World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore
Session Schedule & Abstracts
* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.
|Chair(s): Nicolas Dechy|
1 MANAGEMENT OF UNEXPECTED SITUATIONS DURING MAINTENANCE ACTIVITIES: CONTROLLING RISKS DESPITE UNCERTAINTY. Dechy N., IRSN; Thellier S., IRSN; Rousseau J-M., IRSN; Pansier J., IRSN; Jeffroy F. email@example.com (240)|
Abstract: Maintenance activities requiring a planned outage of a production unit are managed in quite variable conditions and are the framework of several decisions taken to deal with situations linked to unexpected events. The examples given are taken from nuclear power plants and supported by a benchmark across few countries. This kind of outages is therefore generic to many production units although the context of the case study is specific. The first purpose is to provide a case study with several risk management situations in such context and to characterise their key parameters. To address such operational environment, some risk management measures are implemented (planning, preparing, anticipating, managing real time operations, safety trade-offs, coordinating, subcontracting, learning, managing change, human resources management). The second and main purpose is to share how and despite uncertainties raised, their organizational analysis enables to set the foundations for an assessment of factors contributing to risk management. The scale human and organizational factors analysis is quite uncommon and therefore provides a detailed account on management level which is not often shared. The technical debate between the operator and the public expertise institute is also a way to ground the recommendation process. Finally, this analysis leads to discuss more generic issues such as the strategies for stability and flexibility, the effects of sociotechnical complexity, and finally some orders of magnitude of criticality of unexpected events and of the adequacy between the competent resources and the workload.
2 RISK-BASED INDICES AS A TOOL FOR ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL INSTALLATIONS. Bubbico R, "Sapienza" University of Rome, Italy; Mazzarotta B, "Sapienza" University of Rome, Italy firstname.lastname@example.org (186)|
Abstract: The influence of an industrial installation on the surrounding environment is quite complex and difficult to be synthetically represented. Both positive and negative effects are usually present: availability of work places and economic advantages for the local community; environmental pollution and harmful accidental events and many others. A number of methodologies have been proposed to assess the complex interaction between industry and territory. In most cases they address specific issues of this quite complex interaction, such as the polluting effect of the ordinary emissions on the environment or on the public health; safety and health on the workplaces, etc. Recently, an increasing number of methodologies based on risk analysis are considering the accidental events which can have an impact on the surrounding population or environment. Other studies attempt to represent the vulnerability of the surrounding environment. However, these factors have been rarely considered together, to provide a comprehensive view of the interaction between the production site and the surrounding area. Besides the mentioned lack of interconnection, in many cases the methodologies are too generic to provide significant results; conversely, in other cases, the amount of input information required to calculate the indices is so large and so detailed that the procedure becomes too demanding, would the needed data actually be available. In the present work, some available methods are critically analyzed, and a new methodology is proposed, based on risk indices concerning both the negative effects of the industrial site and the sensitive targets of the surrounding environment. This may provide a more realistic representation of the industry-territory interaction, and a significant help to public authorities and decision makers in properly addressing the most critical systemâ€™s elements, thus allowing a sustainable production and a true benefit for the local and global community.
3 Innovative Risk Modeling of Petroleum Crude Oil Transportation Releases. Aguilar Serrano J, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Saat MR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign email@example.com (264)|
Abstract: The recent expansion in the production of shale petroleum crude oil in the United States created a new energy renaissance in the country and worldwide. Combined with the lack of new pipeline construction, the railroads have been placed at the center stage for transporting very large volumes of this commodity. Increasing petroleum crude oil traffic by rail in North America, and several recent severe release incidents highlight the need to further improve railway transportation safety. Accurate estimation of the consequence of a release incident is a key element in risk assessment. Previous methodologies may be overly simplistic or not appropriate to model liquid dangerous goods releases including petroleum crude oil. This paper aims to address this gap and provide a specific methodology for evaluating the consequences of liquid dangerous goods. Liquid dangerous goods releases are mainly governed by the topography in the area of release. This methodology, based on geospatial information, takes into account this unique characteristic. Using the digital elevation model (DEM), this model considers the terrain to accurately estimate the area affected by the release. The methodology is developed using a GIS software. This allows an easy and fast implementation by any factor involve in the risk mitigation process. The modelâ€™s ultimate goal is to provide a tool for emergency responders in a dangerous goods release accident.
4 Resilience in Times of Uncertainty. Wellmann A, Stuttgart University; Hackenbruch J, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Maleska V, TU Dresden; Schulwitz M, ILS â€“ Research Institute for Regional and Urban Development gGmbH firstname.lastname@example.org (355)|
Abstract: Developed as a psychological expression, resilience as concept of achieving a previous state of art after a disastrous event can be applied to a variety of dimensions. Due to globalisation, urban areas are conceived as especially vulnerable to extreme climatic fluctuations. Therefore it is necessary to develop mechanisms in order to strengthen cities against climate change and support the systemâ€™s ability to maintain critical functions in case of emergency. Climate change is expected to intensify climate impacts on cities for example in health sector or urban planning. Especially an increasing probability for heat waves is of rising concern for urban agglomerations in Southern Germany. Increasing the resilience of the urban citizens needs solid information on a scale of urban districts. Regional climate models projections of the future climate provide a database, which can be used to plan and implement coping strategies and adaptation measures. In addition to climate change, demographic change and the economic trend challenge the long-term functionality and financial viability of social and technical infrastructures. Thus, new approaches towards an integrated planning of resilient urban (infra-)structures are inevitable. Hence, resilience, from a spatial plannerâ€™s perspective, includes several issues to consider for long term planning. Especially since long term planning needs reliable statements on future developments. Thus, scenarios are a moderate method to describe possible futures dealing with e.g. land use or climate change effecting e.g. different flood events. They also provide the possibility to describe a bandwidth of uncertainties. By the use of different scenarios suitable measurements and robust strategies to increase the resilience can be identified. The poster will show different interdisciplinary approaches to deal with the topic of resilience.
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