Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

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Common abbreviations

Symposium: Integrated Health Impact Assessment for Air Pollution and Global Climate Change in China

Room: Salon A   8:30 am–10:00 am

Chair(s): Ying Li

Sponsored by Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group

Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is an integrated, risk-based analysis framework for policy formulation. When applying to the field of air quality management, a HIA often includes knowledge from several areas including input-output analysis, emission inventory estimation, air quality modeling, exposure assessment, exposure-response assessment, and economic valuation. This symposium focuses on integrated HIA for air pollution and global climate change in China, the world’s largest developing country that has been suffering from severe air pollution issue over recent decades, and has also experienced noticeable changes in climate, which could further worsen air quality. This symposium includes four presentations that investigate one or more areas related to HIA for air pollution and climate change in China as follows: (1) A study of activity patterns of exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution in Chinese population; (2) An integrated study that evaluated the public health and economic benefits of mercury emission controls from the coal-fired power plants in China; (3) A study that combined multiregional input-output analysis, emission inventory and atmospheric transport model to investigate the effect of China’s interregional trade on atmospheric mercury deposition; and (4) An evaluation of climate change impacts on public health in China in Mid- and Late-21 Century based on future climate projections, population projections and epidemiological evidence of heat-mortality associations. All the four presentations cover an in-depth analysis of the impacts of air pollution and global climate change on the health and welfare of Chinese population using interdisciplinary approaches. These studies provide valuable information to support air pollution control and climate mitigation policy decision making in China and other countries.

W1-A.1  8:30 am  Activity patterns of exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution in Chinese population. Duan X*, Wang B, Cao S, Jiang Y, Wang L; University of Science and Technology of Beijing

Abstract: Environmental health risks are associated with not only the stress of environmental pollutants but also the characteristics of human exposure. Environmental exposure related human activity patterns, which are usually defined as ways of behavior and time use related to various environmental medium, are crucial parameters in exposure/risk analysis. With the rapid economic development, China is facing with deteriorating environmental situation especially the air pollution problem in some areas. To understand the activity patterns of people exposure to air pollution is prerequisites for China to make risk based policy decisions like standard making and risk control measures. This study focuses on the activity patterns of exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution in Chinese population based the first Environmental Exposure Related Human Activity Patterns Survey of Chinese Population (Adults) (CEERHAPS-A). Totally 91,527 adults from 9108 villages in 159 counties in 31 provinces were sampled as subjects using a multi-stage cluster random sampling method in which stratified factors are six regions (with different geographical and economic situation), rural/urban and gender. Face to face questionnaires interview was used for each individual subject about time-activity patterns in different environmental media and other related information. Responding rate was 94.6% in this survey, this is about 30% higher compared with former telephone based survey in other countries. We found that Chinese population in urban and rural area spend 12.5% (180min/day) and 17.7% (255min/day) of a day outside respectively (time in vehicle without a roof was included). For most provinces, outdoor time for rural population is longer than urban, except Chongqing and Sichuan. Season is an important factor influences time spend outside. The median value of outdoor time in summer is 1.17 and 1.71 times longer than spring/autumn and winter.

W1-A.2  8:50 am  Evaluation of China’s mercury emission controls in the coal-fired power industry: projection for the health and welfare effects. Zhang W*, Zhen G, Chen L, Wang H, Li Y, Ye X, Tong Y, Zhu Y, Wang X; Renmin University of China

Abstract: Mercury pollution has attracted much attention around the world, especially after the 2013 adoption of the United Nations Minamata Convention on mercury. Most mercury found in the atmosphere originates from anthropogenic emissions, such as coal combustion, non-ferrous metal smelting, waste incineration and mining. Coal combustion and mercury emission are closely linked, and coal combustion is estimated to be the second largest global source of anthropogenic emissions. The relationship between coal burning and mercury pollution is particularly relevant in China. Coal accounts for 70% of the primary energy consumption in China and coal-fired power plant is a major source of atmospheric mercury emission. Therefore reduction of mercury emissions from coal combustion in China is important for mercury control in East Asia. In order to implement the Minamata Convention, various emission control policies were proposed for the coal-fired power plants in China. What will be the effect of the mercury control policies, especially on the regional atmospheric transportation and health and welfare of residents in East Asia? In this study, we target to this question and evaluate the cost-benefits of the proposed mercury emission control policies. We examine the mercury emissions from the coal-fired power plants in China in 2010 as the baseline. Four scenarios of control policies, including the baseline scenario, the coal washing scenario, the device update scenario and the new energy scenario, were selected based on the emission control policies of the energy industry for the next ten years. The atmospheric mercury concentration and deposition under different scenarios were simulated using the Geos-Chem model. The effect of the policies on the mercury transport and the associated health benefits in East Asia were discussed. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, suggestions on the atmospheric mercury emission control for the coal-fired power industry were proposed.

W1-A.3  9:10 am  Trade-induced atmospheric mercury deposition over China and implications for demand-side controls. Long Chen*, Haoran Zhang, Wei Zhang, Xuejun Wang; East China Normal University

Abstract: The Minamata Convention was launched to inhibit mercury (Hg) risks on humans and the environment. Demand-side Hg controls are required to help implement the convention in China. Here, we combine emission inventory, multiregional input-output analysis and atmospheric transport model to investigate the effect of China’s interregional trade on atmospheric Hg deposition over China, allocate the consumer responsibilities for the deposition and assess the potential approach and benefits of proposing demand-side measures for China. Results show total atmospheric Hg deposition over China is 408.8 Mg/yr in 2010, and 32% is embodied in China’s interregional trade with the deposited hotspot over Gansu, Henan, Hebei and Yunnan province. Interprovincial trade considerably redistributes atmospheric Hg deposition over China with the variation range of -104%~+28% for deposition flux. Large imports of the developed regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) and Guangdong, could avoid much Hg deposition over their geographic boundaries but cause much additional Hg deposition over other developing provinces. Due to close relationships on interprovincial trade and atmospheric transport, the bilateral influence is considerably high within northern provinces and eastern provinces, such as the Jing-Jin-Ji region (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei) and the Yangtze River Delta, which could be the joint-control area. Transferring advanced technology from developed regions to their trade partners would be an effective measure to mitigate China’s Hg pollution. The measure implemented by different developed regions would result in different effects. Our findings are relevant to interprovincial efforts to reduce trans-boundary Hg pollution in China.

W1-A.4  9:30 am  Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China. Li Y*, Ren T, Zhang W, Chen K; East Tennessee State University

Abstract: Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world’s largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and largely unexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major metropolitan areas in China. This study focuses on 51 largest Chinese cities that cover about one third of the total population in China, and projects the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Using city-specific risk estimates for the 51 largest urban areas in China, we estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21 century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95%CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5 was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s. Findings from this study provides valuable information to support climate policy decision making and heat-related risk management in China.

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