World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Wednesday 22-07-2015

Transportation Risks

Room: Aspiration   15:30–17:00

Chair(s): Tom Beer

1    Acceptance and insurability of autonomous automobiles - A path leading to a non-accident future? Holz A., KIT (60)

Abstract: Automotive manufacturers, suppliers and even career changing enterprises are working intensively on the development and realization of autonomously driving automobiles (last about Daimler on the historic Bertha Benz route from Mannheim to Pforzheim (Germany) or known from the media as "Google cars"). The technology is already well advanced and numerous prototypes are already working today. A more critical long-term problem for the introduction of this technology which has the potential of preventing or reducing traffic accidents (depending on sources about 60 to 90 percent) to save thousands of lives, are legal frameworks, liability issues and the acceptance by its future users. According to the Vienna Convention of 1968, that is followed by Germany's traffic laws and many more worldwide, a driver must always have complete control of his vehicle. At a certain degree of automation this basic condition is no longer met. Today automated driving is subject to product liability acts in most countries, which obliges the manufacturers to full liability for damages caused by their products. In this case: their vehicles. Vehicle manufacturers will have difficulties beginning a series production of autonomous vehicles under these circumstances. A further question is if insurers could offer a useful and even profitable solution here. Finally, the acceptance of autonomous cars is rather poor (about 30%) following resent big scale studies among their potential future users. The research work I intend to present used a survey closing some of current research gaps in the acceptance of autonomous automobiles. In further work these findings will be incorporated into the design of scenarios describing future road transport. Based on these scenarios, future risk potentials of autonomous automobiles as well as dealing with those risks will be analyzed and developed. In the wake of these findings, the conditions of insurability should be identified and thus a reflective and critical contribution to solving one of the biggest obstacles to series introduction of autonomous automobiles are made​​. Keywords: Autonomous driving, scenario techniques, acceptance, Vienna Convention 1968, driving assistance, insurability, Vision Zero, future of mobility

2    MAKING ROUNDABOUTS A SAFE SYSTEM SOLUTION FOR MOTORCYCLISTS. Beer K, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd.; Aninipoc E, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd.; Andrea D, VicRoads; Beer T, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd. (130)

Abstract: Motorcyclists are very vulnerable road users. In Victoria, riders account for 15% of deaths and serious injuries. Over 30% of motorcycle crashes occur at intersections (VicRoads RoadCrash Information System (RCIS)). Roundabouts are considered a ‘Safe System solution’ for intersections because they constrain speeds and impact angles to within biomechanically tolerable levels. VicRoads Safer Roads Infrastructure Program Guidelines (2012) estimate that a roundabout will reduce overall casualty crashes by 85%. Although roundabouts are a positive road safety treatment for motorcyclists they do not show as dramatic a reduction in road trauma as they do for cars. Scully et al. (2006) and Schoon and van Minnen (1993) estimate that roundabouts only reduce causality crashes for motorcyclists by between 36% and 77%. Between 2008 and 2012, there were 159 motorcyclists killed and seriously injured at roundabouts in Victoria. This represents 25% of all serious and fatal crashes at roundabouts (RCIS). This paper reviews roundabout design, maintenance and operation that may influence motorcycle safety. This includes turbo-roundabouts. It also reports the results of an in-depth engineering investigation of some roundabouts in Victoria where motorcycle crashes have occurred. Factors identified and discussed include; geometric design, sight distance, lighting, pavement markings, signing, landscaping, street furniture, speed limits and surface issues. This paper begins the work requested in the 2013 Austroads report Improving the Performance of Safe System Infrastructure wherein it states: “Despite the positive [road safety] results, the two-wheeler risks at roundabouts need to be further reduced in order to reach the Safe System objectives.”

3    Risk Assessment of Adjacent Track Accidents on Shared-Use Rail Corridors. Lin CY, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Saat MR (265)

Abstract: A large number of developments of improved or expanded passenger rail service in the U.S. involves the use of existing railroad infrastructure or rights of way. Shared or Mixed Use Rail Corridors (SRC) refer to different types of passenger and/or freight train operations using common infrastructure in one way or another. There are several safety concerns associated with operating passenger and freight trains on shared-use rail corridors. Adjacent track accident (ATA) is one of the most important concerns. ATA mainly refers to a train accident scenario where a derailed equipment intrudes adjacent tracks, causing operation disturbance and potential subsequent train collisions on the adjacent tracks. Other ATA scenarios include collisions between trains on adjacent tracks (raking), turnouts and railroad crossings. Limited literature is available that addresses the risk of ATA for shared-use rail corridors. The research described in this paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment to identify and quantify the effect of factors affecting the likelihood and consequence of ATA. A discussion on how these factors affect the probability and consequence is provided. A semi-quantitative risk analysis model is developed to evaluate the ATA risk incorporating various factors affecting train accident rate, intrusion rate, train presence rate, and accident consequences. A case study with a hypothetical railroad network is presented to illustrate the potential application of the risk model. This research intends to depict a high-level overview of adjacent track accident risk and provides a basis for future quantitative risk analyses and risk mitigation.

4    Analysis of the social effects of security measures on customers’ security perception. Brauner F, Cologne University of Applied Sciences (CUAS); Fiedrich F, University of Wuppertal; Lechleuthner A, Cologne University of Applied Sciences (CUAS) (125)

Abstract: Public transportation systems are vulnerable in many ways. They form an open and elaborate network used daily by many people, making them soft targets for man-made disasters such as terrorist attacks. Various past events (e.g. Madrid 2004, London 2005, and Mumbai 2006) underscored this phenomenon in a gruesome manner. Public transportation providers try to strengthen security by doing risk management and reduce hazards by adopting preventive security measures. But public transportation systems are also vulnerable from the inside. Every security measure influences the system at different levels—for example, at the operational, legal, ethical, economic, and customer levels. The authors study the effects of security measures at the customer level to strike a right balance of security perception and risk reduction. Therefore, an innovative triangulation method is used to assess the acceptance of security measures in light of risk perception. The elements can be quantified by analyzing the direct influences of security measures on customers and taking into account the perception parameters. Based on the risk perception, a model is created that allows decision-makers to assess the subjective effects of the already implemented and prospective security measures. Misplaced and/or neglected risk perception leads to a lack of confidence caused by a decreasing willingness to use public transportation systems and an increasing individual traffic. This research attempts to integrate social-scientific aspects into risk management. This allows decision-makers to assess a risk management system by gaining an understanding of the effects of security measures on their clientele and to achieve the right balance among effective security measures, customer satisfaction, and efficient protection of public transportation.

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