World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Monday 20-07-2015

Monday Poster Platform - Health and Environmental Risks

Room: 3rd Floor Foyer   16:00–17:30

1    Methods to estimate the burden of occupational disease. Hutchings SJ, Imperial College London; Rushton L, Imperial College London (120)

Abstract: Objective There is growing interest worldwide in estimating and comparing disease burden. We have developed population attributable fraction (PAF) methods to estimate how much occupational disease now is attributable to exposures in the past, and lifetime risk methods to estimate how many people exposed now will develop disease in the future, and extended the methods to estimate cases avoidable through intervention. Methods The PAF is estimated by combining disease risk with the proportion of the population exposed using a job exposure matrix and/or national workforce data. For cancers, exposure over a relevant risk exposure period accounts for latency; PAFs are applied to total incident cancers. Prevalence is estimated for respiratory disease with a point estimate of exposed current and retired workers potentially incorporating a lag effect. PAFs have also been estimated for a series of forecast years, accounting for past exposure trends and specific intervention scenarios. Alternatively lifetime excess occupational risk can be estimated for newly exposed workers. Results In the UK about 4.5%, 13,600 UK cancers a year are due to occupation with 2,600 to 8,200 of these avoidable by 2060 given a range of possible interventions. In the EU up to 120,000 cancers could be avoided between 2010 and 2069 by introducing suitable occupational exposure limits. About 6% of cases of COPD in the UK are occupational. Conclusions These methods have been applied worldwide, and avoidable disease has been estimated to inform UK occupational health policy and to aid in setting workplace exposure standards in the EU. Challenges include limited data and necessary assumptions; using a consistent and transparent approach allows results to be compared.

2    Influenza risk mitigation strategies: a decision analysis with uncertainty and multiple attributes. El Haimar A, George Washington University (55)

Abstract: We conduct a decision analysis of strategic options available to public health officials to deal with influenza pandemics. The analysis integrates uncertainty in policy outcomes (via decision tree modeling), multiple objectives (via multiattribute utility modeling), and experts’ preference elicitation. Imprecision in experts’ preference judgments is propagated down to the expected multiattribute utility estimates via Monte Carlo simulation, in order to examine the robustness of the utility rankings of alternative policies. Influenza pandemics represent a serious disaster, which can have devastating consequences on economic sectors especially in the presence of interdependencies among sectors. Influenza virus can spread quickly through large groups of people across different regions. Such a disaster poses a significant issue for policy-makers. In assessing the impact of influenza pandemics, two risk measures are used, namely inoperability and economic loss. The inoperability of a sector measures the percentage gap between the ideal output and the actual output of the sector. The economic loss of a sector represents the monetary value of the degraded output. These two risk metrics generate two distinct rankings of top affected sectors that should prioritized in terms of risk mitigation. In a study by Santos et al. (2012) for the National Capital Region (NCR), findings show that the top sectors affected in terms of inoperability are health care related services, while the most impacted sectors in terms of economic loss are federal government agencies. Therefore, a potential policy-making issue is how to prioritize sectors in terms of risk mitigation strategies. In this work, we use the term “utility” to assess the efficacy of a risk mitigation strategy in reducing the adverse effects of a pandemic. One approach that could be used to assess the utility of mitigation strategies is by combining the two risk measures (i.e., economic loss and inoperability) using the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT). MAUT is one of the fundamental methods used in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). However, the process of constructing such an approach may involve some uncertainty, which will be modeled by integrating imprecise judgments from the decision-makers. This research study applies some fundamental principles in the field of MAUT under uncertainty to analyze disaster risk mitigation in the case of influenza pandemic. Some background about influenza pandemic dynamics, consequences, and risk mitigations is provided. The research presents MAUT along with different extensions to the basic multiattribute utility model. Specifically, this work incorporates an uncertain aspect of preference judgment. The research then introduces the methodology for constructing a multiattribute utility function and the simulation techniques used to model the uncertainty in decision-maker’s preference elicitation. The multiattribute utility function is used to evaluate the mitigation strategies alternatives outcomes and suggest potential recommendations. The results and analysis are based on Monte Carlo Simulation.

