World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program



Session Schedule & Abstracts


* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Sunday 19-07-2015

Poster Session
Monday through Wednesday (20-07-2015 to 22-07-2015)

Room:    08:00–17:00



1  Geophysical Risk (incorporating climate and climate change risks and the risks of extreme events). Switzer A, Earth Observatory Singapore, Nyanyang Technical University; McAdoo B, Yale-NUS College; Beer T, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd; McBride J, Centre for Climate Research, Singapore   tom.beer@safesystemsolutions.com.au (58)

Abstract: Convenors: Tom Beer - Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia (President, SRA-ANZ tom.beer@safesystemsolutions.com.au Adam Switzer – Earth Observatory Singapore, Nyanyang Technical University, Singapore aswitzer@ntu.edu.sg Brian McAdoo – Yale-NUS College brian.mcadoo@yale-nus.edu.sg John McBride – Centre for Climate Research, Singapore j.mcbride@internode.on.net One of the most readily visible manifestation of climate change is the increased incidence of geophysical extreme events including floods, droughts and fires. The risks posed by these events range from the subtle - where decreased frost occurrence reduces pome fruit yields - to the disastrous - where floods, coastal storms and wildfires destroy lives and livelihoods. In developed countries extreme events and disasters primarily affect infrastructure and property, resulting in high economic losses. In developing countries such events cause significant fatalities. This proposal solicits papers that deal with all aspects of geophysical risk, where geophysics is used in the widest sense to include solid earth risks such as earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides; fluid earth risks such as floods, fires, droughts, tsunamis and storm surges; as well as planetary risks including the risks associated with climate change and extreme impact events.

2  Development of a risk based index for ranking landfills and its application in Kerala, India. Paremmal Avinash, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Calicut; George Athulya S., Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Calicut; Raveendran Gopika, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Calicut; Varghese George K., Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Calicut   gkv@nitc.ac.in (278)

Abstract: Kerala, located in the southern end of Indian subcontinent is renowned all over the world for its natural beauty and serenity. Due to rapid population growth and changes in life styles a significant increase in solid waste generation is observed in Kerala in the last few years. Landfilling is the most widely followed method for the disposal of this solid waste. The dumping of solid waste in uncontrolled landfills has caused significant impacts on the environment and human health. If these landfills are to be prioritized for remedial action, a suitable ranking system is required. Ranking the landfill sites allow councils to set priorities, target monitoring and implement appropriate management plans for the environment. A risk based index, Landfill Risk Index(LRI), was developed for the purpose of ranking landfills. Risk is the combination of the probability or frequency of occurrence of a defined hazard and the magnitude of its consequence of occurrence. This project took into consideration the risks posed by a landfill to the surrounding ecosystem, human health, and the socio-cultural and economic environment of human beings. The concept of probability associated with risk is incorporated in the index calculation by considering the exposure pathway vulnerability. A sub index was developed corresponding to the risk posed to each of the above mentioned component by the landfill. The weights given for different components and sub-indices were obtained through an online Delphi conducted choosing experts from various parts of the world. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to analyze the response from experts. The LRI was applied to four important and problematic landfills of the state of Kerala. The high LRIs associated with these landfills indicate the high risks they pose to the surrounding environment.

3  A Morphological Effective Systemic Epigraph (MESE) for Syndemic Pathology and System Design. Convertino MC, University of Minnesota; Liu YL, University of Minnesota   matteoc@umn.edu (272)

Abstract: Predictive tools of population health trajectory are very often statistical tools with little consideration of the physics of the problem and related uncertainty. Thus, these models lack of a full exploration of all potential population health causes and trajectories and cannot be used for identifying system design alternative and control strategies that minimize morbidity and mortality over space and time. For this purpose a Morphological Effective Systemic EpiGraph model (MESE) is proposed. MESE, inspired by hydrogeomorphological models, allows to determine principal webs of transmission, factors causing disease production and persistence, disease spreading and incidence. The case of fast infectious diseases is proposed as a blueprint of the model but the application of MESE can be extended to the analysis of socially communicable diseases, chronic disease generated by environmental exposures, and physiological disease development processes. Predictions are tested against real data of syndemics in the Central Africa band from 2009 to 2014. Infectious diseases that are simultaneously reproduced are malaria, dengue, cholera, meningitis measles, Typhoid fever, human influenza, and tuberculosis. Importance and synergy of socio-environmental factors is assessed along the Central Africa band to determine syndemic diversity by just making use of one disease prediction and few disease determinants. Beyond disease predictions, MESE model is able to inform about disease latency time, disease determinant causality, interaction with other determinants, and the likely transmission networks producing the disease. Thus, MESE can be used to both answer basic research questions related to disease production in populations, and practical questions related to the detection of disease hotspots, early warning signals, and optimal control strategies. The model can also be used a real-time artificial intelligence cyber-infrastructure for public health surveillance.

4  On the dynamic measurement of capital adequacy and leverage for Basel III. Gan Vincent, Putra Business School, Universiti Putra Malaysia; Azhar Abdul Karim Mohd, Department of Accounting and Finance, Universiti Putra Malaysia   gan.phd11@grad.putrabs.edu.my (268)

Abstract: The Basel Accords measures capital adequacy and insolvency risk with two risk ratios.The first is the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR).The second is the leverage ratio.The Basel Committee reported for the first time a great degree of variation in risk ratioss that were due to different interpretation of internal ratings based models by different banks driven by different asset composition, supervisory practices and individual bank preferences. This difficulty in interpretation is further compounded by the lack of normality present in capital ratios, thus, severely reducing comparability among banks and across multiple time periods. The functional form of the capital adequacy and leverage ratio themselves pose a problem to dynamic measurement. These ratios are static in nature.In reality, this is not the case and capital or risk metrics have to be dynamic in adapting to changes in the market or within the firm so that risk management can be dynamic as well.As far as we are aware, there is no known dynamic metric of both volume and quality of risk and capital simultaneously.The objective of this paper is to design and construct an index of capital adequacy and insolvency risk within a framework that is simple, comparable, risk sensitive and that is time dynamic and time consistent across banks and multiple time periods.We demonstrate how to innovatively integrate both the dynamic capital and insolvency index into a single novel dynamic index of capital and risk. Finally,we demonstrate the applicability of the new capital and risk indexes with quarterly balance sheet data of Goldman Sachs. We show that the new integrated dynamic index is simple, comparable and risk sensitive across multiple time periods but yet robust to outliers and non-normality. We believe this is the first of such index to be proposed.

5  Human Actors’ Roles in Holistic Cyber Security Risk Assessment. Cains M, Indiana University; Henshel D, Indiana University; Alexeev A, Indiana University; Rajivan P, Indiana University   marianacains@gmail.com (246)

Abstract: Holistic assessment of cyber security risks is a complex multi-component and multi-level problem involving technical, software, environmental, and human factors. Parameterization of measurement of the human component is the most difficult problem. This study develops a framework identifying characteristics of human actors (defenders, users, attackers) in order to incorporate these characteristics as parameters in a holistic cyber security risk assessment model. Starting with the defender we have identified the following parameters as integral parts of the cyber security system: education, experience, skill, physical health, and mental health. Note that these do not identify the measurement metrics, rather the assessment metrics. Understanding how human factors impact cyber security allows for a risk assessment that recognizes the contextual importance of the decision-makers.

6  A game-theoretic model for risk sharing between public and private sectors against catastrophic risks. Wang C, Tsinghua University; Zhang Y, Tsinghua University   chenwang@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn (206)

Abstract: Public-private insurance programs can provide financial protection against catastrophic risks. We propose a sequential game with two players, the government and an insurer, to investigate how the government can involve private sectors to avoid the need for large reserves, while limiting their profits which could compromise the social welfare. We are especially interested in investigating whether this type of partnership is financially sustainable. We consider both natural and terrorism threats, assuming natural hazards to have considerably less ambiguity than terrorism risks.

7  A study on Risk Communication: case of Avian Influenza in Korea. Yi J.C, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University   iflowave@gmail.com (229)

Abstract: Risk communication is an process to publicize what is the risk and how to deal with it. In this process, the role of mass media is important because it mediate the expert and the public. The media has to not just simply report disaster but sufficiently address the causes of problems and alternative proposals and performs analytical, proactive capabilities. January 16, 2014 5th highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred in the Republic of Korea. This AI crisis is generating largest damage ever with most longest period ever not yet ended. This case could be viewed as a prime example of how practically risk communication is working. This study analyses how major Korean newspapers report the Avian Influenza and how they changed their aspect in terms of Risk Communication. In Korea, Avian Influenza has occurred over 3-4 years period since 2003. Each time, there have been voices that pointing out external factors such as migratory bird and internal factors such as factory farming. In 2014 case, because of a different kind of virus A5N8 which is not reported human infection case yet, communities focus on economic aspect of the outbreaks and ethical issues of mass cull of poultry rather than the risk of human infection.

8  Projecting low-dose associated radiation risks by a semi-parametric dose response model. Furukawa Kyoji, Radiation Effects Research Foundaiton   furukawa@rerf.or.jp (150)

Abstract: Radiation risks estimated from epidemiological studies allow us to project long-term health effects in a population exposed environmentally or occupationally, or evaluate the risk relative to potential benefits due to medical exposure for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes. However, much of the quantitative information has been derived from observations at relatively high doses, and we have limited knowledge about the possible biological effects at low doses, e.g., <0.1Gy, which are most relevant in many exposed populations. In particular, the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, an important source of information for the long-term health effects of radiation exposures, has about 80% of the exposed members with doses <0.1Gy; nevertheless, it is not sufficient to fully understand the low-dose-associated risks. To describe the radiation dose response relationship for solid cancer, the simple linear dose response model has been recommended as most plausible in many radiation protection standards. In risk analysis under such a simple parametric model, however, observations at high doses may be much more influential on the dose response estimation than elsewhere, which can lead to unrealistic risk estimates and uncertainty at low doses. The low dose risk is likely small but the impact of this may not be small if the risk is projected on a very large population. As an alternative approach, we consider use of non-parametric smoothing methods that can flexibly fit reasonably smooth dose response curves while adequately handling the estimation uncertainty. In particular, we focus on a Bayesian semi-parametric model based on a piecewise linear model with priors allowing for autocorrelation between adjacent line sections. This approach is applied to estimate the radiation associated cancer risk in the LSS, which are then used in risk projections on a low-dose exposed population. Projected risks are compared with those based on other approaches.

9  NICOTINE AS AN INDICATOR OF TOBACCO EXPOSURE AND ITS EFFECT ON ORAL HEALTH. katpattil ss, yenepoya university   drsabinsiddique@gmail.com (174)

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is termed as modern global epidemic. Nicotine is considered the most pharmacologically active component in tobacco. Thus the present study is undertaken to assess and correlate the periodontal status of 35-44 year old male tobacco users with their nicotine concentration in Blood and Urine. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to (a) Assess the periodontal status of 35-44 year old tobacco users using Community Periodontal Index. (b) Estimation of Nicotine levels in Blood and Urine by Spectrophotometry. (c) Correlation between Nicotine levels in the Blood and Urine samples of the subjects and their periodontal status. METHODS: A cross sectional institution based study was conducted to assess the periodontal status of different tobacco users and the nicotine concentration in their blood and urine. The study instrument consisted of a questionnaire for recording information on tobacco use. The clinical data was recorded using Community Periodontal Index. The concentration of nicotine in blood and urine was estimated by Spectrophotometry. Karl Pearson Correlation tests were used and data was analysed using SPSS -17software. RESULTS: In this study of 150 male subjects, the findings showed tobacco users with the highest prevalence of periodontal disease. When blood and urine nicotine levels were compared with various forms of tobacco users, the nicotine levels was maximum in beedi smokers and minimum in cigarette smokers. However, there was no significant correlation when periodontal status was correlated with nicotine levels in blood and urine (p>0.0005). CONCLUSION: The findings suggested a marked association between tobacco use and prevalence of periodontal disease. The present study showed that blood and urine nicotine level is increased in various tobacco users compared to non-tobacco users. The nicotine levels in blood and urine may be considered as good indicators to assess the exposure to tobacco in our population.

10  PALATAL RUGAE - A TOOL IN FORENSIC IDENTIFICATION. katpattil ss, yenepoya university   drsabinsiddique@gmail.com (175)

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: 1. To classify the rugae pattern among different groups using Thomas and Kotze classification 2. To find out the most common pattern in individual groups 3. To compare palatal rugae among different groups METHODS: Maxillary impressions of volunteers of various age groups ranging from 18 to 50 years were made with the help of alginate impression materials. Casts were prepared out of impression. The palatal rugae were assessed based on Thomas and Kotze classification of rugae pattern (1972). The association between rugae shape and ethnicity was tested using Chi-square analysis and comparison between the groups for different parameters was done using Student t test. RESULTS: After analyzing the rugae patterns in all the three groups and between the 2 sides of the palate, we found that curved shape was common among Indians and wavy shape among Tibetans and Malaysians while circular pattern was the least common among all three population. The analysis of the palatal rugae and their features can be used as a reliable guide to the forensic identification.This study demonstrates a significant variation in the rugae patterns of the study populations. Parameters like the length and shape of the rugae show racial differences. CONCLUSION: Rugae patterns have great utility in population differentiation and should be examined in detail in large samples to further validate our findings. Rugae are unique to an individual and are sufficiently characteristic to distinguish between individuals specially in mass disasters.

