Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Applied Risk Managment: Monitoring, Statistical Methods, Metrics and Communication

Room: Salon H   8:30 am–10:00 am

Chair(s): Willy Roed

Sponsored by Applied Risk Managment Specialty Group

W1-G.1  8:30 am  Real-Time Monitoring Tools and Risk Based Regulatory Oversight - The Internet of Things Case Study. Mangalam S*, Lal Das P; PRISM Institute

Abstract: Risk based inspections have proven to be an effective regulatory oversight tool particularly when regulators are facing complex and changing risks, limited resources and budgets and increased public scrutiny and expectations. Such approaches also have their limitations; they are typically based on historical inspection observations which are just a snapshot in time, there are uncertainties associated with the data and the mathematical models, and are typically overlaid with judgments that reflect political and/or public perceptions. The emergence of smart solutions such as Internet of Things (IoT) sensor technologies provide access to real-time data, significantly reduce uncertainties in model predictions and allow for creative use of resources. This paper describes a conceptual approach of the use of IoT solutions by regulators for the purposes of identifying and proactively managing risks, policy implications and value propositions. The paper also demonstrates actual case studies of such applications including those documented in a global study undertaken by the World Bank. The World Bank study examined the regulatory applications of IoT, policy implications, data privacy/ownership issues, benefits and limitations.

W1-G.2  8:50 am  Development and Implementation of a Risk-Informed Monitoring Program for the Saltstone Disposal Facility. Pinkston KE, Ridge AC*; US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Abstract: The National Defense Authorization Act for 2005 (NDAA) requires the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to monitor disposal of certain reprocessing waste that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) determines not to be high level waste (HLW). As part of this responsibility, the NRC staff monitors the disposal of salt waste at the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Salt waste at SRS is generated primarily from cleaning tanks used to store HLW from reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. The low-activity fraction removed from the tanks, called salt waste, is treated to reduce the concentrations of certain radionuclides and then solidified with dry grout to form saltstone. DOE evaluated the potential dose from the SDF by performing a performance assessment (PA) in 2005, a PA revision in 2009, and special analyses in 2013, 2014, and 2016. The NRC bases its monitoring plans on technical reviews of these DOE analyses, supporting documents, and other relevant literature on the risk significant processes. The NRC’s monitoring strategy prioritizes specific targeted technical areas called monitoring factors based on risk significance. Because the risks are expected to occur many years (e.g., hundreds to thousands) in the future, monitoring is based on model projections and indirect evidence of system performance. Model projections are used to evaluate what parameters are driving the system and to focus monitoring on the most risk significant parameters. However, a change in the model design can result in a change to which parameters appear to drive system performance. Similarly, when the parameter values used in the models change, the amount of justification required for a given parameter might also change. This work describes the regulatory process of balancing monitoring resources based on the level of uncertainty in a parameter and its projected effect on system performance.

W1-G.3  9:10 am  Risk evaluation in industrial property insurance based on fuzzy ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS. Sheikh Hassani N*; Akdeniz University

Abstract: Industrial units rely on industrial property insurance for safeguarding themselves against various risks such as a fire breaking out in production facilities, theft, destruction and etc. Insurance schemes are usually a major expense to industrial units, however, this expense could be compensated in two main ways: Firstly, through protection of properties and equipment which worth millions of dollars against losses and damages. Secondly, through protecting business against loss of sales and income which arises from damages to properties. This research introduces a risk evaluation method which can be utilized by either industrial property owners or insurance companies when partnering. Industrial property owners need to compare different insurance policies offered by different companies to make an optimal choice. Similarly, insure companies need an efficient tool to help them evaluate risks related to each industrial property before concluding an insurance agreement. This method uses a fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP) combined with fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to rank: alternatives risk policies for industrial property owners and risks of industrial properties for insurance companies. In this hybrid method, the suggested hierarchical structure allows for identifying inter-dependent criteria and ANP is used for calculating weightings of criteria. The output of ANP is then used by TOPSIS method to evaluate and rank risks/alternatives. A case study is presented to illustrate the capability and effectiveness of the model in assisting industrial property owners and insurance companies to assess risks properly and significantly improve decision making.

W1-G.4  9:30 am  Updating the tool-box for risk management - a practical case study. Røvang LB*, Gravdal T, Bersaas J; Gassco AS

Abstract: Risk matrices is a common tool in risk manage-ment within the oil and gas industry. It is simple and its broad prevalence makes it attractive from a practi-cal point of view. Risk matrices have been extensive-ly used in Gassco, first in the project department and later in all its organizational units. However, it is well known that risk matrices have limitations and many weaknesses in characterizing risk, and in this paper we will report on and discuss the experiences from the recent change made in Gassco to replace risk ma-trices with a more informative risk approach and de-scription. The change coincides with a new way of defining risk in the petroleum industry in Norway, in-troduced by the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Au-thority (PSA-N) January 2015. According to this def-inition risk is understood as the consequences of the activities with associated uncertainty. A main chal-lenge of the work has been to express the uncertainty associated with each risk event. A key motivation of the work has been to reduce the focus from where to put the risk event in the matrix towards a better un-derstanding of the risk and its underlying risk factors (risk sources, risk drivers), and thereby increase the ability to identify appropriate mitigating actions. The plan is to develop a new software supporting this change, making the organization with hands-on train-ing facilities for both methodology and practical use.

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