World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program



Session Schedule & Abstracts


* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Wednesday 22-07-2015

W3-B
Governing Sustainable Energy Demand – An International Perspective

Room: Breakthrough   13:30–15:00

Chair(s): Pia-Johanna Schweizer



1    Risk Allocation and Scale Up of Distributed Energy Resources. Kulatilaka N    (143)

Abstract: Driving investments to clean energy systems has become a top priority in battling climate change. Unlike centralized fossil fuel sources, the deployment of distributed clean energy resources requires bringing together assets that belong to diverse and geographically diffuse owners. Using the example of distributed solar PV, we analyze the schemes that are used to encourage/induce owners of distributed assets to make them available for solar electricity generation. The dominant model in the U.S. and developing nations is long term power purchase agreements (PPA) --frequently referred to as ‘third-party ownership’-- offered to owners/consumers by solar developers. We show that these agreements, viewed as financial contracts, (mis)allocate the electricity rate risk to owners/consumers and impose limitations on scale up of distributed solar. By proper use of financial markets, we argue that it is possible to shift the electricity rate risk from owners/consumers to parties that are better positioned to manage it. The proposed modified contracts simplify the adoption decision for owners/consumers and can lead to a wider adoption. We contend that removing barriers to scale up requires (i) eliminating the tight coupling between consumers and owners that current PPAs create, and (ii) rewarding the owners unambiguously for the assets they provide for generation. These necessitate the transformation of the current intermediary firms into full-fledged distributed generators. We discuss the implications of such a transformation, compare them to “feed-in tariffs” used by most European countries, and show that the broad outline of our analysis can be used to assess scale up schemes in other distributed energy resources as well.

2    Climate Change and Energy Policy in Japan -Possibilities for Policy Integration-. Kubo-Shimamura H    (204)

Abstract: Japanese political and administrative systems experienced changes due to the reforms implemented after the 1990s and after 2009 when the Democratic Party of Japan(DPJ) took control of the government. I examine the possibility of whether these changes may lead to an improvement in measures to counter climate change. I elucidate the possibility of climate change policy integration by the effects of system transitions such as a strengthening of cabinet, shifts in inter-ministerial coordination between Ministry of the Environmental and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and efforts to coordinate between scientific and policy experts. But Japan experience reactions to these changes. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 11th 2011, Japan was at a critical crossroads on promoting renewable energy under the shutdown of nuclear power. But the LDP government which won the election of December 2012 decided to turn away from the DPJ plans to quit nuclear power and the setting of contributable emission reduction target for climate change.

3    Risk governance of induced seismicity by deep geothermal energy. Trutnevyte E, ETH Zurich; Broccardo M, ETH Zurich; Danciu L, ETH Zurich; Esposito S, Mignan A; Stauffacher M; Stojadinovic B; Wiemer S; ETH Zurich   trutnevyte@sccer-soe.ethz.ch (168)

Abstract: Electricity and heat, produced by deep geothermal plants, including their hydrothermal and petrothermal variants, could contribute to mitigating climate change, replacing retiring nuclear plants, and diversifying energy supply in Switzerland. However, these benefits come only with the risk of potentially-damaging induced seismicity. For example, the petrothermal project in Basel in 2006 and the hydrothermal project in St. Gallen in 2013 both induced seismicity of ML=3.4 and ML=3.5 respectively. In line with the analytic-deliberative view, we propose a risk governance framework tailored to induced seismicity risks of deep geothermal projects in Switzerland. This framework takes the perspective of the complete chain of the project: from the need for geothermal energy to site selection, planning, drilling and geothermal reservoir creation, initial reservoir stimulation and water injection, power plant operation, and post-operation. From the analytical perspective, this chain is accompanied by an integrated assessment of (i) seismic hazard, (ii) risk to the built environment, economy and society, and (iii) public concern and induced seismicity preparedness. From the deliberative perspective, this assessment is combined with public and stakeholder engagement process that takes various forms, such as information (from experts to the public and stakeholders), consultation (from the public and stakeholders to experts), collaboration (experts, stakeholders and the public on equal footing), and empowerment of the public and stakeholders. We will introduce this risk governance framework and illustrate it with Swiss examples. State-of-the-art approaches to individual elements of this framework will be overviewed, while missing gaps will be delineated as future research needs.

4    Employees' perception on risk and risk management: evidence from Danish offshore wind industry. Ahsan Dewan, University of Southern Denmark   dah@sam.sdu.dk (300)

Abstract: Production of electricity from offshore wind energy is receiving much priority in several develop and developing countries. Nevertheless, this industry is becoming more expensive and challenging due to various operational and policy related risks factors. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide empirical insight into risks in offshore wind industry as perceived by the workers and managers. The survey has been conducted with the employees who are working in several offshore wind industries in Denmark. It has been revealed that there is a lack of common standard which is resulting in a mismatch between the experiences acquired by the supporting companies and the expectations the clients. It has been perceived that complicated project manuals (because of special and increased requirements from the clients) sometimes create more risk exposures. The employees identified that demand from training is going higher to higher as the clients are often putting much stricter (additional/unnecessary) standards. Gaps in feedback process in incident reporting and risk communication are also considered as vital risk factors. Furthermore, they are also worried about the future public policy towards the offshore wind energy as it is yet unclear what is happening after 2020. Urgent need for common standards (in operational and safety management) is demanding to minimize the business risk. Encouragements of workers’ direct involvement and influence in safety management and decision making process are essential. Furthermore, effective risk communication mechanism is also important to reduce the operational and safety risks. The interviewees also perceived that it is needed to develop more synergies between theory and practice–simulation modelings to tackle the risks.



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