11  KNOWLEDGE AND ATTITUDE REGARDING HEPATITIS B VIRUS INFECTION AND VACCINE AMONG HOSPITAL PATIENTS. katpattil ss, yenepoya university   drsabinsiddique@gmail.com (177)

Abstract: Background: Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infection caused by the hepatitis B virus. It is the most serious type of viral hepatitis. About 400 million people have the virus, with most of these people living in Asia. Clearly, this is a significant public health and medical problem. With this background, the study was conducted to evaluate knowledge and attitude regarding HBV (Hepatitis B virus) infection and its vaccine among the patients attending tertiary care hospital. Materials and Methods: A Cross-sectional study was done among 856 patients attending a tertiary care hospital, at Mangalore, India, from November 2010 to May 2011after approval from the institutional ethical committee. A pretested structured questionnaire was used to measure the participants’ knowledge and attitude regarding HBV (Hepatitis B virus) infection and its vaccine after obtaining informed consent. Results: In all, 856 patients (698 male and 158 female) were studied. 50% of those who were aware had no knowledge about route of transmission, infectivity, or importance of vaccination. Educated individuals were more aware about Hepatitis B vaccine (P< 0.05). The percentage of vaccination was 25% among study subjects. Lack of awareness was the common reason for non - vaccination (50%); of them. Conclusions: Knowledge of Hepatitis B disease and vaccine was low and misconceptions were common. About One third of the population are vaccinated for Hepatitis B. Emphasis should especially be laid on awareness campaigns to educate the public that Hepatitis B is vaccine preventable disease. Knowledge of the Hepatitis B disease may be useful in determining health care interventions strengthening community-based care for patients.

12  ASPARTATE AMINOTRANSFERASE AS A BIOMARKER IN PERIODONTAL DISEASE. katpattil ss, yenepoya university   drsabinsiddique@gmail.com (178)

Abstract: Objectives: To estimate AST levels in saliva of patients with periodontal disease. Materials and methods: Twenty patients were assigned to each one of three groups C0, C3 and C4, based on their largest Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Needs CPITN code, totaling 60 participants. Immediately after a single mouth rinse with 15ml of water to wash out exfoliated cells, about 1ml of unstimulated saliva was collected in a sterile plastic containers and transported to the Biochemical Laboratory for spectrophotometric analysis. Results: There were significant differences between levels of AST from groups C0, C3 and C4. There was a significant positive correlation between clinical parameters and AST concentration in saliva in each group. There was no statistical significance between males and females in all three groups. Conclusion: AST levels in saliva increased with increase in the CPITN score. Group C0 had the least while group C4 had the highest AST levels. High levels of Aspartate aminotransferase are characteristic features of periodontitis affected subjects. Hence, monitoring the levels of Aspartate aminotransferase in saliva could be utilized as periodontal disease markers.

13  Weather, Climate and Food Security: A Geophysical Perspective. BEER T, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd   tom.beer@safesystemsolutions.com.au (131)

Abstract: To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) is leading the WeatCliFS consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatCliFS: What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards [such as famine] – and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales? This poster describes the response of the scientific community through the Future Earth program and point out the direction for future research.

14  ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HAZARDS TO RECEPTORS POPULATIONS. Subramaniam Karuppannan K, CORE DDH UiTM Shah & UiTM Puncak Alam; Mohd Rafee Baharuddin MRB, University Putra Malaysia; Mukherjee T.K., Open University of Malaysia   uitmsubra@yahoo.com (97)

Abstract: ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS IN MALAYSIA *Subramaniam K.1, Mukherjee T.K.2, and Mohd.Rafee B.3 1CoRE DDH-UiTM Shah Alam & FSK UiTM Puncak Alam 2FST Open University Malaysia & 3OSHMO University Putra Malaysia. *Corresponding Author: Tel: +60126923264, Email: subra@salam.uitm.edu.my or uitmsubra@yahoo.com Abstract Background: Development led to environmental impacts with health effects to receptor populations needed a QRA study to develop risk management decisions via better environmental management. Methods: Environmental samples (n=31) each at two sites, with air, river water, and noise pollution while waste was analyzed separately. A public survey (n=148) determined hazard perceptions and risk ranking based on QRA risk calculations (DOE, 2004). Results: Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) analysis in Malaysia revealed that Department of Environment (DOE) (1988-2008) evaluated EIA reports (n=4412) with a slightly rising trend with a R2 value = 0.81326. Inferential analysis on the EIA reports in 1998-2008 showed a mean value=210±109 for the 21 years period with no significant (p>0.05) for two periods evened out to 20 years period representing two periods namely 1st period (1988-1997) and 2nd period (1998–2007). Comparatively risk analysis had a poor result with a significance (p<0.05) for the Period 1 (1988-1997) compared to Period 2 (1998-2007) where there was a clear decline in trend for risk analysis reports with a linear trend (¥=-0.413x+9.923 with a R²=0.23). Inferential evaluations for risk analysis performed for DOE EIA submissions during 1988-2008, revealed a total number of 112 reports with a mean=5±5 reports for 21years period. Comparative analysis for Period 1 (1988-1997) to Period 2 (1998-2008) showed a significant difference (p<0.05) with a p-value=0.043; and a t-value=2.175. The mean value for 1st decade was 7±4 reports and the 2nd decade was 3±5 and a standard mean difference of 4. When further analyzed, there were NO risk analysis reports submitted to DOE, since 2001 until 2008 (except 2 reports in 2005) for a period of 7 years. Conclusion: With proper EIA reporting the environmental management is often beneficial to risk managers but when risk analysis is neglected than possible infringement may occur with a need for better holistic risk management that ensures hazard mitigation and to minimize impacts. Keywords: Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Introduction Malaysia is a developing country, where industrial development and rapid urbanization with huge rise in population have given rise to various impacts to the environment and the human health in the receptor population. Generally these environmental hazards are classified as physical, chemical and biological affecting the environment and with direct consequences on receptor populations especially on human safety and their health leading to various human risks or acute and chronic impacts. Municipalities in Malaysia are the main land administrators and any development lies within their jurisdictions, hence these environmental impacts need to be managed by them to reduce and mitigate the hazards faced by the receptor populations. Materials & Methods This cross-sectional study on existing secondary data available at the Department of Environment and followed by both descriptive and inferential analysis on the trend in Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) report submissions As complying with the provisions of the Environmental Quality Act 1974 (a good practice in environmental risk management). Later we compared the output with the analysis on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) conducted a s a part of compliance of the risk analysis requirements in Malaysia in 2012. Results Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) analysis in Malaysia revealed that Department of Environment (DOE) (1988-2008) managed to evaluate 4412 EIA reports (n=4412) with a slightly rising trend with a R2 value = 0.81326. Inferential analysis on the EIA reports in 1998-2008 showed a mean value=210±109 for the 21 years period. Further statistical analysis had no significant (p>0.05) for two periods evened out to 20 years period representing two periods (by decades) namely 1st period (1988-1997) and 2nd period (1998–2007). (Table 1). Table 1: Inferential Analysis of EIA reports to DOE with Risk Analysis (independent samples t-tests) Variables Tested (n = 20) (Mean±SD) (n=10) t-value p-value EIA reports 1st decade (1988-1997) 224±142 0.560 0.585 EIA reports 2nd decade (1998-2007) 196±73 *Alpha set with a p-value with significance set at p<0.05. Descriptive analysis compared for significance (p<0.05) had a lack of Risk Analysis in DOE for Period 1 (1988-1997) compared to Period 2 (1998-2007) in Malaysia showed a clear decline for risk analysis for Period 1 compared to Period 2 with a linear trend (¥=-0.413x+9.923 with a R²=0.23) in comparison with the EIA submissions. (Figure 1). Figure 1: Inferential Analysis of Risk Analysis (RA) in EIA Reports to DOE from 1988-2007 Inferential evaluations for risk analysis performed for DOE EIA submissions during 1988-2008, revealed a total number of 112 reports with a mean=5±5 reports for 21years period. Comparative analysis for Period 1 (1988-1997) to Period 2 (1998-2008) showed a significant difference (p<0.05) with a p-value=0.043; and a t-value=2.175. The mean value for 1st decade was 7±4 reports and the 2nd decade was 3±5 and a standard mean difference of 4. When further analysed, there were NO risk analysis reports submitted to DOE, since 2001 until 2008 (except 2 reports in 2005) for a period of 7 years. Table 2: Inferential Analysis of Risk Analysis reports to DOE (using independent samples t-tests) Variables Tested (n = 20) (Mean±SD) (n=10) t-value p-value Risk analysis 1st Period (1988-1997) 7±4 0.589 0.043* Risk analysis 2nd Period (1998-2007) 3±5 * Alpha set at a p-value with a significance at p<0.05. Discussions The data analysis showed the mandatory requirements for submissions of Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) report and the utilization of Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) as required under the provisions of the Environmental Quality Act 1974 (EQA 1974) in Malaysia. Somehow there was slightly rising trend in environment impact assessment (EIA) report submissions but for QRA reports there was a decline and no reports for risk analysis for 2005 onwards. There were EIA studies in Malaysia but there was a lack of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and this may lead to potentially poorer environmental risk management leading to mandatory infringements. Conclusions The EIA carried out may address the issues leading to future environmental degradation and ensure better living environment for Malaysians generally but QRA is a quantification analysis which may help identify significant environmental impacts that need to be mitigated. This comparison showed evidence of poor risk management and a need for a holistic implementation of better risk management to ensure hazards are mitigated to minimize all impacts to specifically the human receptor populations and generally the environment. The risk managers will always have to make decisions under uncertainty with limited resources at hand. When measuring effectiveness the difficulty is that most environmental health risks are low compared with the risks of such directly countable effects as occupational injuries, motor-vehicle collisions, infant mortality, total cancer rates, and total birth defect rates. An example of a particular exposure is expected to cause no more than one additional case of cancer per year in a population of 10,000 and action is taken to reduce exposure to a level anticipated to cause, at most, one additional case of cancer per year in one million people (corresponding to one extra case per 100 years in that population of 10,000). With or without this action, cancer still will be the cause of death in 24% of the population. No health study or surveillance activity can measure the very small decrease in cancer incidence that would occur at the lower exposure level. Instead, risk managers must rely on indirect measures that indicate cancer incidence may decrease such as decreased emissions, decreased exposure, and possibly decreases in biological markers of exposure or effects. Progress is needed in several areas if we are to improve our ability to implement and measure the effectiveness of public health interventions. There are some issues in the interpretation of health impact assessments, where results require not only clear presentation, but also coherent interpretation, including explicit discussion of assumptions and limitations. Specific components of the overall uncertainty and their potential impact on the results should be addressed, as discussed above. Sensitivity analyses, in which the effects of key assumptions are explored quantitatively, may provide a better sense of the overall uncertainty of the estimates than purely qualitative discussion, and should be performed when appropriate (WHO, 2010). In general, the direct effect of the removal of a particular exposure may only rarely be estimated. Depending on the health outcome, the specificity of the exposure, and the time frame of exposure and effect, the benefit (or reversibility) may be realized either much later than predicted, or not to the full extent. In particular, removal of the environmental hazard may not prevent the occurrence of the estimated number of cases due to how competing risks may come into play if one contributing cause (the exposure) is removed or reduced. The WHO statement clearly demonstrates that environmental health risk assessment contributes increasingly to policy development, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. It also often plays an important role in cost-benefit analysis and risk communication. Its credibility depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. Epidemiology, toxicology, clinical medicine, and environmental exposure assessment all contribute information for risk assessment. Principles of risk management (ASTM, 1997) are the management of risk should be holistic; should begin with the ends and consequences in mind; able to identify and involve the stakeholders in the process; should integrate science, law and societal values; evaluate concurrently the potential human health and ecological risks; review concurrently information from all sources; include the elements of risk characterization, such as risk prioritization, evaluation of sources, magnitude and impact of uncertainty, review of relevant law, regulations and policy, and evaluation of management alternatives; and, any action should result in a net increase in benefit, as compared to no action. Ethical considerations Ethical issues (Including plagiarism, informed consent, misconduct, data fabrication and/or falsification, double publication and/or submission, redundancy, etc.) have been completely observed by the authors. Acknowledgments We thank all subjects who volunteered to participate in this study. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest. The researchers did not have any conflict of interest with any funding for this study, as it was self-funded. References Agamuthu, P., and; Fauziah, S.H. (2010). Heavy Metal Pollution in Landfill Environment: A Malaysian Case Study. Presented at the 4th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering (iCBBE), 18-20 June 2010, Page: 1 – 4, ISSN: 2151-7614 , ISBN: 978-1-4244-4712-1. Department of Environment (DOE). (2009). DOE Annual Report, 2008. DOE, 2009. (www.doe.gov.my) Department of Environment (DOE). (2012). DOE Annual Report, 2012. DOE, 20129. (www.doe.gov.my) Griffith, J; Duncan, R.C.; Riggan, W.B.; and Pellom, A.C. (1989). Cancer mortality in U.S. counties with hazardous waste sites and ground water pollution. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Archives of Environmental Health. 1989 Mar-Apr;44(2):69-74. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2930248). Selangor State Government. (2010). Complaints by Locality in Selangor State. (Accessed on 5.9.2010). (http://stars.selangor.gov.my/). Subramaniam, K.; Mukherjee, T.K.; and, Mohamed Rafee, B. (2011). Quantitative Risk Assessment of Environmental Hazards and Risks to Receptor Populations. Oral Presentation in Regional Conference on Health Sciences and Nursing at Shah Alam Conference Centre, 22-24 February, 2011. Subramaniam K., Mukherjee, T.K. (2009). Quantitative Risk Assessment on Environmental Pollution and Risks to Receptor Populations in a Municipality in Malaysia. Oral Presentation in International Scientific Conference at First World Hotel, Genting Highlands, 6-9 November 2009. Subramaniam K., Mohd.Rafee Baharuddin. Mukherjee T.K. (2014). Quantitative Risk Assessment of Environmental Hazards to Receptors in Kuala Langat. International Conference on Occupational and Environmental Health (ICEOH 2014) at Marriot Putrajaya Malaysia, 7th – 9th April 2014. Bahaa-eldin E. A.R; Abdul Rahim S.; Wan Zuhairi W. Y.; Abdul Ghani M. R.; and, Yusoff. (2008). Draft Paper for Sediment and Soil Contamination Journal. 17 (5). (Accepted for publication for September/October 2008 issue, vol. 15, No 5). World Health Organization - WHO. (2010). Safe water, Better health. World Health Organization (WHO).(2010). (http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/publications/safer_water/en/index.html). American Society of Testing & Materials (ASTM).(1997). Framework for Managing Environmental Risks. ASTM.

