Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Interdependent Inftrstructure Systems

Room: Salon FG   10:30 am–12:00 pm

Chair(s): Allison Reilly, Hiba Baroud

Sponsored by Engineering & Infrastructure Specialty Group

W2-F.1  10:30 am  Disruptions of Emergent and Future Conditions in Advanced Logistics Systems. Thorisson H*, Lambert JH; University of Virginia

Abstract: Supply chains and logistics systems are dependent on efficient flow of commodities. Port operations involve multiple stakeholders as cargo is moved between several modes: vessels, trucks, and rail. Balancing priorities of the various stakeholders is necessary to ensure successful long-term operations. This paper studies the influence of emergent and future conditions of commerce, environment, politics, and others on performance of terminal operations to assure resilience and profitability. Vessel berthing, that is allocating space and time slots to ships calling at a terminal, has been addressed in literature using operations research and optimization. However, vessel arrivals are highly uncertain and less attention has been given to the effect of disruptive scenarios on berth plans. In this paper, the disruptiveness of several scenarios is quantified in terms of cost, delays, and diverting vessels to other terminals. The scenarios include both short and long term conditions with potentially severe consequences. Examples are the proliferation of larger container vessels bringing higher cargo volumes, construction activities temporarily closing parts of terminals, and extreme weather events slowing down operations. Layers of uncertainty in the modeling process pertaining to external data quality, internal data quality, and insight quality are characterized. The methods presented can enhance the resilience of logistics systems by identifying disruptive scenarios and evaluating recovery profiles of several different response strategies. The approach can be extended to air traffic control, public transportation scheduling, and resource allocation for other logistics sectors.

W2-F.2  10:50 am  Transportation Network Vulnerability Assessment using Dynamic Traffic Simulation. Shekar V*, Fiondella L, Halappanavar M, Chatterjee S; University of Massachusetts Dartmouth and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Abstract: Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context of static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.

W2-F.3  11:10 am  Ontology-based approach to modeling interdependency of critical infrastructure. YAN JY*; ETH Zurich

Abstract: Critical infrastructures are providing flows of services, the disruption of which are seriously affecting society's functioning and well-being. There is an emerging trend of interdependencies within and between infrastructure systems becoming more coupled, making them prone to ‘domino effects’. While interdependencies within an infrastructure system may be represented as flows of networks, the representation of interdependencies between systems has been a challenge. In general, interdependencies of different forms have been identified and categorised into two types: flow and non-flow interdependencies. A comprehensive understanding of infrastructure interdependencies is a necessary first step towards better preparedness and more effective loss mitigation measures. However, limited work can be found on this subject, especially about the non-flow interdependencies. This work aims to clearly define interdependencies of critical infrastructures and build the framework for knowledge of infrastructures and their interdependencies. Based on this framework, a tool will be developed to represent interdependencies of different systems. As a navigation approach, the ontology provides a means to navigate through specific terms and definitions linked in a network of relationships. It can be manipulated directly as a standalone tool that offers the user a view of the domain coverage and the scope of the service. Ontology-driven approaches provide formal representation tools to represent systems and system-of-systems that are close to natural language, which fosters joint understanding. Once a formal consistent representation exists, ontology-driven information systems (ODIS) provide interfaces to answer what-if questions (query languages), to automate or semi-automate inferential reasoning. This ODIS can be used to connect to the existing database and support different applications. The ontology framework of CIs interdependencies can be integrated with other approaches to support different applications, such as resilience analysis and urban infrastructure development.

W2-F.4  11:30 am  Risk reduction assessment of innovative solutions to interdependent cascading infrastructure failures. Zimmerman R*; New York University

Abstract: The risk and consequences of cascading failures from infrastructure dependencies and interdependencies are now well known. These often span not only physical dimensions of infrastructure but also social dimensions affecting users and nearby communities and environmental impacts that can be widespread and long lasting. Innovations in the way infrastructures are deployed or used are becoming a popular way to reduce the consequences of these failures, especially in light of the increase in threats from destructive events, including extreme weather that interact with the interdependencies. Adaptations and mitigations have proliferated to reduce adverse consequences, and the next step is to identify conditions under which they are effective in confronting or counteracting negative impacts. This paper applies risk assessment research and methods to develop a strategy or concept to analyze the effect of innovations in reducing such failures. Innovations include reconfigurations, decentralization, radical changes in resource bases that provide infrastructure services, and behavioral changes in how infrastructure services are consumed. This exercise is complex since the innovations themselves have their own set of impacts. One platform that is used illustratively here is water retardation in the form of now common green infrastructures to identify how the scale or geographic size of the applications combine with the magnitude of the threat in terms of the flooding potential or amount and force of water to shape the effective design of the green infrastructure approach. Institutional arrangements and interventions in the form of infrastructure financing are introduced as risk decision-making and policy options that can alter the effectiveness of the innovations. The paper begins to fill the gap in risk science and management for assessing how infrastructure-related innovations reduce risk by taking into account a spectrum of special conditions under which they can operate.

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