Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Health Risk & Decision Analysis

Room: Salon C   1:30 pm–3:00 pm

Chair(s): Daniele Wikoff

Sponsored by Decision Analysis and Risk Specialty Group

M3-C.1  1:30 pm  Analysis of Hazard Evaluation Data and the Development of a Risk-Based Inspections Schedule for the Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi. Akl S, Turner MB, Rady AS, Al Ashram M, Kalimuthu , Lloyd JM, Beauchamp C, Al Hajer K, Al Waheebi A, Lillys T*; Research Triangle Institute and Environment Agency- Abu Dhabi

Abstract: In March 2011, RTI, in partnership with the Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi (EAD), introduced the Risk Characterization and Hazard Evaluation System (RiCHES) and Data Collection Tool (DCT), a new and innovative approach to characterizing the risk posed by facilities in four risk dimensions: First Responder, Process Hazard, Ecological, and Public Health. Since 2011, 1500 hazard evaluations have been conducted at industrial and commercial facilities in Abu Dhabi. The DCT is used to collect data in the field at these facilities (hazard evaluations) using tablet computers and the data are subsequently uploaded to RiCHES where the responses to the questions in the DCT are mapped to risk scenarios in RiCHES and scored. The DCT is used on a daily basis to collect data using a simple interface using questions with answers that are characterized as high, medium, and low risk. The scores and data are stored in an Oracle database that is accessed through an EAD website. There are features on the website that allow users to identify the primary risk drivers at the facility and industrial sector level; these would be the scenarios that are driving the risk scores at individual facilities and within sectors. The end result includes risk scores that can be used to rank facilities based on risk. RiCHES currently functions as a decision-making tool that helps EAD to identify those facilities with high risk scores that should be inspected more frequently, those facilities with medium scores that should be inspected on a more regular frequency, and those facilities with low scores that should be inspected less frequently. This paper will describe the data analysis approach that has been used to analyze the hazard evaluation data collected so far and the approach that was used to develop a risk-based inspections schedule for industrial and commercial facilities in Abu Dhabi to replace the time-based inspection schedule that has been traditionally used.

M3-C.2  1:50 pm  Application of Systematic Review in the Evaluation of Caffeine Safety: Potential Adverse Effects of Caffeine Consumption in Healthy Adults, Pregnant Women, Adolescents, and Children. Wikoff DW*, Welsh BT, Henderson R, Brorby G, Britt J, Myers E, Goldberger J, Lieberman HR, O'Brien C, Doepker C; ToxStrategies

Abstract: As an update to a foundational publication issued by Health Canada in 2003, a systematic review of data on potential adverse effects of caffeine was conducted according to the IOM standard. Five PECO (population, exposure, comparator, and outcome) questions to address five types of outcomes (acute toxicity, cardiovascular toxicity, bone and calcium effects, behavior, and development and reproduction) in four healthy populations (adults, pregnant women, adolescents, and children) relative to comparators: 400 mg/day for adults [10 g for lethality], 300 mg/day for pregnant women, and 2.5 mg/kg/day for children and adolescents (established by Health Canada) were developed. Data was extracted and risk of bias assessments conducted for the 381 articles meeting inclusion/exclusion criteria. Conclusions were drawn for the body of evidence for each outcome using a weight of evidence approach based on that developed by OHAT with slight modifications. When the total body of evidence was evaluated, and when study quality, indirectness, consistency, risk of bias, level of adversity, and magnitude of response were considered, the evidence generally supported that conclusions reached by Health Canada over a decade prior remain acceptable for healthy individuals (400 mg/day in adults, 300 mg/day for pregnant women, and 2.5 mg/kg-day for children and adolescents) for the outcomes evaluated. The results of this systematic review support a shift in caffeine research to focus on aspects such as characterizing effects in sensitive subpopulations and establishing better quantitative characterization of interindividual variability. This review, being one of the first to apply systematic review methodologies to toxicological assessments, also highlights the need for refined guidance and frameworks unique to the conduct of systematic review (e.g., multi-endpoint reviews) in this field.

M3-C.3  2:10 pm  Evaluating the capability of health systems with multi-criteria decision analysis. Montibeller G*, Del Rio Vilas V, Carreras A, Franco LA; Loughborough University

Abstract: The design of robust health systems against disease outbreaks is crucial for the management of population health but challenging for policy makers. It encompasses a wide provision of services and goods, from vaccines and doctors to educational and preventive campaigns, among many others. The evaluation of capabilities of such systems nowadays is typically based on checklists, but this prevents an overall quantitative assessment of the health system as a whole and provides very limited guidance for the efficient allocation of resources for capability building (or for the management of capability reduction when budgets shrink). In this paper we suggest that multi-criteria analysis can provide a useful framework for the quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of capabilities and support policy makers in an efficient allocation of scarce resources. We illustrate this framework for the assessment of capabilities against rabies, a neglected and deadly disease, which we conducted recently for the Pan-American Health Organization.

M3-C.4  2:30 pm  Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System. Babendreier J.E.*, Taylor T; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Offices of Research and Development and Land and Emergency Management

Abstract: The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemical releases from the land-based management of industrial by-products and other materials. Single-site or multi-site studies are conducted through deterministic or probabilistic simulation of one or more chemicals released from a material managed in one or more scenarios (farm field or land application unit, pond or surface impoundment, roadway subbase, landfill, material pile, or aerated tank). A typical application is comprised of up to four steps: 1) collect site-specific information for one or more sites in the contiguous US; 2) run sets of deterministic multimedia modeling scenarios across the site(s); 3) evaluate exposure and risk results; and, if desired, 4) calculate chemical- and material-specific screening concentrations for managing a material within each scenario studied. Spatially-explicit modeling is carried-out using the Human and Ecological Exposure and Risk in Multimedia Environmental Systems (HE2RMES) modeling system. To identify site locations and gather site-specific data needed for step 1, HE2RMES is complemented by the OpenTERRAworks 2D/3D Landscape Design tool, an open-source Geographic Information System (GIS) developed by USEPA. OpenTERRAworks acquires web-served data and provides the ability to, if desired, prospectively evaluate site-specific landscape modifications. Site-level data gaps are filled using regional and national datasets. Users can address uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, as well as leverage parallel computing tools provided for conducting larger studies. We present an overview and application of the broader system’s abilities to support exposure and risk assessments across a wide range of spatial scales, spanning site-specific to national scope.

[back to schedule]