15  DENSITY ESTIMATION FOR NON – DIVERSIFIABLE RISK USING KERNELS WITH WHITE NOISE IN DECISION MAKING. ANYIKA EMMA, MOUNT KENYA UNIVERSITY   mmnk55378@gmail.com (135)

Abstract: The probability element is important in investment decision making process since it helps address the problem of uncertainty. Many of the investment decision making methods have incorporated the expectation and risk of an event in making investment decisions. Most of those that use risk account for diversifiable risk only thus limiting the predictability element of these investment methods since total risk are not properly accounted for. A few of these methods include the certainty (probability) element. These include Value at Risk method which uses covariance matrices as total risk and the binning system which always assumes normal distribution and thus does not take care of discrete cases. Moreover comparison among various entities lacks since the probabilities derived are for individual entities and are just quantile values. Finite investment decision making using real market risk (Non-diversifiable risk) is to be under taken in this study. Non-diversifiable risk estimates of a portfolio of stocks determined by a Real Risk Weighted Pricing model are used as initial data. The variance of non-diversifiable risk is estimated as a random variable referred to as random error (white noise). The estimator is used to calculate estimates of white noise (wn). A curve estimation of the wn is made using Kernel density estimation. This is used to derive probability estimates of the non-diversifiable risks of the various stocks. This enables determination of total risk with given probabilities of its occurrence thus facilitating decision making under risky and uncertain situations as well as accentuating comparison among the portfolio of stocks. Key words: Curve estimation; Non-diversifiable risk; Probability estimates; Random variable

16  How Information Fragments Influence GMF Risk evaluation: Evidence From China. she s, Guilin University of Technology, School of Management; wang Z, Guilin University of Technology, School of Management   sheshengxiang1981@126.com (134)

Abstract: Introduction: The increasing debates on the benefits and risks of GMF in China are hindering the development of GMF industry. This research investigates how fragmented information influence evaluation of GMF risk with the focus on the irrational process which involved emotional reactions. Hypotheses: We are concerned with the information fragment about the type of GMF risk, i.e. the causes and consequences. H1: Perceived risks, consequence-based emotions and action tendencies are more intense if the consequences of GMF are harmful for humans than if they affect only the natural environment. H2: Perceived risks, ethics-based emotions and action tendencies are more intense for illegal GMF than for approved GMF. Design: 215 undergraduates participated in the study. Two independent variables about risk type (legal vs. illegal; Human vs. nature) were manipulated by providing four versions of fictitious scenarios about GMF risks. Dependent variables: Perceived risk was measured by overall risk, risk for humans and risk for nature. Participants indicated how intensely they felt each of 12 specific emotions. 12 behaviors were presented to participants who rated for each behavior how much they felt inclined to perform it. Main Results: Factor analyses of the emotion ratings yield three factors which explain 62.28% of the variance. The factor solutions support the theoretical distinction between consequence-based and ethics-based emotions. An analogous twofold classification as for emotions is applied for action tendencies. We found GMF risk only harmful for health caused higher perceived overall risk, and yield stronger consequentialist emotions as well as consequentialist intentions than risk only harmful for environment. But risk for health does not differ across risk types. Illegal GMF risk caused higher perceived overall risk, risk for health and risk for nature (the latter two are insignificant while yield stronger ethical emotions and ethical intentions. Implications are discussed.

17  Risk Assessment of Fish Farms. MERT BULUT, Aquaculture Engineer, Msc- Job Safety Specialist-Ph.D. Candidate Ege University; ERCAN PINAR, Food Engineer, Msc -Job Safety Specialist- Ph.D. candidate, Ege University   pinarercan@yandex.com (98)

Abstract: Risk assessments are the studies by the aim of identification of hazards that exist or may come from outside the workplace, analyzing and grading the risks arising from the hazards and risk factors that lead to the transformation of these hazards and control measures to be agreed. Fish farms is one of the most important business area where there are many of the hazards and risks, so fish farms should be evaluated for the risk assessment. The aim of this study is to identify the hazards, assess the risks, check the carrying out the risk assessment and safety regulations in the fish farms in Izmır Turkey.

18  The wave theory of catastrophes and the development of risk theory. Svetlana Baida, Doctor, Head of Department of Risk Analysis   oktaedr@yandex.ru (115)

Abstract: Modern risk theory is based on probabilistic, logical-probabilistic and deterministic methods of analysis of the probabilities of occurrence of various threats and losses. The next stage in the risk theory development should be the shift to numerical methods for comprehensive analysis of various factors and establishment of the patterns of occurrence of mega-catastrophes and risks of various natures. Understanding the patterns of mega-disaster occurrence allows their forecast and risk assessment based on numerical methods. It increases the reliability and accuracy of forecasts and estimates in time and space. An analytical method has been developed for the study of the multifactorial impact of physical and non-physical processes on the creation of conditions for the emergence of mega-catastrophes. The analytical method is based on the frequency statistical analysis of disaster databases and the transient processes of changes in environmental parameters interpolated into differentiable spline functions. The conducted research was the basis for the development of the “wave theory of catastrophes” [1], which relies on the relevant sub-disciplines in geohysics, space physics, sociology, medicine. The research efforts within the framework of this theory have identified the presence and important role of inertial physical waves and fields in geophysical, cosmic and biological processes and triggering of catastrophes. These waves have the properties of solitary waves and vortex solitons. Their passage alters the local geophysical gravimetric and electrical characteristics. A special case of such waves is slow seismic waves propagating at velocities of 30-1,675 km/h. Understanding the properties and regularities of these waves and fields makes it possible to solve the problem of prevent mega-catastrophes. References 1. S.E. Bayda, Natural, technological and biosocial catastrophes: occurrence patterns, monitoring and forecast; EMERCOM of Russia. M.: FC VNII GOChS, 2013. 429 pp.

19  The Emergence of Maritime Piracy in the Modern Age. Trump J, Me   jtrump2011@gmail.com (138)

Abstract: Since the initiation of overseas trade, there has always stood the threat of piracy. Although story tellers and media sources may have made it a glorified profession, the piracy issue has become as prominent and deadly as ever, without garnering much notice. What has made it go relatively unnoticed, especially in the United States, is the romantic spin that has been put on the very nature of piracy. From collegiate and professional sports teams, to children-viewing approved motion pictures, the media and developing business interests have made piracy and overseas pirates a somewhat fanatical activity. With their fully automatic machine guns and rocket propelled grenade launchers, these insurgents have taken to the high seas and have plagued some of modern day’s busiest maritime pathways, including places like the Strait of Malacca and the seas of Southeast Asia, the Gulf of Aden, and the Horn of Africa. From coming aboard ships at sea or when docked, these acts have cost international traders, private parties, cruise liners, etc. cargo, money, and in a lot of unfortunate cases, lives. This so-called business venture has been extremely prominent since the Golden age of piracy when buccaneers, privateers, and corsairs owned the high seas. Although it is thought of a lot more lightly than it was in that time period, piracy, specifically in Southeast Asia, is an extremely dangerous activity. There are several factors that not only welcome, but sometimes encourage piracy. Factors such as developed nature of the country, the current governmental status and their enforcement (or lack thereof) of maritime piracy, or even the financial climate of the area that the insurgents are in can play a great role. This presentation will delve into discussing many of these factors and targeting where the most notorious spots for such events have occurred, are occurring, and will happen in the near and distant future.

20  Local knowledge and disaster preparedness: A case study on local-level and CBDRM in China. Liu B., Beijing Normal University   liubing@bnu.edu.cn (151)

Abstract: The importance of integrating local knowledge into DRR policy and practice has been increasingly emphasized since the 1970s. The present literatures mainly have succeeded in improving awareness for local knowledge as an effective tool for reducing risk from natural disasters. However, how to integrate such dispersed and unorganized local knowledge into DRR practice remains a major policy problem. In China, Community-based DRR has been emphasized in national five-year disaster prevention and reduction planning. During the implementation of this planning, local policy-makers and practitioners have begun to employ local knowledge consciously and systematically. This research attempts to investigate potential ways of such integration in China’s context. This research is based on a case study. The case is about practice of CBDRM in Aba prefecture, Sichuan of China. Aba has experienced the two major earthquakes: Wenchuan earthquake (May 12, 2008) and Lushan earthquake (April 20, 2013), which is uncommnly vulnerable to geophysical hazards like landslide, mud-rock flow etc. Meanwhile, aba is an area inhabited by ethnic minorities people, including Zang (Tibetan), Qiang, Hui etc. More than 200 towns and 1000 villages lie in mountains and valleys in Aba. Local knowledge and community engagement play an important role in disaster risk reduction in Aba. This article analyses government and community’s role in adopting local knowledge. Community-based disaster preparedness approaches are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people. Formalization of local knowledge and participatory approaches are major strategies for integrating local knowledge into CBDRM.

21  Risk factors for HIV transmission and Correlation of periodontal status with CD4 cell count of patients. katpattil ss, yenepoya university   drsabinsiddique@gmail.com (172)

Abstract: INTRODUCTION CD4 cell count has been established to be a standard laboratory marker for monitoring disease progression. Oral health is an important aspect in the promotion of general health and the impact of oral illness has bearing on general health. The purpose of this study was to find out risk factors for HIV transmission and if any correlation exists between the severity of periodontal disease and the CD4 cell count in HIV patients. METHODS: Fourty five male and five female HIV positive patients attending various treatment units in tertiary care hospital at Mangalore, India were examined according to a predesigned proforma and CD4 counts assessed after obtaining informed consent. They were categorized according to the CD4 cell count cutoff as Group I–Patients with CD4 Cell count < 200/ µl and Group II–Patients with CD4 Cell count ≥ 200/ µl. The Assessment of the periodontal status was using Community Periodontal Index (CPI). The data was analysed using chi - square test and pearsons correlation coefficient. RESULTS: 45 male and five female HIV positive patients were studied. 70% were in 20-40 years age group. 40% were related to transport services. The prevalence of periodontitis was significantly greater in patients of the group having CD4 < 200 (27.3%) than in the group having CD4 > 200 group (9.5%).A statistically significant correlation was found between CD4 cell count and periodontal status as shown by highest CPI score in the present study. CONCLUSION: Occupation was the important risk factor for HIV transmission and heterosexual contact is the most commonest mode of spread. The present study reaffirms the effect of CD4 count on periodontal diseases in HIV infected patients.

22  Knowledge and Attitude towards HIV Vaccine Trial Concepts among Youth of Mangalore City. sha a, mother hospital   reach2achu@gmail.com (173)

Abstract: Background: AIDS vaccine is seen as the ultimate prevention tool that will complement the existing prevention strategies in place. Patients participate in HIV vaccine trials with hope that developing a safe and effective AIDS vaccine is possible. To begin to understand adolescent attitudes to these complex issues, and inform our future work with adolescents in HIV vaccine trials, we undertook a formative study examining attitudes towards such trials, potential motivating factors and hypothetical willingness to participate, among youth. Methods: A self-administered, facilitated questionnaire was administered to 277 students in pre university colleges, Mangalore, India from August 2012 to February 2013. The questionnaire explored general HIV knowledge, perception of adolescent risk, knowledge of vaccine concepts, willingness to participate in future vaccine trials, perceived personal and social harms and benefits associated with participation as well as barriers and facilitators to participating in future HIV vaccine trials. Results: 277 college-going youth provided consent to participate, and if under 18, we also obtained written consent from a parent. Of the 241 participants who responded to the question on HIV testing, 10% indicated that they have tested for HIV. Of The majority (57%) of participants believed that parents should give permission for their child's HIV test while most of the participants (84%) believed that parents should know the HIV status of their child. Conclusions: The youth report high degrees of willingness to participate in HIV vaccine trials. This may be related to the high levels of adolescent HIV risk perception. The spectre of HIV infection looms regardless of age group, and adolescents are no exception. Indeed, public health practice would seem to say that effective vaccination of this subgroup above all would result in the greatest reduction in new infections.

23  Socio-economic impact on oral health-related quality of life of Parkinson’s disease patients. sha a, mother hospital   reach2achu@gmail.com (176)

Abstract: Background The severity of physical and mental impairments and oral problems, as well as socioeconomic factors, may have an impact on quality of life of Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. The aim of this research was to assess the impact of impairments and oral health conditions, adjusted by socioeconomic factors, on the Oral Health-Related Quality of Life (OHRQoL) of Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. Methods Sixty Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients, between 55-74 years of age were selected. Their caregivers answered a OHRQoL instrument (5 domains) which combines the Parental-Caregivers Perception Questionnaire (P-CPQ) and Family Impact Scale (FIS). Written informed consent to participate in this study was obtained from all the participants. The severity of dental caries, communication ability, gross motor function, seizures and socioeconomic conditions were assessed. Results Considering the total score of the OHRQoL instrument, only the reduction of communication ability and dental caries severity had a negative impact on the OHRQoL (p < 0.05). Considering each domain of the instrument, the severity of the Parkinson’s disease (PD) and its reduction of communication ability showed a negative impact on oral symptoms and functional limitations domains (p<0.05). The multivariate fitted model showed that the severity of dental caries, communication ability and low family income were negatively associated with the impact on OHRQoL (p<0.001). Conclusions The severity of dental caries, communication ability, and family income are conditions strongly associated with a negative impact on OHRQoL of Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. All these conditions should be assessed before medical and/or dental treatment of the patients to prepare an appropriate treatment protocol and optimize oral health. Clinicians should routinely check patients’ oral health in order to maintain high quality of life of Parkinson’s disease patients. We suggest short and frequent dental visits for having high range attention of the Parkinson’s disease patients.

