Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

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Common abbreviations

Symposium: Incorporating system resilience concept in environmental risk analysis

Room: Salon J   3:30 pm–5:00 pm

Chair(s): Zach Collier

Sponsored by Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Specialty Group

Environmental risk assessment has been considered to be an essential part of the risk analysis. Numerous risk assessment tools and modeling methods have been developed to investigate the environmental and exposure processes and characterize how the stresses will affect different communities and regions. In recent decades, numerous risk researchers have evolved over several decades of interdisciplinary collaboration. Particularly, an emerging concept that the risk analysis should not only involve the modeling of natural processes but consider the dynamics of the social system, in order to perform risk management. In fact, it can be considered that risks are part of our societal development process. As a result, understanding environmental risk is inherently interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary which requires diverse perspectives. The stakeholders of the environmental risks include policy makers, business sectors, communities, and individual citizens, among which effective communication has to be facilitated. From the recent development, the resilience concept builds on the conventional risk analysis approaches that add elements to address the complexity and inter-linkages of risks from different perspectives. To achieve this, a community-based approach considers that adaptation strategies must be generated through participatory processes, involving local stakeholders and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners, rather than being restricted to impacts-based scientific inputs alone. As such, expertise in vulnerability reduction must come from local community-based case studies and indigenous knowledge of locally appropriate solutions to the local exposures.

In this symposium, we will invite speakers to share their varied perspectives in terms of different disciplines and local communities. The key objective is to reach a common understanding about risk and resilience, and therefore facilitate the analysis of risk and build a roadmap towards resilience in a local community-based context.

W4-H.1  3:30 pm  Facilitating disaster risk reduction through community-based resilience building. Huang T*; National Cheng Kung University

Abstract: Risks are part of our societal development process. There are numerous risk analysis tools, showing us where and when conflict is likely, which areas are exposed to natural disasters, modeling how economic shocks and pandemics might spread, or how certain risk events will affect different communities and regions. Unavoidable natural and environmental events are amplified by long-term changes such as sea level rise and shifting climate patterns, and exacerbated by decisions—for example, urban planning and building codes—made years or decades ago. How we plan for these uncertain risks will determine how great the impacts could be for us and future generations. To reduce disaster risk, scientists must understand the systemic and dynamic linkages of environmental, socio-economic and health risks and how these are impacted by different policy measures. This will enable risk management and governance systems to be improved in order to facilitate long-term sustainable development. However, we do not yet share a vision of what to do about those risks. As a result of these concerns, a newly forming, more systems-oriented perspective to adaptation considers development and adaptation risks as strongly complementary. A community-based resilience building considers that adaptation strategies must be generated through participatory processes, involving local stakeholders and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners, rather than being restricted to impacts-based scientific inputs alone. As such, expertise in resilience building must come from local community-based case studies and indigenous knowledge of locally appropriate solutions to climatic variability and extremes.

W4-H.2  3:50 pm  Spatial-temporal-frequency manifold analysis of multipollutant emission variation and sampling. Tai-Yi LIU, Ming-Che HU*, Hwa-Lung YU; National Taiwan University

Abstract: This research proposes an innovative spatial-temporal-spectrum manifold model to investigate multipollutant emission variation and sampling. The model establishes a coordinate system with spatial relation, temporal correlation, and frequency spectrum of multipollutant emission. The Euclidean distances near data points are estimated. Accordingly, the Euclidean distance of emission data are reconstructed in a nonlinear manifold space. The newly developed manifold is used to analyze nonlinear spatial, correlation, and frequency emission relation. Furthermore, a manifold-based multi-objective monitoring optimization model is formulated. Then, the tradeoff between monitoring coverage and accuracy is examined.

W4-H.3  4:10 pm  Resilience, population, and economy: findings from a simulation of reconstruction from 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Maeda Y*; Shizuoka University

Abstract: This research discusses relationship between disaster recovery and population and economy. The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011 caused serious damages in Japan. This research created a system dynamics model of three prefectures in the affected area, Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima, and performed simulations to estimate trends of gross production and population in the three prefectures in the recovery process. As the results, the followings are found. Firstly, the three prefectures tended to decrease in the prefecture's gross production before the earthquake, and the trend of the model also showed a trend along that. Secondly, even with the addition of the reconstruction factors to the local economy, the prefecture's gross production will return to a decreasing trend when the reconstruction period expires, so it was not possible to grow only with the reconstruction. And thirdly, even if the labor input changes from minus to zero, it is possible to maintain the prefectural gross production at the level of reconstruction period in Miyagi prefecture and Iwate prefecture. It suggests that in these are, especially in Iwate and Miyagi where radioactive contamination has been not severe, input of labor force is more effective than that of investments for the recovery. This result is related to the production structure in this area. Statistical data in these areas suggest that the industry in this area is dependent on human resources. For example, agriculture, fishery, and tourism industry. If this production structure is maintained as it is, how to attract people will be the key to activation of the area in the future.

W4-H.4  4:30 pm  Challenges and uncertainties of environmental risk assessment with respect to emission estimation. Lee CH, Yu HL*; National Taiwan University

Abstract: Petroleum refineries are a major source of toxic air pollution such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). To perform the environmental risk assessment of hazardous air pollutants, it is necessary to estimate emission from petroleum refineries. Conventionally, emission estimation techniques for petroleum refineries are mainly based on emission factors. These factors include all activities and material sources in refineries. However, from the air quality monitoring system, the refineries can releases a huge number of different chemical compounds into ambient air. The formal procedures of emission estimation could not cover all kinds of air pollutants. In addition, the health risk of each chemical compound need to be calculated individually. Hence, the purpose of this study is to develop a thorough emission estimation process. This study area is an offshore industrial park in Yunlin county, Taiwan. Observations of hourly VOCs concentrations came from the nearby Taiwan EPA’s air quality monitoring site and air monitoring mobile station. While data exploratory analysis, the study found that all chemical compounds have unusual peaks occurred occasionally. Since the dispersion model in the study is a steady-state model, the peaks would influence the simulation results. Moreover, the environmental risk assessment evaluates the health effects based on the annual averaged concentration. Hence, the study altered the objective of simulation from hourly to annual average. However, due to the limited observations, this approach can induce significant uncertainties in the emission estimation. Furthermore, too many parameters in the inverse model caused performance issues. It would encountered over-fitting. To overcome this issue, this study developed a “surrogate model” to represent the inverse model. Based upon the emission and associated exposure estimation, the risk management plan is proposed to increase the resilience of the community nearby the study area.

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