World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program

Session Schedule & Abstracts

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Common abbreviations

Tuesday 21-07-2015

Risk Analysis in the Petroleum Industry

Room: Aspiration   15:30–17:00

Chair(s): Dolruedee Kramnaimuang King

1    Challenges around risk and regulatory discourse in sustaining an energy pipeline industry in Australia. Kramnaimuang King D, Australian National University (201)

Abstract: The energy pipeline industry in Australia assumes a good regulatory standard and is therefore a useful case for analysing how risk is understood and operationalized. Risk-based regulation is embedded in pipeline regulations across all Australian states, requiring industries to demonstrate to regulators how pipeline risks will be controlled to ensure they are ‘as low as reasonably possible or practicable’ (ALARP). Scholars and practitioners argue that such approaches achieve ‘better regulation’ by allowing both industry and regulatory bodies to leverage their resources to optimise risk. This study conducted 62 interviews to explore what conditions have influenced regulatory knowledge and practices in managing risks, who has been involved and how. The results indicate that risk discourse and regulatory action is generated not only by technical issues but also through the interactions of actors and material conditions. The complex relationships among these aspects create greater risks, influencing changes in regulatory practices around operationalizing a risk-based framework. Despite the advantages of risk-based regulation, the results indicate that regulators tend to focus on the outcomes of risk assessment and management, paying comparatively little attention to the processes through which pipeline risks are analysed, who has been involved, and whether the data are valid. Regulators facing resource limits can only partially inspect pipeline risks. The interviews suggest pipeline regulations have been reduced in practice to bureaucratic red-tape for license approval while workforces and the public are relatively disengaged in analysing risks. Deregulation in pipelines creates stewardship complexity among owners, operators and contractor chains, leading to deficits in accountability. The findings challenge discourses on inclusive deliberation and accountability in managing energy pipeline risks, opening spaces for potential sustainable improvements in risk-based frameworks.

2    Risk-based Sustainable Biorefinery Location Design. Bai Yun, Rutgers University (136)

Abstract: The United States is increasing its bio-ethanol production to improve its energy security and environmental sustainability. In the meantime, the ever-growing bio-ethanol production poses considerable challenges to the emerging bio-energy supply chain, particularly when the refineries undergo the risk of operation disruptions due to natural or man-made hazards. Risk-based supply chain design is on the forefront of interdisciplinary research coupling risk analysis and systems optimization. This research develops novel discrete and continuous risk-based facility location models to the design of sustainable bio-ethanol supply chains so that the system can hedge against potential natural or man-made disruptions. The discrete model is shown to be suitable for obtaining the exact optimality for small or moderate instances, while the continuous model has superior computational tractability for large-scale applications. The impacts of both site-independent and dependent disruptions are analyzed in empirical case study for the State of Illinois (one of the main biomass supply states in the U.S.). The risk-based solution is compared with a deterministic solution under the same setting. It is found that refinery disruptions, especially those site-dependent ones, affect both optimal refinery deployment and the supply chain cost. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to show how refinery failure probability and fixed cost (for building bio-refineries) affect optimal supply chain configuration and the total expected system cost.

3    An Integrated Risk Analysis Model for Petroleum Crude Oil Transportation by Rail. Liu X, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (137)

Abstract: North America is experiencing an unprecedented boom in the production of petroleum crude oil and natural gases from shale. Consequently, this has led to a significant growth in rail transport of flammable liquid materials. In 2013, there were nearly 400,000 rail carloads of petroleum crude oil over American rail network, a 7,000 percent increase since 2005. Meanwhile, a chain of recent severe crude oil train release incidents intensifies national attention to the safety of rail transport of petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids, which are shipped in large blocks of tank cars or in entire trains. By contrast with hazardous materials truck accidents that usually involves a single tank trailer, a train accident may involve multiple crude oil tank cars derailing and releasing, with consequently greater potential impacts on human health, property and the environment. This paper develops a generalized, integrated risk analysis model for rail transport of petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids. A Poisson binomial model is developed to estimate the number of tank cars releasing, accounting for infrastructure condition, train configuration, train speed, tank car design features and the placement of tank cars in the train. Besides, the consequence of a crude oil release incident is measured by the number of affected population and estimated based on a geographical information system (GIS) framework. Compared to the existing work in the field, the generalized risk analysis model accounts for all principal risk factors and the corresponding risk mitigation solutions. The risk model can be applied to any infrastructure, train, and operational scenarios. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of model to evaluating route-specific railroad crude oil transportation risk and effectiveness of tank car design improvement on reducing the risk.

4    Analysis of risk perception on hydrogen fueling stations in Japan based on Preliminary survey. Ono K, RISS, AIST; Tsunemi K, RISS, AIST (166)

Abstract: Hydrogen storage facilities, such as hydrogen fueling station (H2 station), are inevitable infrastructure for the utility of fuel cell vehicles. We are interested in the public acceptance of H2 stations and how the installation of these H2 stations is perceived by the public. In our previous study, we constructed a cognitive map of Japanese people according to a preliminary online survey, in which we asked respondents on risk perception for 20 hazard items (e.g., disasters including explosions or burning H2 stations, and new technologies). We conducted another online survey (N: 2069) in order to investigate the relationship between the acceptance of H2 stations and people’s risk perceptions. The result showed that 65% of people accepted the installation of H2 stations. Men showed 10% of higher acceptance than women. We also analyzed characteristics in risk perceptions and acceptance on by categorized groups (e.g., sex, educational background, use frequency of private car or public transportation, and distance between respondent’s house and a nearest gas station). The result showed that respondents who lived farther than 1 km from a gas station tended to be less accepting of H2 stations and they had stronger “dread” and/or “unknown” feelings about H2 stations. This indicates that cognition of H2 stations might be constructed according to an analogical image of gas stations.

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