24  Probabilistic risk assessment to human health in an area contaminated by organochlorine compounds. Toledo M. C, student of master degree, School of Public Health - University of São Paulo; Nardocci A. C., School of Public Health - University of São Paulo   michele.toledo@usp.br (190)

Abstract: Contaminated areas by hazardous chemical agents represent risks to human health and the environment, and also impose restrictions on the use of land and water bodies. In São Paulo, in 2013, there were 4,771 contaminated areas, of which 52% are located in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, that has about 20 million inhabitants. One of these areas is Vila Carioca, located in São Paulo city. Its contamination started in 1940 due to the activity of an organochlorine pesticide company. The soil and groundwater in the region have high concentrations of organochlorine compounds, resulting in the exposure of the surrounding population. Risks studies already have been conducted, however, there is still much uncertainty and controversy about the health risks of the population. This study uses the probabilistic risk assessment to the health of the exposed population at Vila Carioca. Contaminant concentration values in soil and water, obtained in the period from 1997 to 2012, were used. Were found 335 chemicals, of which the most important from the standpoint of exposure and toxicity were selected. For the probabilistic assessment were used the Monte Carlo simulation method, by means of commercial software Crystal Ball (Oracle Corporation). The methods recommended by the United States Environmental Agency were used, including its recent recommendations for the risk assessment of dermic exposure and increment of cancer risk for mutagenic substances.

25  Development of Environmental Resilience Assessment Method for Applying to Urban Water Metabolism in Japan. Toyohiko Nakakubo, Osaka University; Yuto Tada, Osaka University; Akihiro Tokai, Osaka University; Haruko Yamaguchi, Osaka University   nakakubo@see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp (217)

Abstract: In Yodo river basin, urban areas are located in upstream and then used water is released in upper site of water source of Osaka prefecture. Based on the characteristics of basin, risk assessment intended for unusual chemicals release were conducted by MLIT (2007) and Osaka prefecture (2013). In our study, three parts of analysis was done. i) Investigation of rates of chemicals release caused by earthquake In Natech research field, characteristics of chemicals release were analyzed. In our study, chemicals release rates caused by earthquake [%-facilities per intensity] were arranged by using data collected in the case of the east japan great earthquake by MHLW (2011) and FDMA (2011). The values were arranged as 2.0 %-facilities per intensity of > 6-strong in registered facilities, and 20.0 in non-registered facilities. ii) Development of assessment method and scenario analysis We developed the model for evaluating effects to water supply function by chemicals release from facilities caused by earthquake in Yodo river basin by rebuilding AIST-SHANEL ver2.5 for estimating daily change of chemical concentration. We set release scenario intended for petroleum hydrocarbons (toluene, xylene, and benzene) and soluble inorganic matters (fluorine and boron). The evaluated results shows that a) in petroleum hydrocarbons release cases, release from registered facilities with more than 5 ton of stock could cause exceedance or one order lower concentration of water quality standard for drinking water; b) in fluorine and boron release cases, release from non-registered facilities could cause exceedance. iii) Analysis of measures’ effectiveness Through literature review, the quantitative assessment methods of resilience were classified with ‘Pressure-response assessment’ and ‘Comprehensive assessment’ (Nakakubo et al., 2014). We applied Pressure-response assessment to urban water metabolism and then conducted what if analysis by selecting each measure with resilience characteristics: prevention; adaptation; transformation.

26  COMPARISON OF SERUM AND URINARY FLUORIDE LEVELS AMONG PANIYA TRIBAL WORKERS IN WAYANAD, INDIA. Palliyal Shanavas, Assistant professor; Arshad Mohammed, Assistant Professor   shanupalliyal@gmail.com (252)

Abstract: Serum and urinary fluoride (F) concentrations are reported for 44 workers from the fertilizer industry and 45 workers from the wood industry in Wayanad, India. Convenience sampling was employed to determine the F concentration in serum and urine using the ion selective electrode method. Workers employed in the fertilizer industry had higher serum F (0.071±0.028 ppm) and urinary F (3.45±1.65 ppm) than workers employed in the wood industry (0.037±0.009 ppm and 0.94±0.36 ppm). As expected, the serum and urinary F levels among exposed workers showed a strong correlation (r = +0.82). These findings indicate that phosphate fertilizer workers in India are at high risk of exposure to excessive amounts of F. Implementation of effective protective and regulatory measures confirming the Occupational Safety and Health Hazards (OSHA) standards or the Environmental Health & Safety (EHS) guidelines are recommended for phosphate fertilizer plants of India.

27  Predicting the risk of ecosystem collapse with Ecosystem Viability Analysis. Bland L M, The University of Melbourne   l.bland@unimelb.edu.au (107)

Abstract: Biodiversity is being lost at an increasing rate worldwide, yet few indicators assess the risks posed to different levels of biodiversity. Whilst the risks to species (extinction) are well-known, until now no globally accepted method assessed risks at the ecosystem level. The Red List of Ecosystems by the International Union for Conservation of Nature is a new global standard to assess the risk of collapse of all ecosystems by 2025. The probability of ecosystem collapse within the next 100 years is computed with a novel approach termed ‘Ecosystem Viability Analysis’. Future scenarios of land use change, climate change and human resource use are simulated with mechanistic models of ecosystem functioning. We investigate the use of five modelling methods: state-and-transition models, mass-balance models, bifurcation plots, network theory and individual-based models. We outline their strengths and weaknesses in predicting the collapse of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. We also analyse the sensitivity of methods to different definitions of ecosystem collapse. Underpinned by ecological theory, the Red List of Ecosystems constitutes a significant advance in risk prediction for complex systems. The Red List of Ecosystems will monitor progress towards international biodiversity targets, and promote conservation and natural resource management from global to local scales. The Red List of Ecosystems will complement other indicators of biodiversity change developed by the Union for Conservation of Nature, and will contribute to the most comprehensive picture of global biodiversity to date.

28  Pollution and Labor Supply in a Contest Environment: Evidence from Outdoor Tennis Tournaments in Beijing. Li T, National University of Singapore; Liu H, National University of Singapore; Lu J, National University of Singapore; Salvo A, National University of Singapore   ecsliuhm@nus.edu.sg (101)

Abstract: Recently, PM2.5 pollution has come under heavy media scrutiny in China. How PM2.5, affects worker productivity, including the effort and performance of athletes, is of great interest to academic researchers and policy makers. We examine the productivity of male and female tennis players in China Open, held outdoors in Beijing every October, a time of year that experiences large variability in air pollution, with PM2.5 ranging between 1 and 562 µg/m3. Tennis players are most at risk when pollution levels are high because they breathe harder and inhale more particulate matter. Stated “world No. 2” Novak Djokovic back in Oct. 2010 regarding environmental conditions during the China Open: “The bad air obviously does irritate you a little bit, especially if you’re playing against somebody that you expect to play long rallies with. We had so many long rallies and it’s hard to recover when you don’t have fresh air”. In contrast, a WTA spokeswoman said that “players have not indicated to date any adverse conditions that have had an impact on play”. We take these opposing statements as further motivation for our analysis. Our preliminary analysis shows that air pollution reduces the higher ranked player's probability of winning the first set. Moreover, a player who loses a first set to a similarly ranked opponent is less likely to reverse her bad start and win the second set when PM2.5 concentrations are high. We develop a three-stage sequential contest model. The probability of winning each stage is based on the odds ratio of players’ effort choices during the match. The structural model solves for the unobserved player effort, and the resulting winning probabilities, as a function of the observed history of the match, player abilities and a common per-stage discount factor. We estimate the structural model via maximum likelihood. The estimated structural model enables us to make past or future predictions of winning probabilities as air quality varies.

29  Efficient food standards for radioactive ceasium based on cost-benefit analysis of the regulation. Oka T, Fukui Pref Univ   oka@fpu.ac.jp (298)

Abstract: After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011, the Japanese government determined provisional regulation values for radioactive substances and began to regulate the distribution of contaminated agricultural products. Since April 2012 stricter food standard (100Bq/kg for the sum of Cs-134 and Cs-137 in food in general) has been applied. In this study costs of the regulation are estimated in terms of cost per life-year saved (CPLYS) and set against the benefits. On the basis of those results, efficient values for food standard are proposed in the sense that the cost does not exceed the benefit. The values for CPLYS in the case of prohibition of distribution of vegetables and rice are 8.0 million to 51 million yen, and 310 million to 1.0 billion yen respectively. That for the stop of production of dried persimmon is 290 million yen. That for the countermeasures carried out in rice production (fertilization with potassium and zeolite and deep cultivation) is 300 million yen at the minimum. That for the countermeasures in the production of persimmon (bark washing) is 42 million yen. Most of the values for CPLYS is larger than the value of a life-year, 20 million yen. The efficient values for food standard are estimated to be 1000 Bq/kg for vegetables, 720 Bq/kg for rice, and 3600 Bq/kg for dried persimmon in the case of regulation of distribution after production. The existing countermeasures will be efficient if the reduction in caesium concentration of rice is greater than 620 Bq/kg, and if the reduction in caesium concentration in dried persimmon is greater than 630 Bq/kg. That means efficient food standard must be above 620 Bq/kg for rice and above 630 Bq/kg for dried persimmon. The value for rice implies that efficient standard is not likely to be lowered by taking the countermeasures into account, but the value for dried persimmon reveals the possibility that efficient standard may be significantly reduced by taking the countermeasure into account.

30  Landslides in Teziutlán, Mexico: perceptions, vulnerability and strategies for risk communication. Landeros K., Institute of Geography, National University of Mexico   karinapsicologia@gmail.com (86)

Abstract: Teziutlán is situated in the North Range Mountain of Puebla on a land of rivers, waterfalls, streams and springs. Due to the geological and geomorphological setting composed mainly by hillslopes of pyroclastic flows underlaid by sedimentary rocks, landslides are considered as the main natural hazards of the area. Previous experience has shown that combined with hazards, vulnerability of the people plays a significant role in the construction of risk. In October 1999 the occurrence of torrential rains affected 30% of the population of the state of Puebla and caused hundreds of landslides. More than 50 houses were swept away, leaving 500 inhabitants homeless and 109 people were killed. As such, very frequently, initiatives from technical and economic approaches have been used to attend the emergency situations, however, there is a lack of disaster management, and attention to the people has been neglected in terms of their living conditions and perceptions. The aim of this work was to explore the perception of risk, vulnerability, preventive behavior, responsibility and response from the authorities, and risk communication. Findings show that there is high perception of risk and vulnerability from landslide, however there is significant differences among groups. People with no previous experience evaluate best the role of authorities. Concerning communication, people have received information about prevention and emergency actions, academicians and scientist are the most reliable source of information. It has been found out in this research evidence regarding the significant role of socioeconomic factors for vulnerability of households. Because this community lives under conditions of risk derived from unstable slopes, there is an urgent need for the development of disaster risk management strategies that take into account the perception of its residents in order to improve the efficacy, efficiency and acceptance of such programs.

31  A Generic Child Injury Data Framework for Kids Product Designers. ZHANG Kun, International Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science,Digital Human Research Center, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Nishida Yoshifumi, Digital Human Research Center, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Mikami Yoshiki, Department of Nuclear System Safety, Nagaoka University of Technology   kunzhang7711@hotmail.com (289)

Abstract: Injuries to children are a significant societal problem. It is a time for society to prevent child injuries by adopting evidence-based approach. This work is to propose a generic data framework of child injuries with the aim of reducing the child injuries. Conventional injury databases have limited scope of information mainly focusing on injury consequences and could not provide useful information for product designers who are seeking for information how injury occurred to children. In response to that, we are developing a data warehouse called Kids Design Database (KDDB), which is composed of four independent, focused databases: (1) Child Injury Database; (2) Child Body-Size Database; (3) Child Behavior Characteristic Database; and (4) Child Mode-of-Living Database (it contains how kids are attended by parents, how kids are helping housekeeping works, where kids are spending time in a daily life. The information is taken from web-based questionnaire and interviews). While these databases give us various information for designers, each database has different formats, sources and not necessarily be comparable nor integrated as its original form. In order to extract useful information systematically from these databases, we need a generic framework and standardized vocabulary sets. Our proposal is made of a comprehensive child injury description framework based on the World Health Organization’s epidemiological framework and various vocabulary sets introduced by International Organization for Standardization and International Labour Organization. With these instruments, KDDB will be more fully analyzed to provide more specific information for product designers.

32  Assessing Social Risk from Geophysical Hazards in the Pacific Ring of Fire Countries. Bronfman N.C., Universidad Andres Bello; Cisternas P.C., Universidad Andres Bello   pamecisternaso@gmail.com (295)

Abstract: People living in countries located in the Pacific Ring of Fire (PRF) are highly exposed to geophysical hazards, due to high seismic and volcanic activity. Nevertheless, the number of people living in high vulnerability areas is increasing. Thus, understanding the impact of natural disasters becomes fundamental for the government and the public. The goal of the present study was to perform a geophysical hazard risk assessment for countries located in the PRF. F-N curves were used to undertake the social risk assessment. In order to be comparable, the geophysical event fatality-frequency distribution of each PRF country was normalized by the population of the country at the time of the geophysical event. We used data from the EM-DAT database jointly with the Population Statistics Database and World Population Prospects of the United Nations for the period 1900-2013. In this ongoing research, we examine and discuss the results in the context of acceptable risk criteria framework used in the European Union.

