World Congress on Risk 2015
19-23 July, 2015, Singapore

Online Program

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Monday 20-07-2015

Managing Trans-boundary Risk in the Asia-Pacific Region

Room: Creation   16:00–17:30

Chair(s): Tom Beer

0    Managing Trans-boundary Risk in the Asia-Pacific Region. Cogger N, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand; Seno-Alday S, University of Sydney, Australia; Wong C, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.; Beer T, Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd; Burgman M, Centre for Excellence in Biosecurity Risk Analysis, Melbourne, Australia (59)

Abstract: Convenors: Tom Beer - Safe System Solutions Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Australia (President, SRA-ANZ) Naomi Cogger –Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand (President-Elect, SRA-ANZ) Sandra Seno-Alday, University of Sydney, Australia Catherine Wong, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia. Australia and New Zealand, as well as the surrounding regions of Asia and the Pacific have unique issues face unique environmental and natural disaster risks as well as sharing many of the same risks as other countries in an increasingly globalised world. Within the Asia-Pacific region, regional cooperation in air pollution management is needed to tackle air pollution from forest fires from slash and burn practices. This has also impacted Australia through changes in precipitation patterns and rainfall, which has in turn changed the structure of vegetation in the Northern Savannas. Some Australian companies have implemented their own carbon abatement programmes independent of government policy and there is a national and regional need for innovative policy approaches and risk treatments. Other risks include expansion of the tropical circulation leading possibly to greater risks of regional migration of pests and disease. The risk trajectory, methods of monitoring, prevention and risk communication are all of relevance. This session solicits papers on all aspects of risk analysis, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication that relate to managing trans-boundary risk in the Asia-Pacific region. This includes papers on biosecurity, policy, business and economic risk, food, climate and epidemics, as well as natural disasters.

1    Managing trans-boundary disease in a world of freer trade. Cogger N    (248)

Abstract: The Asia Pacific region imports animal and animal products to meet their growing protein needs as wells as plant products (e.g. cereals) to feed livestock. The importation of these products creates a pathway for the entry of trans-boundary diseases that could impact human, animal and plant health. While it is logical that importing countries may wish to adopt measures to reduce the risk to human, animal and plant life they must do so in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Of particular importance is the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) agreement that states a decision to implement SPS measures must be based on risk analysis. This is a reasonable requirement, in principle, but in practise conducting import risk assessments is difficult owing to a high level of uncertainty. Firstly, the pathway by which the pathogen will come in contact with susceptible species in the importing country is often unknown. For example, the distribution networks may be complicated and poorly document. Alternatively, pathways of concern may relate to illegal activities and as such it is difficult to determine exactly what is happening (e.g. swill feeding of pigs). Secondly, there is often insufficient data to parametrise the model. Thirdly, it is difficult to estimate the consequences because the agent is currently not present in the country and as such models to estimate spread have a high degree of uncertainty. The high level of uncertainty is a major issue for government agencies who must meet their obligations to the WTO while protecting the health and wellbeing of their own citizens. This paper will explore the competing issues using several case studies. These case studies will be drawn from the authors research and consultancy work in Australia and New Zealand. The paper will conclude with a discussion of the key questions and challenges that face countries as they to work within the WTO\'s SPS agreement.

2    Asia-Pacific Agricultural Trade and Regional Food Security. Seno-Alday S    (163)

Abstract: The agricultural sector of many countries in the Asia-Pacific region accounts for a significant share of economic activity. International trade in agriculture likewise accounts for a significant proportion of imports and exports among countries in the region. Australia and New Zealand, for example, have large agricultural sectors that are actively engaged not only in regional but also global trade. The import and export of agricultural products among countries form a complex network of relationships and interdependencies that have important implications on the food security of individual countries and of the region as a whole. Drawing on the tools of graph theory, this paper analyses the agricultural trade networks among countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 1990 to 2013. In the network model, individual countries represent nodes (or points), and import and export flows represent edges (or links). The evolution of the structure and topology of the network over 25-year period is analyzed, and implications on food security are explored. The paper concludes with a discussion on how recent theoretical and empirical developments in graph theory can be used in risk analysis in economics, food security and other disciplines.

3    Innovations in Stakeholder Engagement in Environmental Governance: Examples from China and Australia. Wong C    (147)

Abstract: Global environmental change is one of the quintessential transboundary challenges of our times. While industry has often been blamed for being the source of pollution, new developments in some sectors show that they are increasingly pro-active in cleaning up their supply chains. This presentation compares examples from China and Australia, examining the different drivers for this development in each country, the conditions for success, and potential lessons that can be learnt from each other. The different demographic and policy context of China and Australia produces different forms industry-led environmental governance and stakeholder engagement. But both countries face similar challenges of managing industrial growth in the midst of an increasingly volatile and interconnected social and natural environment. This presentation seeks to highlight innovative forms of stakeholder engagement that have emerged out of this shared context: from local participation in environmental auditing of textile factories in China, to carbon farming using indigenous knowledge in contemporary land management practices in the northern savannah in Australia. Conceptually, this presentation re-frames the debate on regulation away from simplistic dichotomies between more or less regulation, towards more effective regulation. This eschews the simplistic and spurious ideological divide between states and markets by instead asking what assembly of instruments and actors – from the market, state, and third parties – can produce the most optimal outcomes for all stakeholders.

4    Climate and Food Security:Transboundary Issues. Beer T    (128)

Abstract: To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of climatic variability and climatic change on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Climatic variability and change also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a risk for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. Of particular interest will be whether the competing pressures on food, fuel and fibre will enable global food distribution to continue in a world that may two to four degrees warmer. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important “To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other...” This paper will review the international scientific communities’ approach to the problem.

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