MPM-B. Application of Decision Support Software Tools to Address Complex Environmental Management Problems.
Organized by: Terry Sullivan
Authors: Sullivan T, Brookhaven National Laborotory, Upton NY USA; Kiker G., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA; Didenko V., Obninsk State University, Obninsk, Russia; Grebenkov A., Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research TSullivan@bnl.gov
Abstract: Concept: Many large-scale environmental resource problems today are characterized by complexity, the existence of stakeholders with different value systems, several types of uncertainty, and conflicting management objectives. Environmental managers have yet to develop and test convincing methods to deal with these problems. This symposium will provide an introduction to state-of-the-art approaches, tools, and their application to large-scale natural resource problems.
Proposal
Environmental problems are often complex due to the need to incorporate many differing measures and views into the decision process. Environmental problems include addressing contamination issues, land use planning, optimization of ecological resources, minimization of health risks, and other large spatially distributed problems. Environmental decision-making strategies have evolved with the development of computer capabilities and analytical tools. Strategies often involve incorporation of subjective judgment to incorporate public and stakeholder values, economic analysis, toxicological risk assessment, ecological risk assessment, and methods to combine all of these measures. This evolution has led to an improved array of decision-making aides, including scenario planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tools that offer a consistent and reproducible decision analytical framework. The existence of different MCDA methods and the availability of corresponding MCDA and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools both contribute to the possibility of practical implementation of these approaches/methods when investigating spatially distributed environmental problems. This symposia will present an overview of decision support tools and provide three case studies covering different types of risk to sustainable development.
The first speaker (Sullivan) will provide an overview of decision support tools that are useful for large scale, complex environmental problems. The overview will discuss environmental problems and the factors that make them complex which include conflicting value systems and therefore beliefs on the best approach to solving the problem. MCDA tools include a variety of techniques including cost-benefit analysis where every criteria is monetized to multi-attribute value or utility theory approaches that rate different criteria on a common scale based on stakeholder judgment. A brief introduction to MCDA tools will be presented and their relevance and integration into environmental problem solving will be discussed. A survey of tools that are useful for these types of analysis will be provided and the strengths and limitations of each tool will be discussed.
In deciding among potential futures for land use there are usually conflicting objectives and visions between the various stakeholders (land owners, government, regulatory bodies, public, etc.). To bring all of the stakeholders together and begin a dialogue between them to help form an agreed upon solution is often a neglected, but important, first step in the process. The second speaker (Kiker) will discuss a participatory scenario modeling approach for development of the Mirador Basin.
The Mirador Basin is at the heart of the Maya Biosphere Reserve in Northern Guatemala, and was the dominant Maya city-state during the late pre-classic period (350 BC – 150 AD). Despite its globally renowned cultural and biological importance and its potential for tourism, El Mirador has yet to be excavated or developed, and is a two-day hike from the nearest village. In 2002, Global Heritage Fund proposed the establishment of the Mirador Basin Special Protected Area, a 526,000 acre park encompassing portions of Mirador-Rio Azul National Park, several community concessions, and two industrial concessions. The proposal was passed by Congress and immediately created great uproar with community organizations and conservationists due to unclear and overlapping resource jurisdictions. A vicious legal and publicity battle ensued, during which conflicts between archaeologists, investors, communities, conservationists, and government institutions escalated. Finally, in May 2005, under a new governmental administration, the new park was deemed unconstitutional and the law was rescinded. Recently, the government negotiated a $35 million Interamerican Development Bank loan for regional development. On Nov. 3, 2006, at an event attended by the President of Guatemala, all major actors in the conflict agreed to participate in ongoing multi-sector round table discussions to help decide how development in the Mirador Basin should proceed.
Many issues are simultaneously being negotiated including the type of development, access, tourism, regional development, natural resource management, the role of private investors, comanagement, community organization, security, and governance, all in a context of threats such as illegal land invasions, forest fires, narco-trafficking, human trafficking, looting, hunting, poaching, and uncertainty due to an upcoming governmental transition. Stakeholders have very different worldviews, interests, values, and ideas of the problem scope. There are innumerable public and covert proposals for different aspects of the development and management process. Tools for fostering effective participation and presenting complex knowledge in an accessible, adaptable format for diverse stakeholders and the application of the QnD model for scenario evaluation will be discussed.
The land contamination by radioactive Cesium (Cs-137) as a result of the Chernobyl accident has led to external and internal exposures of the local population in the Bryansk Region of Russia. Monitoring data and modeling indicate that more then 50% of the rural population in five districts in the Bryansk region live in settlements with a mean dose above 1 mSv/y (international regulatory benchmark). Thus, counter measures are required to protect the population. The third speaker (Didenko), will provide a case study using the DECERNS software to perform multi-criteria decision analysis tools for selecting remedial and abatement policies based on radionuclide distribution data and value judgment on the efficiency of different management alternatives. The criteria will include averted dose, residual risk, cost, societal preference for treatment options, ecological risk, and ecological benefits due to higher land productivity after remediation.
One approach to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis is to convert all decision metrics into cost. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) or Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) aim at assessment of all the costs and benefits of alternative options, using monetary valuations of all the main criteria for each alternative. When solving problems on environmental protection or remediation of contaminated territories, many criteria are not expressed a priori in monetary values. In this case conversion factors which transform advantages (benefits) and disadvantages (damages/losses/risks) into monetary values are used. The 4th speaker (Grebenkov) will discuss the application of CBA to the Dikoye Peat Land problem in Belarus. The Dikoye site is home to many rare plant and animal species. In place of the natural peat land, some would like to drain the land and convert it to farmland, leading to an immediate economic benefit. CBA methods for ecological impacts, just as for social costs, moneterizes the cost of ecosystem services and biological resources. Social and ecological costs, which human society pays for sustainability of its habitat and living environment, have a long pay-back period and therefore can not compete (in the near-term on an economic basis) with the near-term immediate benefits of industrial production. Therefore, this approach requires a special discounting rate for all cost and benefits of environmental protection measures. Methods for economic valuation of environmental measures (value of biodiversity including genetic biodiversity, value of living, value of nature production, etc.) are discussed. The test case evaluates and ranks over 20 different options based on ecological, economic, social, and technological costs.
The application of scenario planning and other MCDA tools permits solution of risk-based problems that are sensitive to the different needs and cultures found throughout the world. Integration of costs, risks, and social preference into a consistent decision framework permits the groups and individuals involved in the process to place their own value system into the decision process.
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