33  Assessment of risk control implementations to ensure sustainability of microbial risk management system. Teo W, Singapore General Hospital; Goh C, Singapore General Hospital   watson.teo@sgh.com.sg (293)

Abstract: A typical microbial risk management system controls risk by applying the hierarchy of controls. Elimination is almost impossible in any research, and thus irrelevant. In certain rare situations, substitution may be possible, such as cases where less hazardous variants of the agents could be used or genetic modifications could be applied to reduce pathogenicity or virulence. However the most commonly recommended risk controls no doubt come in the form of engineering control, administrative control or personal protective equipment. It is relatively easy to formulate risk controls to address microbial hazards as there are related literature and references aplenty. The challenge however, is not only in the implementation, but sustaining the system. Several factors can affect the sustainability of risk control implementations. Engineering control can be costly to install, but even costlier to maintain, repair and replace. Not only is poorly maintained equipment unable to provide the intended protection, it provides a false confidence of safety to the user, which may do more harm than good. Excessive administrative control may sometimes impede work, adding additional complicated steps or restrictions that researchers have to overcome in order to get the work done. While used ubiquitously for all microbial work, personal protective equipment can be very uncomfortable and unwieldy, and more often than not, workers will choose to compromise safety for comfort. When conducting risk assessment for a microbial experimental project, it is important to assess the feasibility and practicability of the risk control measures. These may be done through inferences from past incidents, feedbacks gathered from researchers, analysis of workplace survey findings and behavioural observations during site visits. Ensuring the sustainability of risk control implementations will undoubtedly improve the overall microbial risk management system.

34  Product Cohort Database and Its Application to Post-recall Management. Mikami Y, Department of Nuclear System Safety, Nagaoka University of Technology/RISTEX; Zhang K, International Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Digital Human Research Center, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology   mikami@kjs.nagaokaut.ac.jp (291)

Abstract: During last couple of decades, product safety authorities of major industrial countries are shifting their efforts from pre-marketing safety regulation to post-market compliance assessment. The process of post-market compliance assessment is composed of mainly two steps; (1) identification of harmful products by means of risk assessment and (2) impact assessment of harms to the public caused by the identified products. While the former step is technical process in nature, the latter step is rather an economic and social analysis process. And in the latter step, product cohort structure data plays an important role. The product cohort structure data is defined as vintage composition (or age-structure) of product in this context. Vintage structure of automobile, for example, is almost completely known by authorities because official registration procedure gives it. But in the case of other consumer products, vintage structure is not clear even for the producer who has made it because how long does product remains at the hand of users are not known, nor reported to anybody. Authors are working to develop such product cohort database for selected durable consumer products, such as television set, air-conditioner, refrigerator, personal computers, etc. by using various sources including government statistics, customer purchase records, etc. It gives an estimates of vintage composition of those products, and thus gives us clues for such questions; how many recalled products estimated to be remaining in the market; how many old spec (pre-regulation) products still remains, etc. Authors will present a methodologies for the estimation of vintage structure data and a few examples of impact assessment results.

35  INTERVIEWS WITH SURVIVORS OF FALLS FROM HEIGHTS. Krishnamurthy N., Safety Consultant, Singapore; Tan B.K., WSH Institute, Singapore; Tan S.H., WSH Institute, Singapore; Heng P., Manpower Planning and Policy Division, Ministry of Manpower, Singapore   profkrishna@yahoo.com (290)

Abstract: The Workplace Safety and Health Act was enacted in Singapore in 2006 and since then all companies have been required to implement a risk management system to address workplace safety and health (WSH) risks including falls from height. In 2013, falling from height (FFH) was one of the most frequently occurring workplace accidents resulting in 24% of all workplace fatalities and 16% of major injuries in all workplaces. Nineteen percent of FFH fatalities occurred in the construction sector. FFH incidents are preventable to a great extent, and to study the root causes of FFH incidents the Workplace Safety and Health Institute awarded a research grant to the first author in 2012. Literature search was conducted for possible risk factors in regard to FFH, based on which key considerations were identified. These were incorporated into a questionnaire and administered to survivors of FFH incidents by the latter three authors. In this paper, a brief review of the background, the scope and framework of the project will be presented. The format of the interview with the survivors and essential data collected will be described. Preliminary findings from analysis of initial batch of interviews will be discussed.

36  Economic development and risk perception transition. Bronfman N.C., Engineering Science Department, Andres Bello University, Chile; National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017; Cifuentes L.A., Industrial and Systems Engineering Department. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Jimenez R.B., Engineering Science Department, Andres Bello University, Chile; Zacharias C., Industrial and Systems Engineering Department. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile   rjimenez@unab.cl (296)

Abstract: Socioeconomic development brings substantial improvements to communities, as economic growth, institutional strengthening and technology development allows to meet societies’ basic needs and to improve their quality of living. In this process, societies go through deep transformations, including changes in the type of risks that affects them and changes in their relative importance to society. In this study, we evaluate the potential changes in risk and acceptability judgments that have taken place in Chile over the last decade, in light of the rapid process of economic development that this country has experienced. Results from a previous study characterizing public concerns and perceptions for different hazards in Chile developed by Bronfman and Cifuentes in 2003 were used as a base line. Using a comparable survey, perceptions of risk and acceptability for 31 hazards were assessed and then compared with the 2003 results. The survey was administered to 1,273 participants from Santiago in June 2013. In general, our results reveal a significant decrease in acceptability for almost all hazards, and a significant increase in perceived risk for the set of hazards considered. More specifically, natural hazards, climate change, air pollution, food coloring substances, terrorism and nuclear weapons presented the largest decrease in public acceptability. Our results reveal that while traditional risks are managed, modern risks with global and regional impact, greater uncertainty and larger latency of effects, emerge and gain priority among public concern. This trend suggests a transition in risk perception in societies moving forward in socioeconomic development. Further implications for public policies are discussed.

37  Seasonal, Spatial and Temporal Variations in Lead Contamination of Surface Soil Samples of Raipur, India. Kamavisdar Anand, Department of Science & Technology, Technology Bhavan, New Mehrauli Road, New Delhi 110016   a.kamavisdar@nic.in (302)

Abstract: Large quantities of lead are being emitted in the environment by the anthropogenic sources. Now a day’s, lead poisoning is considered as the single most significant preventable disease, that may be associated with the environmental and occupational toxin. Lead pollution has also been accepted as a major environmental concern in the developing world atmosphere because of its continuous emissions from the metallurgical operations and the waste incineration that may also be responsible for increasing the ambient levels of lead in the environment. In the present work lead contamination in the surface soil samples of Raipur city, Chhattisgarh state, Central India has been investigated. The lead concentration in the surface soil samples of the study area (spatial variation- residential, commercial and industrial spots) was found in the range 7.0 -91.3 mg/kg. Further studies on the concentration of metal for the seasonal and temporal variations reveled that the contamination was found in the range of 70.0 – 85.4 and 84.0 – 91.3 mg/kg, respectively. The soil profile studies for concentration of lead was carried out and the results shown that the concentration of lead decreases downward and found to be almost constant after 60 cm. The lead pollution in surface soil samples of the study area is expected to be contributed mainly by sources i.e. coal and metalliferrous mining operations, coal burning and melting of iron ore etc. in the atmosphere. The enrichment factor of lead in the urban surface soil samples is found to be very high depending upon the nature of sources. The sources and deposition of lead are discussed. From these limited data, it may be stated that the lead contamination in the surface soil of the study area was not found to be at an alarming level, as its production in mines in India is almost in medium range as compared to the other Asian countries. But if its consumption is increased with the present rate it may indicate noticeable results affecting the environment of the study area.

38  Fate of ESBL- E. coli from human and animal sources in surface water and human exposure by swimming. Blaak Hetty, 1National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Schijven Jack, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht, the Netherlands; Schets Ciska, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; De Roda Husman Ana Maria, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands,Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht, the Netherlands   jack.schijven@rivm.nl (315)

Abstract: Background Extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria are omnipresent in the aquatic environment. Objectives To determine the fate of ESBL-producing E. coli (ESBL-EC) from faecal sources in surface water and the probability of human exposure by swimming. Methods Concentrations of ESBL-EC emitted from poultry farms and municipal wastewater treatment plants (mWWTPs) were determined, and their potential to reach recreational waters was modelled. The risk of human exposure to ESBL-EC in recreational waters was assessed using QMRA, based on both modelled ESBL-EC concentrations and measured concentrations in recreational waters under the influence of mWWTPs . Results The concentrations of ESBL-EC in the faecal sources and the assumed extent of dilution in surface water mostly determined their concentrations after a given travel-time. Given the relatively high levels of ESBL-EC in mWWTP effluents and in ditches adjacent to broiler farms during/ shortly after cleaning, it is likely that both humans and animals contribute to the ESBL-EC load in surface waters. The mean (95%) probability of exposure per person per swimming event in recreational waters was estimated to be 0.13- 0.20 (0.72-0.95). Similar exposure levels would also be obtained by hundred times diluted discharged mWWTP effluents or thousand times diluted surface water surrounding broiler farms at/ shortly after cleaning. It was also found that the logarithm of the concentration of ESBL-EC depended linearly on the logarithm of the concentration of EC (slope 0.87). Although the fraction ESBL EC/EC was found to be source-specific, because of variability and uncertainty, it is not possible to identify the source of ESBL-EC from a single observation. Conclusions Exposure to ESBL-EC in recreational waters, if downstream of farms and municipal wastewater discharge points is plausible. Further research is warranted into public health effects such as colonization or infection in exposed individuals, and dose response as a result of exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria.

39  Patterns of risk perception concerning natural hazards and influence on behaviour in crisis situations. Wellmann A, SRA member   anke.wellmann@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de (317)

Abstract: Interacting with extreme natural events is still a subject in need of exploration as is the influence of risk communication on behaviour of persons involved. Even though this study is still in its very early stages, a conceptual framework of the planned process might be of interest to everyone concerned with risk perception factors, experimental methodology, international risk behaviour and ultimately risk communication. Structuring the topic into two complementing parts, the prime section shall consist of quantitative data analysis using a risk perception survey published by the Gallup Organisation Europe on behalf of Swiss Re in 2013. Based on the results a number of geographically similar areas shall be identified in which to conduct further empirically founded experiments on the influence of risk communication strategies on behaviour in crisis situations. Therefore in each region subjects will be divided into groups and exposed to a stress indicator composed of video and audio material of a selected natural hazard. Strategies of risk communication is added as an independent variable. Results are expected to reveal a preferred method of communication as well as further information about interrelations between lay people and experts. Ultimately the study shall develop a best practice of risk communication and thereby resulting in increased resilience and reduced vulnerability concerning hydrometeorological hazards. The study aims at addressing a variety of concepts within models of behaviourism and microsociology. Including the concept of the psychometric paradigm referring to an individual’s multidimensional subjective perception and connecting it to rational choice theory is expected to explain striving for self-referred advantages in decision making. Therefore it is proposed that risk communicators inherit a certain degree of trust in order to positively influence people’s decisions concerning natural hazards.

40  Establishment of system for risk assessment and management of the consumer products in Korea. Lee Seungjoon, Ministry of Environment, Korea; Lee Jiyoung, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Lee Soonjoo, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Kim Jinyong, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Lee Boyoung, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute   lby@keiti.re.kr (311)

Abstract: As of January 1, 2015, the Act on the Registration and Evaluation, etc. of Chemical Substances requires health risk assessments for South Korean consumer products that contain chemical substances. These products include cleaners, air fresheners, deodorizing agents, adhesives, and coating agents. This law extends target management to potentially hazardous household products, and established a legal basis for linking risk management of chemicals and product safety management Therefore, this study aimed to identify chemical products and components that confer a high risk of exposure in daily life, thus facilitating the development of safety standards to prevent exposure. In addition, we aimed to establish a safety management system for the entire manufacturing process, including before and after the products’ release. We evaluated 12 common household chemical products and 3 biocidal products in this study. The safety standards for each product were established via health risk assessment of their potentially hazardous chemical components. These integrated risk assessments considered the routes of exposure, such as inhalation or direct dermal contact, according to the products’ properties (e.g., liquid, solid, or aerosol). Also, we used exposure coefficients that were representative of Korean consumers. To establish suitable safety standards, we analyzed the positive and negative regulation methods that are applied in advanced foreign countries. Based on our findings, we selectively applied these methods to individual products, according to their product characteristics. In particular, the positive regulation method was applied to biocidal product components to achieve stricter regulation. In addition, we established a safety management system for the products’ manufacturing processes, with a focus on health risk assessment before the release of new products. This system included both pre- and post-marketing management. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by KMOE(20140530451-00) *Corresponding author: Boyoung Lee(lby@keiti.re.kr)

41  Health risk assessment for the automotive spray on consumer products in Korea. Lee Jiyoung, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Lee Eunhwan, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Kim Jiinyong, Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute; Lee Seungjun, The Institute for Environmental Research, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; Yang Jiyeon , The Institute for Environmental Research, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea   lby@keiti.re.kr (312)

