Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Symposium: Integrated research for disaster risk reduction

Room: Salon FG   1:30 pm–3:00 pm

Chair(s): Ann Bostrom

Sponsored by Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group

The severity of a magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake in the Pacific Northwest is largely unknown, because no ground-motion recordings are available for such megathrust earthquakes in the region. To compensate for the paucity of recordings, the University of Washington M9 research team has collaborated with the United States Geological Survey to develop suites of simulated ground-motions for M9 rupture scenarios. These suites of motions were generated using physics-based ground-motion simulations based on a 3-dimensional seismic wave velocity model that represents the geological structure of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, including several deep sedimentary basins in the region (e.g., Puget Lowland basins, Tualatin basin). The team is probabilistically evaluating the consequences of a megathrust event on buildings and infrastructure, the potential for liquefaction and landslides, and the impact of a tsunami on coastal communities and major lifelines. The team is also studying the use of earthquake early warning systems and methods of effective community planning to mitigate the harm caused from future earthquakes. This session describes the advances in ground motion simulation and response of structures to long-duration shaking with significant basin amplification, perceptions of earthquake early warning systems, and a test of community planning approaches that include uncertainty and build on community values. Further, members of the team are leading the development a National Science Foundation-funded post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, with Oregon State University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Florida. The RAPID facility will enable hazard and risk researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, integrated post-disaster data.

W3-F.1  1:30 pm  Enabling integrated disaster risk research with the RAPID facility. Wartman JB, Berman J*, Olsen M, Miles S, Irish J, Gurley K, Bostrom A, Lowes L; University of Washington

Abstract: The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or “RAPID”) facility, at the University of Washington (UW) will enable natural hazard researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, post-disaster data sets that will enable characterization of civil infrastructure performance under natural hazard loads, evaluation of the effectiveness of current and previous design methodologies, understanding of socio-economic dynamics, calibration of computational models used to predict civil infrastructure component and system response, and development of solutions for resilient communities. The facility will provide investigators with the hardware, software and support services needed to collect, process and as-sess perishable interdisciplinary data following extreme natural hazard events. Support to the natural hazards research community will be provided through training and educational activities, field deployment services, and by promoting public engagement with science and engineering. Specifically, the RAPID facility is undertaking the following strategic activities: (1) acquiring, maintaining, and operating state-of-the-art data collection equipment; (2) developing and sup-porting mobile applications to support interdisciplinary field reconnaissance; (3) providing advisory services and basic logistics support for research missions; (4) facilitating the systematic archiving, processing and visualization of acquired data in DesignSafe-CI; (5) training a broad user base through workshops and other activities; and (6) engaging the public through citizen science, as well as through community outreach and education. The presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the RAPID facility, the plans for operations and user training, and an overview of the schedule for facility development.

W3-F.2  1:50 pm  Urban Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Green Infrastructure Theory. Zheng Hanzhong*, Xu Linyu; Beijing Normal University

Abstract: In recent years, the conflict between rapid urbanization and ecological environment are becoming increasingly obvious, meanwhile, more and more attention has been given to the urban ecological risk and urban human settlement. It plays an important role for urban sustainable development by assessing the ecological risk induced by urbanization as well as finding out the regularity of the ecological risk. At present, scholars at home and abroad focus their studies of urban ecological risk assessment on pollutant emission, climate change and natural disaster. In this paper, a green infrastructure theory is introduced, and by selecting ecological environmental elements including greenway, forest, park, wetland and native vegetation as an evaluation object to assess urban ecological risk. It aims to propose a systematic and robust strategic approach for urban sustainable development and ecological environment protection. Green infrastructure could not only provide habitat for natural species, maintain the natural ecological process but also protect the quality of air and water. Besides, it could promote the healthy development of the community and improve the health of the residents, and so as to ensure urban ecological security.

W3-F.3  2:10 pm  Engaging communities in tsunami risk planning with probabilistic hazard information. Grant A*, Abramson D, Bostrom A, Gonzales F, Leveque R, Greenfield M; University of Washington

Abstract: We present the development of probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for a coastal community, Aberdeen, Washington, and the testing of those maps in the Aberdeen Coastal Resilience Workshop. Participants were divided into four groups, all of which identified frequently-occurring hazards in Aberdeen and the Port as a major economic driver for their community and key to community resilience. The edge of the probabilistic map was essentially treated as the deterministic map. There was mild interest in the lower likelihood of inundation at the port. Groups had one of two framings for their discussions, asset-framed, or hazards framed. The asset-framed discussion groups focused on ties with community more than hazards-framed discussion groups, and were more open to positive aspects of community, and more open to relocation and cooperation with other communities than the hazard framed-groups. The experience included successful participatory GIS.

W3-F.4  2:30 pm  Earthquake risk experiences, expectations, early warnings, planning, and preparedness in Washington State. Bostrom A*, Ahn A, Vidale J, Abramson D; University of Washington

Abstract: Earthquake early warning is rapidly being developed for the US West Coast. Here we present the results of new survey research on risk perceptions, preparedness and interest in making tradeoffs between risk mitigation activities for seismic risk in King County. Survey data include state and King County samples.

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