World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Monday 20-07-2015

Risks Emerging from Agriculture, Mining and Trade

Room: Discovery   16:00–17:30

Chair(s): Carlos Perez Blanco

1    Water charging and water saving in agriculture. Insights from a Revealed Preference Model in Northern Italy. Pérez-Blanco C.D., FEEM; Mysiak J., FEEM (277)

Abstract: The large irrigation expansion of the last 50 years has increased pressures on water resources in EU Mediterranean basins. Water charging has been encouraged, since within the EU policy context it is widely believed that higher water charges reduce water use. This paper presents a Revealed Preference Model that provides a clear intuition of the logic behind farmers’ choices using standard economic analysis and implementing a multi-attribute utility function. The model is calibrated for the Agricultural Districts (ADs) in the Regione Emilia Romagna in Italy, an increasingly drought exposed area. The model is used to assess the effects of different water charges on farmers’ decisions and their impact on water use (i.e. water saving), gross value added and employment generation. SRA-World Congress topics: Water Security, Natural Resource Management, Economics and Financial Risks

2    Regulating Uncertain Risks of GMOs in the EU: Implications for China. Xiang Wen, Southwest University of Political Science and Law; University of Copenhagen (267)

Abstract: Abstract: Similar to many modern technologies, biotechnology indeed has brought certain socio-economic and environmental benefits, whilst it can also generate potential uncertainties. Due to the rapid innovations of technology and increasingly liberal trade, the regulation of GMOs is challenging the world in the context of the risk society, in which the current political, scientific and societal institutions are unable to effectively deal with these new risks (‘organized irresponsibility’). In the risk society, the legitimacy of the existing risk regulation regime, mainly based on scientific risk assessment, is called into question. More inclusive and transparent demands are urged to regulate GMOs that challenge the monopoly of expertise held by political institutions or leading academics, and facilitate ‘democratization of science’. An appraisal of the existing risk regulation regimes of GMOs in the EU and its implications for China will be provided in a comparative perspective in the course of the paper. The focus will mainly be the interplay of science and politics during the decision-making process, and the role of risk assessor and risk manager will be carefully examined in order to provide more concrete suggestions in terms of regulation of GMOs. It concludes that the scientific rationality should be balanced against the social and economic considerations to ensure the integrity of the risk regulation regimes in both the EU and China.

3    A Target-Oriented Robust Optimization Approach to Inoperability Input-Output Analysis. Yu K.D.S., De La Salle University; Sy C.L., De La Salle University; Aviso K. B., De La Salle University; Promentilla M. A. B., De La Salle University; Tan R. R., De La Salle University; Santos JR, The George Washington University (194)

Abstract: The impact of climate change on agriculture output poses a significant threat to global food security. Furthermore, the quest for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions has resulted to the use of agricultural output as a source of energy. Industrialized economies have been investing in technologies that develop crop species with higher yield to address the increased demand for agricultural output. However, the 2008 food crisis proves the world’s vulnerability towards the food versus fuel problem alongside the continuous growth in population. Such circumstances illustrate the need to strengthen resilience of economic sectors against disruptive effects of climate change. This study uses a target oriented robust optimization (TORO) approach to inoperability input-output modeling (IIM) in order to determine the optimal threshold level of inoperability for an economy that will allow it to produce a required level of output. Inoperability is a dimensionless measure that can assume a value from 0 to 1 to reflect a system’s inability to perform. Similarly, this translates to determining the optimal level of resilience that a system needs to build given resource constraints. Results of the study will be useful for policymakers in minimizing welfare implications of climate change to society.

4    The Role of Experience in Perception and Risk Analysis. Ribeiro R    (30)

Abstract: Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenology of perception comprises two main levels of analysis: the description of the general foundation upon which all human perception occurs and that of the lived, situated aspects of perception, as experienced by individuals. These ‘structural’ and ‘situated’ accounts of perception assume, respectively, the existence of a general body, which all human beings possess in principle, and of a historical body, which is the product of an individual’s perceptual learning or ‘synchronization’ with the world. A comprehensive and faithful description of human perceptual experience has to consider, simultaneously, general, structural, individual, and situational elements involved in perception. Such a faithful description has also to show the ways in which these aspects impact each other leading to distinct outcomes. I am proposing, here, a situated account of perception in which that which is perceived is the result of the interplay of three aspects: a) the embodied experience of individuals, b) the physical features of the perceptual scene, and c) the context. None of these aspects has an a priori primacy over or is, in principle, subsumed by any of the others. We can, nevertheless, think of them as ‘forces’ competing for the definition of what will emerge as a “figure” or recede into the “background” in each situation. In order to support this account, discussion draws on empirical cases of perceptual skill and learning described in research on apprenticeship in a large industrial plant near the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. Based on this account, I discuss risk analysis “at the shop floor” and the limits of modelling it.

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