Abstract: In South Korea, numerous household chemical products have recently been distributed in the market without regulation regarding their use of carcinogens or heavy metals, and this lack of regulation has become a major social issue. In particular, diethyl phthalate (an endocrine-disrupting chemical) and methanol (which can induce vision problems when exposed to eyes) have been detected in automotive spray fresheners. However, the risk assessment and management systems for these spray products remain insufficient. Therefore, we conducted a health risk assessment of consumers who were exposed to automotive spray products in daily life. These products were classified according to their purpose and application as painting, waterproofing or water repellant, polishing, and slip preventing. Approximately 10 available databases were used to obtain toxicity information for the target substances. Using these categories and the toxicity data, we evaluated all of the possible routes of exposure for 58 chemical compounds, and calculated exposure coefficients that were representative of Korean consumers. The main routes of exposure to automotive spray aerosols were direct skin contact and inhalation of sprayed particles. Therefore, we estimated the lifetime average daily dose from the integrated exposure to calculate the related health risk level. As a result of this risk assessment, they were calculated that all chemicals in the investigated products showed low risk levels (HQ<1, MOE>1000). However, given that the products often contained combinations of various chemical substances, future studies are needed to assess the distribution of the components in all of the products. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by KMOE(20140530451-00). *Corresponding author : lby@keiti.re.kr

42  Enhancing Reliability Using Radiation Hardening: Approach, and Reliability Impacts. Aboutaleb Hycham, ENSTA Paristech; Monsuez Bruno, ENSTA Paristech   hycham.aboutaleb@gmail.com (351)

Abstract: With the growing importance of embedded systems in aerospace field, it is necessary to address the radiation effects to which they are especially sensitive. Particularly, the embedded aerospace systems must take into account the disruptive and sometimes destructive effects of heavy ions. Besides, the reuse of existing components implies that a modification of the architecture is sometimes expected to meet the safety requirements for such critical applications. Once an existing module for the mentioned application is selected, it is necessary to enhance its reliability. As a first step, a state of the art of existing mechanisms for logical radiation hardening is performed. These mechanisms are evaluated according a set of parameters: the type of errors they address, whether it is for purpose of detection or correction, the performance, the necessary additional physical volume, the computing time. To select the mechanisms to be used, a trade-off is performed. This trade-off depends also on the safety and reliability analysis performed beforehand as well as the components that are concerned and on which the mechanisms are to be applied. Once the most critical components are identified, logical radiation hardening is performed by selecting the optimal mechanism studied beforehand for each component. Trading-off at this level is necessary to meet the requirements while minimizing an expected increase in cost as well as in physical volume and in computing time. Seven types of components have been identified and the corresponding hardening mechanisms defined. Once selected, the hardening mechanisms are integrated in the architecture and a new reliability analysis is performed to measure the impact of the “robustification” and verify that reliability has been indeed enhanced. A comparison between the unprotected module and the protected module is performed. The results obtained show that the optimized selection of hardening mechanisms yields to an improvement in reliability.

43  Risk of Hand Foot Mouth Disease In Relation To Health Safety Practices of Child Care Centres,Malacca. Mohd Said Nursuriana, Malacca Municipality; Karuppannan Subramaniam, Department of Environment Health and Safety, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiTM Puncak Alam; Ali Anila, Department of Environment Health and Safety, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiTM Puncak Alam   anila928@yahoo.com (357)

Abstract: This study involved the investigation of the prevalence of Hand Foot Mouth Diseases (HFMD), its relative preventive measures, awareness and knowledge regarding the hygiene practices at Child Care Centre’s at Melaka Tengah District. The prevalence rate was calculated and analyzed from the cases reported in Melaka State from May 2001 till 2014 and survey was conducted among 50 parents, 30 child care workers and 10 child care center inspection. The results showed that the prevalence increased, where trend analysis of HFMD of reported cases increased. The highest reported cases were in 2012 with 773 cases, but in 2013 there was decreasing trend with 341 cases and further reduction in 2014 with 308 cases. Among 10 inspected child care centres, five had good preventive measures (50%), whereas among 50 parents, 19 parents (38%) had experienced HFMD outbreaks while 31 parents (62%) had no previous experience of HFMD cases. Out of the 30 child care workers, 17 experienced HFMD cases (56.7%) while 14 (46.7%) had no HFMD case experience. There were 14 child care workers 46.7%) with good basic knowledge regarding HFMD. Poor hygiene practice was practiced by one child care worker (3.3%) who also had experienced HFMD while another 16 (53.3%) practiced good hygiene conditions. HFMD needs attention in its prevention because of its no cure or vaccine which can be fatal especially among vulnerable populations like young children and has a risk of causing HFMD outbreaks.

44  Risk Assessment of Bakeries. ERCAN PINAR, Ege University; MERT BULUT, Ege University   pinarercan@yandex.com (334)

Abstract: Risk Assessment of Bakeries ERCAN PINAR, Food Engineer, Msc -Job Safety Specialist- Ph.D. candidate, Ege University; MERT BULUT, Aquaculture Engineer, Msc- Job Safety Specialist-Ph.D. Candidate Ege University pinarercan@yandex.com The Baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Risk management is a process by which the management assesses the risks, determines the control measures, and takes appropriate actions to reduce such risks. It is a cornerstone to prevent deaths, injuries and ill health at work. The aim of this study is to identify the hazards, assess the risks, check the carrying out the risk assessment and safety regulations in the bakeries in Izmır Turkey.

45  The relevance of teaching Simulations and High Performance Computing in Schools. Hilpert Jörg, Stuttgart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS); Berlich Rüdiger, Gemfony scientific UG (haftungsbeschränkt); Lürßen Peter, Bismarck-Gymnasium Karlsruhe; Zwölfer Almut, Schelztor Gymnasium Esslingen; Barwind Jochen, Schelztor Gymnasium Esslingen   joerg.hilpert@zirius.uni-stuttgart.de (330)

Abstract: Simulations provide us on the one side with tremendous opportunities. Some simulations even represent the only tool we have to make at least a rough estimate of what is to come. So they help us to understand, develop and improve theories, physical designs or processes in ways that are inaccessible to us without them. On the other side they also may involve significant risks e.g. “Which parts of reality should I include in my model?”; “As the author of a simulation, do I know (and accept) where my knowledge is limited?” and affect many parts of daily life and even the future of mankind. But there is a striking gap between the importance of these technologies and their public recognition. Useful predictions often make their way into the media, but a deeper discussion of both the opportunities and risks is done rarely, if it takes place at all. This should not come as a surprise, as the topic of simulations is wide and deep: There is an almost infinite variety of simulations, and many simulations are complex and not easy to understand even to the expert. Therefore it is the goal of the project “Simulated Worlds” (www.simulierte-welten.de) to alleviate this situation and to communication the opportunities and risks of the use of simulations to students so that they can perceive them correctly. Different science (HLRS, SCC, ZIRIUS) and education institutions (two secondary schools in Baden-Württemberg) joined efforts and started a science outreach project that works as a bridge to connect the world of the scientists with the world of young scholars. This particular focus on schools allows the project to concentrate efforts on a clientele that is likely to be affected most by simulations and their possible risks. To reach the described goals, the project team designed a three-tiered strategy with different concepts that have already been conducted successfully from 2011 till today.

46  Health Assessment of Fine Particles (PM2.5) and Statin Use on Stroke among Elder Hypertension Patients. Ho WC, China Medical University; Wu TT, China Medical University; Pan ZC, China Medical University; Chen PC, National Taiwan University; Sung FC, China Medical University   whocmu@gmail.com (350)

Abstract: Fine particles (PM2.5) exposure related to stroke is an important public health issue. Hypertension patients are the high risk group of developing stroke, especially for the sensitive group like the elders. Stain is widely used for hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular disease by their cholesterol-lowering effect. Studies show statin use related to improving the prognosis of stroke. Statin may also reduce the risk of stroke through its anti-inflammatory and neuro-protective effects. The objective of this study is to assess the health effect of PM2.5 and statin use on stroke incidence among elder hypertension patients. The study design is a retrospective cohort study. The medical records of subjects including stroke incidence and statin use are collected and analyzed by Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000). PM2.5 and related criteria air pollutant data including SO2, CO, O3, NO2 and PM10 have been collected by high-density Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration monitoring stations and used in estimating exposure by Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Cox proportion regression models are used to assess the effect of PM2.5, statin use and their interaction on stroke incidence among elder hypertension patients. The results show that PM2.5 increases the risk of developing stroke (before and after adjusting co-exposed air pollutant) and statin use reduces the risk. The interaction term of PM2.5 and statin use related to stroke is significant. However, statin use may modify but not confound the results of PM2.5 related to stoke incidence. PM2.5 related to higher stoke incidence consistently for both within statin use and nonuse sub-group analyses. Further studies are suggested.

47  Knowledge attitude and practice towards Infection control measures amongst healthcare workers. kaipattil A, PSM DENTAL COLLEGE   calicut24bds@gmail.com (348)

Abstract: Introduction: Healthcare workers must know the various measures for their own protection. They should improve organization of work, implement standard precautions and dispose biomedical waste properly to prevent occupational exposure. This study aimed at assessing the Knowledge and attitude towards Infection control measures amongst the healthcare workers in a medical teaching hospital of Calicut district ,kerala, India. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted by using a pretested semi-structured proforma, by interview cum observational technique. One hundred and twenty healthcare workers (70 hospital staff including nurses and technicians and 50 medical interns ) were selected using convenient sampling and their Knowledge, attitude and practice towards infection control measures were studied. Results: Of the 120 participants, the majority (85.8%) was aware of disposing used needles and syringes in puncture-resistant containers but only 55.7% were actually practicing it. Three-fourths (75.8%) of the participants were aware about not recapping the needles after use but on observation, only 35.4% were practicing this. All healthcare workers were aware about the indication for using masks and gloves while handling patients, while only 77.1% were using them. We also found that only 61.8% washed their hands after attending every patient, 94.3% cleaned the area with a sterile swab before giving injections and only 35.7% of the labs/ wards/ operation theatres had three colored bags. Few (11.7%) of the workers have already been exposed to infectious blood samples and some (19.2%) are still not immunized against Hepatitis B. Conclusion: There is a need for improvement in the Knowledge, attitude and practice of infection control measures among healthcare workers for both self and patient’s protection. They should also get themselves immunized against Hepatitis B and report accidental exposure to infectious samples to the infection control committee.

48  Patient and hospital risk considerations for hospital bathrooms and toilets door lockset design. Kam WK, Singapore General Hospital   kam.wai.kuen@sgh.com.sg (342)

Abstract: The purpose of the research was to develop an easy method to evaluate the patient bathroom / toilet door lockset design against design criteria that were unique to the hospital. From September to November 2014, 130 numbers of in-patient bathroom / toilet doors were surveyed in 27 wards. Within the same ward, where there were multiple doors of the same design, only one door of that design would be surveyed. The data collected were a)door handle type; b)presence of latch bolts; c)presence of lock bolts; d)action required to activate the lock from the inside; e)external locked door release mechanism; and f)‘In-use’ occupancy indicator. The door lockset design features collected were reviewed against the following criteria a) Universal design; b) Patient human factor; c) Healthcare worker requirement; and d) Ease of emergency rescue. It was found that there were 9 types of patient bathroom / toilet door lockset designs in the hospital. A matrix was designed to review the patient bathroom / toilet door design features against the 4 criteria. Only one lockset design fulfilled all 4 criteria of Universal design, Patient human factor, Healthcare worker requirement and Emergency Rescue. That lockset design was recommended for all future patient bathroom / toilet door projects. The study has achieved its objective in developing a matrix from the data that allowed a simple and quick method to identify the patient bathroom / toilet door lockset design that fulfilled the desired criteria.

49  Exploring the Multidimensionality of Local Residents’ Perceived Benefit around Nuclear Power Station. Kim Seoyong, Department of Public Administration, Ajou University   seoyongkim@ajou.ac.kr (371)

Abstract: The benefit is key policy instrument to enhance the social acceptance for nuclear power energy and station. In case of Korea, amount of 112.7 subsidy million dollar invested into local arena around nuclear power station. However, it is questionable that such lot of monetary support might be increase the acceptance of nuclear power station at the local level. The residents around nuclear power stations felt the risk more than those outside those nuclear facilities. Even if the perceived benefit possesses multiple and complex attributes, there are very few studies exploring the multidimensionality of perceived benefit. Our study will empirically examine the multiple dimensionalities of perceived benefit and its effect on the acceptance of nuclear energy. For this end, we divide the perceived benefit, felt by local residents around nuclear power station, into multiple dimension: (1) Perceived benefit at individual, local and national level accord to level of benefit unit, (2) Absolute perceived benefit versus relative one, (3) Benefit from positive views versus one from negative one. We assumed that such multiple contrasting dimensions have the different effect on the acceptance. Next, we compare the explanation power of such perceived benefits with other psychometric variables such perceived risk, trust, knowledge and stigma. Our study is based on the survey data (N=1,014) gathered from local resident around nuclear power station. We believed that our study will highlight the complex structure of perceived benefit and its impact on acceptance.

50  The Acceptance of Nuclear Power Station at the Local Level after Fukushima Nuclear Accident. Seoyong Kim, Ajou University   seoyongkim@ajou.ac.kr (358)

Abstract: After Fukushima nuclear accident, the acceptance for nuclear power have been decreasing. That also applies to the local context near the nuclear power station. Local residents around the nuclear power station are so much sensitive to the risk information. Our study will survey the risk perception and related variables which show the attitude and response from local residents by analyzing the survey data. This analysis shows the realistic story and situation about nuclear power at the local level.

51  Who Is Vulnerable to Societal Risk!: Analyzing Structural Determinant for Perceived Risk. Sunhee Kim, Seowon Unversity   shkim7675@hanmail.net (359)

Abstract: Today, people always feel a lot of risk. Such risk comes not only physical sides but also psychological ones. This means that the risk is not only matter of fact but also the social construction. Hence, it is very important to examine who feels more risk than other does. Based on survey data, our study will analyze, first, who feels more vulnerable to societal risk than other does. Second, our researches will show which factors influence such perceived vulnerability. Our study will show the result and cause of vulnerability.

