Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2017

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Symposium: Cultural Property Risk Analysis

Room: Salon H   10:30 am–12:10 pm

Chair(s): Robert Waller

Sponsored by Applied Risk Management Specialty Group

Preserving cultural heritage, from ancient sculptures to contemporary art has been practiced for millennia but has only been addressed by structured risk analysis and management methods for about two decades. Still, there are features of this practice that are of interest to all in the risk analysis and risk management communities. Cultural property risk management practices bring together risk identification, definition, assessment, evaluation, communication, and management, as well as analysis of all those aspects, in a cohesive whole. This symposium will highlight applications of risk analysis to the preservation of cultural property with emphasis on ensuring all decision-makers receive risk-based information from perspectives that enable them to make the best possible risk management decisions based on their unique capabilities for managing risks. This symposium is presented as an initiative of the SRA’s Applied Risk Management Specialty Group (ARMSG) to present an exemplary case applying risk analyses to support risk management decisions in a fascinating and important domain.

M2-G.1  10:30 am  Risk analysis targeted to each and every manager's perspective. Waller RR*; Protect Heritage

Abstract: Museums, libraries, and archives use limited resources to preserve collections, ideally in perpetuity. These collections comprise a wide range of object and material types, embody many social values, and are subject to damage or loss from diverse hazards ranging from catastrophic fire to gradual light fading. The preservation system has been represented in a Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model (CPRAM). This model is hierarchical in the sense of Haimes’ Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM) and is kept as simple as possible at every level. It is intended for initial risk ranking and screening. As such, it serves as a guide to further, targeted risk analysis but can also identify egregious risks to be treated immediately. Medium to large museums, like any organization, are subject to silo effects. Taking advantage of preservation being a high-level institutional goal, together with the simple, hierarchical structure of the CPRAM, permits custom interpretations and representations of each manager’s ability to influence risk to collections based on the scope of control enabled by their responsibilities. Due to a combination of simple and complex attributes, cultural property risk analysis general, and CPRAM in particular, are potential hotbeds of innovation in organization-wide risk analysis and management.

M2-G.2  10:50 am  Evaluation of environmental risks and environmental costs at Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History. Bratasz LB*, White TW, Sease CS, Uthrup NU, Butts SB, Boardmann RB, Simon SS; Yale University

Abstract: Yale’s Peabody Museum of Natural History (YPM) has a long tradition of improving the environmental conditions for preserving its collection of more than 13 million objects. However, results are unexpected and far from what the museum hoped for as was shown by an analysis of the current environmental conditions in three museum buildings, built in 1925, 1963 and 2001. Analysis of energy use for climate control showed that the Environmental Studies Center, the most modern Peabody Museum building, is the least energy efficient of the three and one of the least energy efficient building at Yale University. Therefore, YPM decided to reevaluate its current climate control strategy towards a more practical and responsible approach, which takes into account the historic character of the buildings and the high cost of climate control. The assessment of climate related risks to collections was the main element in the transformation process towards a new strategy of climate control. It allowed preservation priorities of the YPM collections to be identified. Finally, guiding principles of climate control were proposed that meet the preservation targets of the museum’s vast collections and at the same time reduce energy consumption and lower CO2 emissions.

M2-G.3  11:10 am  Chemical deterioration and physical failure – risk-informed archive facility planning. Swiatkowska B*, Czop J, Jedrychowski M, Klosowska A, Okragla D, Skoczen-Rapala £, Bratasz £; National Museum in Krakow and Yale University

Abstract: The National Museum in Krakow, Poland holds one of the leading national collections of works on paper for which the museum is planning a new storage facility. Since 2015, the museum has been carrying out a collection risk assessment to inform facility planning. To assess value of objects, the collection was stratified into groups homogeneous in terms of type of object, theme or technique. Examples include drawings, watercolors, works of important artists and large groupings of documentary prints - portraits, religious, military or costume prints. Relative values of the selected groups were estimated based on their market values. More focused risk analysis is concentrating on two key hazards – chemical deterioration and physical failure upon handling. Scenarios were developed based on variable susceptibility of groups of objects to those two hazards. Criteria considered included: paper brittleness, paper pH, vulnerability of the technique in which the work was executed, and degree of protection of objects against physical forces. Next, the accumulation of damage from the deterioration processes or multiple events for each group within the specific risk scenario was estimated. For chemical degradation, damage accumulation was expressed as expected ”lifetime” of objects, calculated from the available expressions for the rate of paper degradation. For the physical failure from handling, the parameter was expressed as damage accumulation predictions for a selected time horizon of 50 years derived by museum conservators from long-term collection observations. Loss of value corresponding to predicted damage accumulation was estimated by museum staff by considering how the predicted changes affect the artistic value of the work, its documentary information, and/or the display potential. The information collected at all stages was introduced into a specifically developed software tool which calculated and presented magnitudes of risks across the entire collection.

M2-G.4  11:30 am  Preparedness and Response in Collections Emergencies (PRICE) – The Smithsonian’s Collections Emergency Team. Snell S*; Smithsonian Institution

Abstract: The Smithsonian recognizes the need for a collections emergency management plan integrated into the Smithsonian’s existing Emergency Management Program that focuses on the safety and security of staff and visitors. A robust program that includes collections emergency training, preparedness, mitigation, and response capability at a centralized level has been deficient in recent years. To foster best practices, the Smithsonian Collections Emergency Management Working Group was established in 2012 to study and make recommendations for improving collections emergency management, planning, preparedness, and response. This interdisciplinary group jointly co-chaired by the National Collections Program (NCP) and the Office of Protection Services developed Preparedness and Response in Collections Emergencies (PRICE). The purpose of PRICE is: • To strengthen and support museum-level and pan-Institutional collections emergency mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery capabilities, including policy, procedures, training, and logistics; • When activated, to provide collections support, response, and recovery as requested by the NCP and/or by individual museum Emergency Command Centers (ECCs); • To promote and foster improved communication and collaboration among Smithsonian museums and with first-responders, sister cultural institutions, and professional organizations. The PRICE team is part of the Smithsonian Emergency Operations Center and is generally available for advice, consultation, and assistance related to collection emergencies. In its first nine months, PRICE has developed multiple initiatives to revitalize collections emergency management at the Smithsonian.

M2-G.5  11:50 am  Analyzing Risk for Cultural Property during Armed Conflict. Wegener CA*; Smithsonian Institution

Abstract: Cultural heritage sites and collections around the world are currently at risk from one of the oldest and most damaging of man-made hazards – armed conflict. From the looting of the Iraq National Museum in 2003 to the intentional destruction of multiple archaeological and religious sites by religious extremist groups like ISIS in the past few years, cultural heritage professionals in several countries now face the potential for collateral and intentional damage from armed conflict at a rate not seen since World War II. While many may lament that there is little that can be done, colleagues working in today’s war zones have had significant success in protecting collections and sites using the same basic methods developed during World War II. These include coordination and negotiation with armed groups, in situ stabilization and security, and in the worst-case scenario, evacuation of collections to more secure locations.

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