2    How much risk of gastroenteritis can be reduced by setting best-before date for eating raw eggs? Watanabe T, Yamagata University; Ono K, RISS, AIST (192)

Abstract: Eating raw eggs is common in Japan, irrespective of its high risk of infection with Salmonella enteritidis (SE). Tamago kake gohan (raw egg on rice) is one of the popular dishes with raw eggs. As long as eggs are eaten raw, it is difficult to completely eliminate the risk; however, it is important to quantitatively assess how much the risk can be reduced by controlling measures. In Japan, there are several measures for controlling the risk due to eating raw eggs. As for egg production process, sanitation control for poultry feed and vaccination of poultry are executed and the reported ratio of SE detection in eggs is very low (one in 30,000 eggs). Another measure is to set best-before date for eggs supposing that people eat them uncooked. In this study, we estimated the risk of gastroenteritis caused by SE in raw eggs based on the available data and information such as ratio of SE detection in eggs, growth curve of SE in eggs and dose-response model for SE via oral ingestion. The growth of SE in eggs, which is dependent on egg storage period and temperature, is known to show two phases, that is, stable growth phase followed by rapid growth phase. To consider this, we used the growth curve described by the following formula: D = 86.939 - 4.109 × T + 0.048 × T × T, where D is the time period (days) of the first stable growth phase and T is the storage temperature (ºC). The result demonstrated the risk increased with the period of egg storage, especially in case that the second rapid growth of SE started during the storage. The quantitative risk assessment in this study enabled us to discuss (1) how significant setting best-before date is to guarantee the safety of raw eggs in terms of health outcome, and (2) how much risk of gastroenteritis those who eat expired raw eggs should accept. These discussions will contribute to improved compliance of egg consumers.

3    Pursuit of food security through mobility in context of environmental changes: a case of Mongolia. Sumiya B, Seoul National University; (222)

Abstract: On one hand, numbers of people migrating due to environmental deterioration and extreme weather events is to increase with the current trends of the earth’s climatic changes. While on the other hand, the changing climate is estimated to affect the global, regional and local food chains profoundly, worsening the already existing food insecurity issues in many vulnerable regions of the world. Thus, this presentation examines the interconnections between migrations caused by environmental changes and food security in context of climate change, arguing that household’s pursuit of long term food security is one of the main drivers of migration in response to the changing environment. Case of Mongolia will be used to illustrate these inter-linkages between the changing environment, rural household’s pursuit of long term food security and urban bound migrations.

4    Uncertainty, Differential Toxicity, PM2.5 and the Life Saving Benefits of 8 EPA Rules. Good D, Indiana University; Krutilla K, Indiana University; Taylor B, Indiana University (305)

Abstract: Countries around the world, particularly in Europe and North America, have been struggling to improve health by improving air quality, particulary as it relates to fine particulate matter. This effort is confronted by uncertainties in three major areas: uncertainty in the atmospheric modeling of fine particulates and their species where some have pointed to nonconvexities in the mechanisms by which primary emissions result in fine particulates; uncertainty in the concentration-response function where some have pointed to issues with respect to causality, nonlinearity and differential toxicity; and normative issues surounding the valuation of outcomes and the ultimate efficiencies of different abatement policies. We examine each of these three areas of uncertainty. We integrate recent evidence from epidemiological studies and expert elicitations in the US and Europe with EPA’s standard reference studies from the American Cancer Society stream of research and the Harvard Six Cities Studies and their extensions, focusing on information about nonlinearity and differential toxicity with additional studies from Europe. Our normative discussion about the evaluation of outcomes examines valuation conditional on the age distribution of those affected. We use this information to reevaluate the life saving potential for eight recently promulgated regulations by the US Environmental Protection Agency: National Ambient Air Quality Standards, the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, Mercury Air Toxics Standards, Boiler MACT, Compression Ignition and Spark Ignition Reciprocating Internal Cumbustion Engine rules, and the Portalnd Cement Rule. These rules target different types of emitters in different setting and consequently are likely to have different life saving impacts resulting both from differential toxicity of some species of particulates, from the nonconvexities of particulate formation, and ultimately have different efficiencies as environmental policies.