52  The determinants of the life insurance demand of SME owners. Koyama K, Hoseiuniv graduate school of policy design   koichi.koyama@bont.co.jp (340)

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the demand of key person insurance of small and medium-sized business enterprises and to contribute to risk communication for appropriate risk management in SMEs The demand of key person insurance by SME owners is under the influence by the two factors. One is the financial needs for consistency. The other is the business owner`s personal values. As a result of the discussion, the following was confirmed. The financial needs of SME owners can be classified into three areas which are business interruption risk, retirement allowance and preventive issues. These financial needs make positive impacts on the demand of key person insurance. As for values, the impact of uncertainty avoidance and collectivism on the demand of key person insurance was confirmed. Uncertainly avoidance makes a negative impact on demand of policyholder. Collectivism makes a positive impact on demand other than the policyholder. The main implication of this study is the need for a segment communication strategy based on value system of small and medium-sized enterprises that have been affected by the personal values of the SME owners.

53  Knowledge and Attitude towards vaccine trial concepts and the functional status of HIV Patients . kp loolu, al iqra hospital   loolukp100@gmail.com (364)

Abstract: Background: AIDS vaccine is seen as the ultimate prevention tool that will complement the existing prevention strategies in place. Patients participate inHIV vaccine trials with hope that developing a safe and effective AIDS vaccine is possible. HIV infected individuals live with various functional disabilities which need lifelong continuous care. Also, the data about the functional status of AIDS patients are rare. On this background, the study was conductedto evaluate knowledge of vaccine trial concepts and attitude of HIV infected populations to participate in HIV vaccine trials and also assess their functional and disability status. Methods: A Cross-sectional study was done among 90 male and 20 female HIV positive patients attending atertiary care hospital, and two non-governmental organizations at Mangalore, India, from November 2012 to May 2013 after approval from the institutional ethical committee. A pretested structured questionnaire was used to measure the participants’ knowledge and attitudes about HIV vaccine trials and also their functional status and disability was graded according to WHO criteria after obtaining written informed consent. Results: Knowledge of concept of vaccine trial was low and misconceptions about the concepts were common. 69% of study population will be ready to be a part of a randomized vaccine trial. Only 52% were able to lead an economically productive life. The functional status of the patients positively correlated with WHO disease stage (P < 0.0001) and CD4 count. Conclusions: Volunteers will be possibly ready to enroll in HIV vaccine trials with hope that developing a safe and effective AIDS vaccine is possible and more than fifty per cent of the AIDS patients are disabled and need support and care. Functional status of patients would be helpful in making important policy decisions and health care interventions strengthening community-based palliative care for AIDS patients.

54  Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Regarding Biomedical Waste Management among Healthcare Personnel. kumar anoop, lecturer   anok10@gmail.com (353)

Abstract: Background: Biomedical waste (BMW) is waste generated during diagnosis, treatment or immunization of human beings or animals, or in research activities pertaining thereto, or in the production and testing of biologicals, and is contaminated with human fluids. Objective: To assess the Knowledge, Attitude and Practices (KAP) regarding healthcare waste management among healthcare personnel in a Tertiary medical and dental Hospital,Calicut, India. Material and methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted amongst medical, dental, paramedical staff and graduate and postgraduate students of Tertiary medical and dental Hospital,Calicut, India. A total of 28 healthcare personnel consented for interview. Simple random sampling technique was used to select the study unit. A predesigned and pretested questionnaire for KAP study was used for data collection. Data were collected, compiled and analyzed using SPSS 21.0 version for calculation of percentages. Results: In present study, 83.3% of medical and dental doctors and students had knowledge about waste management plan and its authorization. Majorities of the medical doctors (83.3%), paramedics (80%) and students (66.7%) had knowledge about place of waste disposal. On practice level, most of the healthcare personnel were using autoclave and lesser number of personnel were using dry heat sterilization. Conclusion: The healthcare personnel were observed to be good in theoretical knowledge as well as practices. The need of comprehensive training programs regarding BMW management is highly recommended to all hospital staff. Wherever, generated, a safe and reliable method for handling of BMW is essential.

55  Benzoic acid: risk and safety assessment for cosmetic products. Kim M.K., Sungkyunkwan University; Lim S.K., Sungkyunkwan University; Kim D.H., Sungkyunkwan University; Park C.K., Sungkyunkwan University; Lee Byung-Mu, Sungkyunkwan University   bmlee@skku.edu (328)

Abstract: Risk and safety assessment of benzoic acid (BA) used for consumer products has been performed. It is used as pH adjustor and preservative. BA has been regulated by government agencies at concentration 0.5% as preservatives. In rinse-off consumer products, a maximum concentration of 2.5% was allowed although 0.5%. is the concentration allowed in leave-on products. Oral rat experiments of BA suggest that the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) was estimated to be 500 mg/kg/day. There was no evidence for the mutagenicity and carcinogenicity of BA. Systemic exposure doses (SEDs) were estimated to be 0.225 mg/kg/day in rinse-off products, 1.211667 mg/kg/day in leave-on products and 1.436667 mg/kg/day in total preservative products, respectively. Finnaly, the margin of safety (MOS= NOAEL/SED) values are estimated to be 2222, 412 and 348, respectively. Overall, the current use of preservative BA in consumer products is considered safe and poses no human risk.

56  Evaluating the industrial emission and its location to provide an efficient risk reduction. Pei-Chiun Li, Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University; Hwong-wen Ma Ma, Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University   f95541203@ntu.edu.tw (337)

Abstract: Human health risk is mainly to find out and connect the relationships between emission sources and exposure. In order to estimate the effects of these emission and exposures, it is required to use a human health risk assessment procedure to estimate health impact associated with various emission sources. Moreover, the risk is not only related to the sources but also depended on the category of industries and their location. Therefore, the aim of this article is going to assess the health risk of receptors in the studied area, to identify the spatial distribution of risk, and to estimate the contribution of risk derived from each industries. In this study, the emission sources were sorted from Taiwan Emission Data System, the most comprehensive database maintained by the Taiwan EPA. Total of 336 sources, which divided into 16 industrial categories, contribute to over 74% of the lead emission in Taiwan. AERMOD, an atmosphere dispersion model, is used to simulate the concentration of lead (Pb) in Taiwan. Then geographic information system is used to calculate the cumulative concentration and to present the spatial distribution. The average daily intake were calculated the dose of chemicals that the receptors receive through inhalation, the ingestion of food, and drinking water. In addition, the transportation of agricultural products was considered to reveal the transfer of risk between counties. Results of this research showed that high emission areas are not identical to high risk areas. The risks are not only resulted from local emission, but also derived from other regions by transporting food. Moreover, different industries located in different places cause various levels of risk. To conclude, this study may be of importance in finding out the uncorrelation between emissions and risks, and in evaluating the risks derived from different industries and regions. Risk reduction could be implemented by controlling the certain industrial emission in certain place.

57  Projecting future heat-related mortality under global climate change. Li Ying, East Tennessee State University; Kusi Joseph, East Tennessee State University   liy005@etsu.edu (352)

Abstract: Global climate change is anticipated to raise the overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Predicting future health consequences of higher temperatures at the regional, national and global level based on historical temperature-mortality relationships can be challenging due in part to the uncertainties in the location-specific temperature-mortality relationship, the heat threshold, and how populations will adapt or acclimatize. This study reviews published estimates of the warm season temperature-mortality relationships around the world and explores the heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the relationship and the threshold. We also investigate the potential effects of adaptation and acclimatization on the estimates of excess heat-related deaths based on empirical evidence, and propose a method that can be used in future projections to address the uncertainties. This study contributes to the literature of projecting the future public health burden of heat-related effects, which provides valuable information to climate policy decision making.

58  Assessing the Risk of Exposure to Organophosphate Pesticides Residues for Food Safety in Taiwan. Min-Pei Ling, Dept. of Health Risk Management, China Medical University, Taiwan; Keng-Wen Lien; Shih-Pei Ni; Hui-Ying Huang   lingmp@mail.cmu.edu.tw (354)

Abstract: This study analyzed post-cooking residues of 56 organophosphate pesticides (OPPs), and assessed their potential health risks for children, adolescents, and adults. It involved food sampling, preparation, analysis of pesticide residues, estimation of food consumption data, and assessment of food safety risks. After the food had been prepared, the samples were recombined into 200 composite samples and analyzed to detect OPP residues. The results showed that OPPs were primarily detected in fruit and vegetables. The estimated daily intake (EDI) of these OPPs in the Taiwanese population was found to be lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). The conclusion of this study is that doses of these 56 OPPs in the diets of the Taiwanese population are within an acceptable level of risk.

59  Characterizing Risk on Perfluorinated Compounds in Sembilang River, Malaysia. Md Som Nor Nazrieza, University Technology Mara; Hussain Hazilia, University Technology Mara; Karuppannan Subramaniam, University Technology Mara; Yatim Siti Rohana, University Technology Mara   deqie_ieza@yahoo.com (349)

Abstract: The environmental risks arising from the presence of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) which have hydrophobic and oleophilic characteristics which enables high stability and increased persistency in the environment due to increased industrialization. The populations impacted by PFCs have an increased risk due to exposures and poor disposal without proper monitoring. PFCs are readily transported through hydrological media and processes, thus making the aquatic life and drinking water at risk. The present study investigated presence of perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS), perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) in Sembilang river water (n=80). Solid phase extraction together with high performance liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadropole mass spectrometry (LCMS/MS) were used. The detected pollutants were PFBS=317.96 ng/mL, followed by PFHxA=287.36 ng/mL, PFBA=24.15 ng/mL, PFOA 16.18 ng/mL and PFOS 0.63 ng/mL. Risk analysis was conducted on the five culprits’ compounds for potential cancer risks among humans and as PFCs are known carcinogens which can be considered as high risk to receptor population (risk>1) (USEPA, 2012). The PFCs concentration in Sembilang River was high possibly due to manufacturing processes and effluents from nearby landfill. Further studies are required on health impacts in Malaysia. Keywords: Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), solid phase extraction, LCMS/MS, Cancer Risks

60  Sub-cultures of Risk: who is the Expert? Carter David, University of Canberra   rodrigo_sdesouza@hotmail.com (345)

Abstract: This article aims to understand the implementation of risk management in a Brazilian Development Bank, considering it as a political process of interpellation. Therefore, using the Discourse Theory of Laclau and Mouffe, it problematizes the logics behind the idea of expertise, exposing how ‘experts’ were constructed in this discourse in opposition to ‘other groups’. Conceptually, the idea of expertise was constructed to reinforce the ‘knowledge’, therefore, power of ‘trained expert’ to set the right direction in different departments. However, examining the genealogy of this discourse, this paper clarifies that through logic of differences and logics of equivalence, this discourse initially overshadowed internal different under a discourse of ‘good for all’, that after all also create polarities and opposition under a discourse of ‘expertise’. During this fieldwork risk management’s practices were in crisis, and risk experts reinforced a ‘risk culture’ that blamed other managers to present a ‘weak risk culture’ in their department and do not understand properly risk management’s practices which reinforced their position as ‘non-experts’. Nonetheless, this discourse just creates more resistance and was unworthy to risk management practices inside the bank in a dispute for power through a debate about ‘who is the expert’? Therefore, this article critically analyse these events as a way to highlight implementation’s problems of risk management’s practices. This paper exposes how the claim for expertise, creates a polatiry between ‘experts’ and ‘non-experts’, not including, but exluding actors in a suuppodsely participatory and collaborative process of Enterprsie Risk Management implementation, which generate more opposition against risk management experts, and consequently, risk management practices.

61  Spatio-temporal Risk Analysis Model for Pandemic Influenza with Person-Trip Survey Data. Yoshida Mamoru, Kumamoto University; Maruyama Takuya, Kumamoto University; Kakimoto Ryuji, Kumamoto University   yoshidam@kumamoto-u.ac.jp (347)

Abstract: Pandemic influenza is one of the risks that can cause extensive and irreversible impacts on our society. It is seriously difficult to predict an occurrence and damages of pandemic influenza like Spanish influenza in 1918, but this does not imply that we should draw up its measures and implement them after its occurrence. It is important to contemplate the measures and build consensus on them among stakeholders in advance. However, so far, due to a lack of intra-city simulation models to reproduce and visualize infection processes among populations in a city, the policy discussion is missing a point on quantitative effectiveness of the measures, such as school closures, workplace closures and public transport shutdowns. From such a background, our research aims to develop a simulation model to reproduce spatio-temporal process of pandemic influenza with using person-trip survey data. Person-trip survey data enables us to estimate spatio-temporal sparse or dense populations while keeping sequential moves-and-zones in zones in a city. Parameter calibration is conducted through the estimated reproduction number of Spanish Influenza. By taking through such a process of data and parameter arrangement, the model can handle issues of pandemic risk varied with time and space. In addition, this research proposes three risk indices: the number of infected persons, the risky zones (, where persons are likely to be infected) and the period of local spread. These three indices is used to evaluate the measures quantitatively. Through the case study of Kumamoto City, with a population of about seven hundred thousand, we show impacts of pandemic influenza in a city and how effective the measures are with respect to the three indices.