5    Occupational Ill-health in the Singaporean Construction Sector: Cancer and Non-Malignant Respiratory Diseases. Courtice MN, IOM Singapore; Rushton L, Imperial College London; van Tongeren M, IOM; Hutchings S, Imperial College London; Cherrie JW, IOM (280)

Abstract: Workplace cancer and non-malignant respiratory diseases are important public health risks, a large proportion of which are caused by exposures in the construction industry. In Singapore, there are probably many more deaths from occupational diseases than from workplace accidents, but the actual numbers of deaths attributable to workplace health risks are unknown. An additional challenge is a largely foreign workforce who may only develop the disease once back in their home countries. Our study will estimate the burden of disease in Singapore as a result of harmful exposures experienced in the construction sector, including shipbuilding and repair, for both local and foreign workers. Using methods developed for a similar study in Britain, we have identified the hazardous exposures relevant to these industries and their associated diseases, along with the relevant exposure-disease risk estimates from the epidemiological literature. A job-exposure matrix (JEM) has been developed, based on the available data from these industries. The risk estimates and the JEM will be used to estimate attributable fractions (AF) and numbers of deaths for all newly occurring cancers and cases of respiratory disease. In addition, we will estimate “disability adjusted life years” as a measure of premature death due to occupation and lost quality of life. These estimates will be provided for each decade from 2015 to 2065, as a result of past and possible future exposure, incorporating various alternate futures. The Singapore government and other stakeholders have been consulted to ensure local circumstances have been appropriately considered and to identify possible interventions, e.g., lower occupational exposure limits, to reduce future risks. Proposed changes will be tested for their likely effect on future incidence and mortality for all relevant disease outcomes. Results will be ready in time for the SRA conference in July 2015.

6    Understanding the Role of Risk Perception in Vaccine Acceptance: Implications for Risk Communication. Quinn SC, University of Maryland School of Public Health; Freimuth V, University of Georgia; Hilyard K, University of Georgia; Musa D, University of Pittsburgh (314)

Abstract: In a research agenda related to vaccine decision making, Larson et al identified key areas for future research on risk perception including the need to understand post hoc rationalization, risk-benefit assessment, heuristics (regret, omission), and perceptions of vaccine safety and adverse events. Understanding risk perception is a critical element for development of effective risk communication strategies. Following extensive qualitative research to inform instrument development, we conducted a national survey in early 2015. The participants were randomly drawn from the GfK online research panel, which is representative of the U.S. population. GfK uses a combination of random-digit dial and address-based probability sampling methods to recruit panel members, with about 96% coverage of the US population. The sample included 1600 participants (800 White; 800 African Americans). GfK provides a weighting variable that includes both a panel base weight and post-stratification weights to demographically adjust the sample to the US population using the most recent Current Population Survey. The survey examined multiple components of risk perception; other attitudes toward vaccines with a particular focus on flu vaccine; trust; cultural worldview; vaccine behavior; vaccine knowledge; perceived social and moral norms about vaccines; the impact of uncertainty and other domains. Statistical analyses included factor analyses to explore risk perception scales followed by sequential multiple regression. Results will include examination of the association of specific aspects of risk perception with vaccine behavior. These results enable public health professionals to develop more nuanced and complex communications to foster vaccine acceptance in diverse audiences.

7    Developing the probabilistic pesticide residue model toward export promotion of Japanese tea. Shiga Y, Osaka university; Yamaguchi H, Osaka university; Tokai A, Osaka university (93)