62  Indonesia ratified the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (AATHP): consequences and implications. Sambodo Maxensius, ISEAS and LIPI   smaxensius@yahoo.com (148)

Abstract: Land and forest fire and haze have become one of the biggest environmental challenges in the ASEAN and Indonesia has become a major source of transboundary haze in the region. By mid-September 2014, Indonesia agreed to ratify the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution (AATHP) after more than a decade delay. This paper aims to analyse what the consequences and implications at local, national and regional perspectives after Indonesia ratified the AATHP. This paper is organized into five sections. After the introduction, section two aims to revisit the cause of land and forest fire in Indonesia. Section three discusses the dynamic of neglecting from scepticism to cooperation. Section four analyses the institutional and organization formation at national and regional level in response to AATHP. Section five consists of conclusion and future agenda. We found that reducing the area of critical land and promoting reforestation are imperative to ease the number of hotspots. Second, Indonesia needs to be more proactive in strengthening the AATHP framework because it adopts the managerial model instead of coercive approach, and it allows any party to propose amendments to the agreement. Third, the literatures indicates that lack in political will to ratify the AATHP due to three main reasons: (i) managing natural resources is a lucrative activity; (ii) lack in law enforcement leads to rampant rent-seeking behaviour among the actors; and (iii) there is also a simplistic assumptions among epistemic scholars that by pursuing the climate change agenda, it can ease the haze. We argued that the victory of Joko Widodo and the fourteen agendas in forestry sector on his campaign have triggered the old parliament to grab the low hanging fruit. This achievement also can be claimed as one of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s legacies. The new government needs to reconstruct the new institutional and organizational setting in order to implement AATHP effectively.

63  A NOVEL LIGHTWEIGHT PROTECTIVE PAPR RESPIRATOR ENHANCES ASBESTOS WORKER COMFORT, COMPLIANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY. Birrell AM, PAFtec Australia; Virr A, PAFtec Australia; Fu X, PAFtec Australia; Snow John, PAFtec Australia; Johnson D, PAFtec Australia   Alex.birrell@paftec.com (363)

Abstract: Many workers find their traditional negative pressure respirators extremely uncomfortable, hot and overly confining when working for long periods in warmer environments or when doing highly mobile or high exertion tasks. During the recent Ebola epidemic in West African, these major issues highlighted the need for more comfortable PPE that enhance both safety and comfort. In an industry that has not seen innovation in 20 years, a novel lightweight PAPR has been designed and is a paradigm shift in respiratory protection with the potential for significantly changing the risk profile for workers. Leveraging Australia’s leading position in the medical respiratory device market, the CleanSpace™ PAPR incorporates patented technology in miniaturisation and breathing algorithms to deliver P3 certified protection in a respirator device without hoses, cables or waist mounted battery packs. This papers outlines the use of the CleanSpace PAPR with full face mask in Australian Asbestos workers working in hot temperatures (Range: 25°C – 33°C; Avg 27°C) wearing full decontamination disposable protective apparel over a six (6) hour shift. Tasks undertaken during the trial included walking, lifting, bending, operating machinery and a number of high exertion tasks. Independent quantitative fit tests (TSI portacount testing) were conducted prior to the trial. All respiratory equipment used for the trial has successfully passed and been certified under Australian/NZ Standards (AS/NZS1716) and European Standards (EN12942). The results demonstrated that a lightweight powered respirator improved comfort and resulted in higher compliance and productivity during the four (4) month trial. In conclusion, where workers are required to wear respirators and are exposed to high environmental temperatures and/or required to undertake high exertion work with protective suits (inhibiting heat exchange) the CleanSpace PAPR should be considered.

64  Office Risk Assessment. USLU SERKAN, Engineering Geologist, Job Safety Specialist, MSc Candidate at Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey; MERT BULUT, Aquaculture Engineer, MSc, Job Safety Specialist, Ph.D. Candidate at Ege University, Izmir, Turkey; ERCAN PINAR, Food Engineer, MSc, Job Safety Specialist, Ph.D. Candidate at Ege University, Izmir, Turkey   serkand62@gmail.com (362)

Abstract: The office environment presents an array of potential hazards that can be avoided by taking simple precautions. Office workers face occupational hazards that include eyestrain, overuse syndrome, headaches, trips and falls and manual handling injuries. The first step in preventing or controlling hazards at work is risk assessment. The aim of occupational health and safety risk management is to eliminate or reduce the risk of injuries and illness associated with work. Risk management involves: identifying the problem (hazard identification) / determining how serious the problem is (risk assessment) / deciding what needs to be done to solve the problem (risk elimination or control). The aim of this study is to identify the hazards, assess the risks, check the carrying out the risk assessment and safety regulations in offices in Izmir Turkey.

65  Better integration of the societal dimension in security industry activity by applying tools designed for assessing and monitoring social acceptance of new technologies. Auerkari P.    (84)

Abstract: Social acceptance of new technologies is crucial for the successful introduction of a technology to the market. If potential users of a technology relate risks to the use of the technology that they cannot or do not want to tolerate, they will simply reject it. But especially for application areas in which people see themselves exposed to a new technology without having the immediate option to accept or to reject it, this aspect needs to be taken into account very carefully. One of the industries that will be challenged by issues of social acceptance more and more in the coming years is the Security Industry. Security is considered as one of the most essential human needs and still is a highly sensitive area. A 2012 published communication of the European Commission states that “Security measures and technology can have an impact on fundamental rights and often provoke fear of a possible undermining of privacy”, which may lead to (1) potential waste of investment by the industry developing such technologies and (2) purchase of less controversial products which do not entirely fulfil the requirements set to ensure security (COM 2012 417). What is needed is a thorough assessment of social impacts including impacts on fundamental rights already in R&D planning and developments phase. More than for other technology sectors, for technologies applied in security the social impacts need to be tested and evaluated from the very beginning, which is captured by key phrases like “privacy by design” and “privacy by default during the design phase”. In this respect, this contribution will discuss the better integration of the societal dimension in security industry activity by applying tools in security research (EU FP7 Project EDEN) that were initially designed for improving the management of emerging risks from industrial safety perspective (EU FP7 Project iNTeg-Risk).

66  Expertocracy, Common Sense and Kaleidoscope – the “right” approach to governance of innovation and technology related risks? Paltrinieri N.    (76)

Abstract: Expertocracy, Common Sense and Kaleidoscope – the “right” approach to governance of innovation and technology related risks?

67  Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Using Bayesian Statistics-Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. Wu K.Y.    (213)

Abstract: US EPA already adopted probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for decision making. Previously, PRA was conducted by mainly using the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which frequently requires either empirical or probability distributions of parameters to simulate the distribution of lifetime daily dose. The simulation results will be valid if only the input parameters, data and assumptions are valid. In practice, risk assessors frequently suffered from insufficient data to fit distributions for some parameters, especially concentrations and intake rates, or even worse spotted data hinder completion of an assessment, such as a large proportion of residue data below detection limit. In order to reduce uncertainty due to insufficient data, the Bayesian statistics Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was applied to perform PRA. The limited data available were used as prior information. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was performed with the WinBUG to achieve the posterior distributions of parameters and health risk. Several examples will be presented in this meeting; such as assessment of lifetime cancer risk for ochratoxin A (OTA) in foods, assessment of lifetime cancer risk for aflatoxin B1 in food (only few data greater than regulations were available), assessment of lifetime cancer risk for acrylamide in high-temperature processed foods with high uncertainty in residue and intake rate data, and even the assessment of DDT and DDE cancer risk by fitting a multimedia model. With limited data available, the posterior distributions of parameters and health risk theoretically converge to corresponding representative distributions for the study population so that quality of risk assessment may be improved without additional investment of resources to collect data.

68  Nuclear Risk Governance in South Korea: Unprepared and Unreliable. Yun Sun-Jin    (70)

Abstract: The Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011 in Japan was a shocking event especially to its neighbor, South Korea. South Korea, currently ranking 5th in the world in terms of nuclear installation capacity and number of reactors, 4th in terms of nuclear electricity generation, and 1st in terms of nuclear reactor density, is in a critically risky condition. In particular, more than 5 million people live within 30km of nuclear power plants. Under these circumstances, how well prepared and reliable is South Korea’s risk governance? This study explores the risk governance system in South Korea, discovers problems and their sources, and suggests alternatives. What kinds of institutions have been arranged? How properly have they been operated? Who has participated in risk governance or who are allowed to? What kind of information has been produced and how has the information been circulated? This study explores critical events related to nuclear risk and investigates institutional responses. Even though the South Korean government established the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission in October 2011 in order to mitigate the anxiety resulting from the Fukushima nuclear disaster, emergency planning has not been sufficiently prepared and nuclear accident simulations have not been undertaken. Safety and Security related agencies are dominated by pro-nuclear groups based on opaque and closed decision-making processes. Bribery and corruption around the procurement of nuclear reactor parts are another significant source of nuclear risks in Korea. It concludes that the current nuclear risk governance in South Korea is inadequate, unprepared, and unreliable.

69  Quantitative Risk Analysis Framework of Ecological Systems for Climate Change Adaptation Plans. Lee Seungjun, Korea Environment Institute   leesj@kei.re.kr (373)

Abstract: At the moment, most of the established national adaptation plans have employed qualitative risk analysis frameworks to prioritize adaptation plans. Although qualitative risk analyses conducted by experts and relevant stakeholders can reflect various perspectives in prioritizing risks and adaptation plans, the results of the analyses alone may be biased depending on who evaluates the risks. In this regard, quantitative risk analyses will complement the qualitative ones by providing objectivity and consistency in the evaluation process. This study seeks to provide a standardized framework for analyzing risks of ecological systems. Based on the previous methodologies, this study suggests the following procedure to conduct a quantitative risk analysis of ecosystems: 1) selecting environmental and ecosystem variables, 2) deciding the thresholds of the environmental variables recognized as ‘hazardous,’ 3) formulating conceptual models of the system considering the environmental and ecosystem variables, 4) acquiring data of the environmental and ecosystem variables following model simulations, 5) Calculating hazard, vulnerability, and risk, 6) analyzing sensitivity of the risks according to the threshold values of the environmental variables, and 7) presenting the risks by hazard and vulnerability. Although the quantitative risk analysis framework was applicable to some of the national adaptation plans established by the qualitative risk analyses, many of the adaptation plans from the qualitative risk analyses were incompatible with the quantitative methodology. This implies that both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis frameworks should be considered in adaptation planning processes. *This study was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute with the R&D project on Development of Integrative Model for Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment.

70  Workplace Safety Practices: Proliferation and Controversy. Ball LN, King's College London   laurence.ball5@gmail.com (415)

Abstract: Risk assessment practices have existed in various forms for thousands of years. During the 20thC new techniques were devised in the UK, some of which spread globally. However, a problem has arisen in the UK during the last decade which has damaged risk assessment’s plausibility and standing with the wider public. The spread of health and safety practices into public life has received considerable public, media and political attention in recent years in the UK. Tales of killjoy risk assessors prohibiting activities in the name of safety have become enduringly popular. This may well have contributed to the apparent erosion in the credibility of risk assessment itself, which is now frequently the subject of controversy, criticism and even ridicule. This paper posits that the ill-repute which has befallen H&S and risk assessment in the UK is largely attributable to its application beyond the factory fence, as opposed to activities in conventional workplaces. This in turn points to an underlying conflict of philosophy. The tendency towards achieving risk minimisation in the workplace is arguably ill-suited to public life, in which a degree of risk is generally accepted in exchange for the benefits that public activities provide. The implications of this are discussed, in conjunction with the UK’s Health and Safety at Work Act and current UK risk assessment protocols.

71  A Comparative Analysis of Trade Secrets Protection using Non-competes. Kazuko Takizawa, Waseda University   kazuko.takizawa@aoni.waseda.jp (230)

Abstract: This paper discuss effects and limitations of non-compete agreements regarding prevention of trade secrests misappropriation by ex-employees. The reasonableness of non-compete agreements is judged mainly based on employer interests such as the importance of the information assets in question, mobility for former employees, and social impacts. The targets of such covenants should be limited to managirial employees who have access to fatal trade secrets, since valid non-competes require high costs of compensation and overreaching clauses are void. Still, non-competes, as supplements to non-disclosure agreements, play a certain role in protecting proprietary information mainly because it lower the burden of proof when a violation does occur. In order to improve enforceability, it is an essential that research case trends and make legally sustainable covenants. Realizing critical information assets, imposing appropriate post-employment restrictions on target employees, based on estimated misappropriation risks of the assets and cost-effectiveness, and revising them when necessary are also crucial. According to a comparatve analysis about lawsuits on non-compete covenants in Japan, US, and China in this paper, the result implies that the host country’s legal system must be considered regarding contracts among employees abroad.

73  The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Food Security. Beer T    (129)

Abstract: Safety and Security, though almost synonymous opposites of “risk”, can have different meanings. Food safety is only one of the nine attributes of food security. To meteorologists, food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important “To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other...” The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), through its Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change (CCEC) is leading the WeatCliFS consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatCliFS: What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards [such as famine] – and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales? This paper will review the historical link between weather, food supplies, and food distribution; examine the Asian and international situation; summarise the response of the scientific community and point out the direction for future research

74  Communicating risk information about Cyber-Security through Visualizations and emotional state. Cheng H, University of Strathclyde; Burns C, University of Strathclyde; Revie M, University of Strathclyde   h.cheng@strath.ac.uk (339)

Abstract: The affect heuristic (a cognitive process in which people use their positive and negative feelings to evaluate risk) has become an important focus for research in risk perception. Researchers have found that specific emotions like fear and anger have opposite effects on risk perception (Kahneman, 2011). While people who experience fear make more risk-averse choices, angry people make more risk-seeking choices (Lerner and Keltner, 2001). This poster investigates the effect of emotion (e.g. fear, anger) on choices people make about cyber-security. Specifically, we investigated how cyber-security information framed positively or negatively in text or graphic form are affected by emotional state. Our previous research has found that information framing and the type of visual presentation can affect people\'s choices. The current study extends this work by investigating the effects of induced emotions (fear and anger). It also explores effects of cognitive rationality (give ref to the CRT) and numeracy (give ref to Berlin test). The implications for theory and practice of risk communication are discussed. References: Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan. Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. (2001). Fear, anger, and risk. Journal of personality and social psychology, 81(1), 146.



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