Abstract: As the pesticides used in Japan have not been registered or have only established the extremely low maximum residue levels (MRL) in export countries, the MRL in these countries has been still maintained trade barrier of Japanese agricultural crops. In this research, we aimed to develop the probabilistic estimation model for pesticide residues in tea leaves, in order to estimate the exceedance probability of MRL. Based on previous studies, we first developed the mathematical model for estimating pesticide residues in tea crops. Second, the most sensitive parameter in this model was identified by the sensitivity analysis through this research. Finally, we probabilistically estimated the time-course of the residue level in tea crops by setting the variable distribution to the most sensitive parameter. As a result, the measured level in 3 substances out of 4 substances was within the 95% confidence interval of estimated values. We also identified the half-life of pesticides in crop as the most sensitive parameter and set the variable distribution to a half-life in tea based on observed data. This research analyzed to select 4 substances, having different physicochemical properties; azoxystrobin, bifenthirin, clothianjdin and spiromesifen. In the case of clothianjdin, although the exceedance probability of MRL in Japan and America was estimated to be 0.00 % at the 7 days after pesticide application, the exceedance probability of MRL in EU and Taiwan was estimated to be 99.9 %, 94.7 %, 83.8 % and 99.4 %, 77.2 %, 35.1 % respectively at 7, 14 and 21 days after pesticide application. This result indicated not only the export possibility of the Japanese tea to America, but also more than 30% residual risk at 21 days after pesticide application, when we expect to export to EU nations and Taiwan. In conclusion, our research suggested that it required to change the existing pesticide control system to promote exports of Japanese tea to these countries.

8    The humanitarian village, a response to small-medium sized disaster. Rahmayati Y, Centre for Design Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne - Australia (346)

Abstract: The growing number of disasters occurred for the past decades has been increasing the number of studies on disaster subject. The topics are varies ranging from theory, mitigation and management, educations, as well as design and planning for post-disaster context. The demand for products for emergency response has also increased. Not limited to food, medicines, blankets and cloths that must be made available immediately following any catastrophic event, but survivors also need shelters. “The great mass of survivors must get a roof over their head, and quickly above all”. Considering the important of providing shelters for survivors, the Centre for Design Innovation (CDI) of Swinburne University of Technology is embarking a project called ‘Humanitarian village (Shelter+) Project (sanctuary from distress, community care). This project focused on community-led design for better temporary pop up shelter villages for people escaping highly distressing scenarios, particularly smaller to medium sized events such as flood and bushfires. This project aims to bridge the gap between donor agencies with manufacture companies on how to design and produce the emergency and temporary shelters in the humanitarian context. It will be focused on small to medium disasters. It will be done through series and continuous collaboration researches in order to produce ‘prototype’ model design Shelter+ that can be development into several variants designs depend on the needed or contexts (type of disaster, location, culture, etc.). As a leading university who has strong collaboration with industry sector, CDI will also promote the Shelter+ models not only for the academic or humanitarian fields through related International Conferences but also promoting to manufacturing companies for the possibility of production.

8    Gathering Biosecurity Intelligence: the IBIS platform. Burgman M    (324)

Abstract: The Australian Department of Agriculture and New Zealand\'s Ministry of Primary Industries have been working with the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis to develop, test and deploy new tools for gathering timely and accurate biosecurity information from open electronic sources. While several other platforms around the world provide similar opportunities, IBIS is unique in combing open source searches with relatively flexible search terms, expert supervision and the potential to crowd-source opinions to vet information and solve problems. The IBIS platform has made several timely discoveries that have demonstrable biosecurity benefits. The research group has recently explored a number of new avenues for developing the system further.

9    Adapting to Vulnerabilities in Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons for Risk Governance from the Big Lift. Quigley K, Dalhousie University    (418)

9    Environmental Risk Assessment of chemicals in new regulated environments. Duchemin Matthieu, Consultant (332)

Abstract: Environmental risk assessment of chemicals or pharmaceuticals have been required in latest regulations to respond to potential disruptive effects of those substances in environmental compartments.The concern of the occurrence of pharmaceutical residues emerges in every large cities around the world and in developed and also in developing countries. While the first regulations were issued by North America and European states, other countries are aiming at protecting their environment similarly. Hazard assessment and exposure assessment are based on assumptions developed for North American and European countries and growth in South East Asia comes with higher expectations and more stringent safety measures from populations. Yet, while the paradigm of risk assessment remains the same, can the methodology be used with same figures of exposure and same assumptions on effects on local environments? How similar and how different are Western ecosystems from others? What can the outcomes be on local regulations?

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