Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2013

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

All Hazards Modeling

Room: Johnson A    1:30 PM - 3:00 PM

Chair(s): Jiyoung Park

W3-H.1  13:30  Hurricane Sandy and Lost Four Days in the U.S. Economy. Park J*, Son M, Park C, Richardson H; State University of New York at Buffalo

Abstract: Measuring economic impacts stemming from various natural disasters is an increasingly common interest in the U.S. Even since the U.S. economy experienced severe losses from the two hurricanes which consecutively hit the Gulf of Mexico coast in August 2005, we are still experiencing similar damage every year. The recent Hurricane Sandy is one of the greatest storms ever to hit the U.S. The recent physical disruptions and environmental damages caused by Hurricane Sandy demonstrate the fragility of NYC and Long Island in terms of built and natural environmental systems, having prompted the discussion of constructing seawalls and other coastal barriers around the shorelines of the NYC and Long Island area in order to minimize the risk of destructive consequences from another such event in the future. Unfortunately, the majority of these types of studies has depended upon governmental reports, focusing on the magnitude of direct building losses or on speculations about future impacts on a damaged area. However, these economic impact readings have not accounted for indirect effects via economic and trade linkages, even though most direct economic losses lead to further economic losses via inter-industrial and inter-regional economic relations. This study connected coastal hazards to economic impacts using the lost jobs during the first four days affected by Sandy available from a Census data source applied to the NIEMO model. While New Jersey and Connecticut are two other States seriously affected, we analyzed what economic impacts using short-term job losses associated with Sandy, tracing Sandy’s moving path from Florida to New Hampshire. Since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, we found Sandy had brought another tragedy mainly to the NYC and Long Island areas, reaching $2.8 billion in four days with 99% of the loss occurring in the last day of Sandy. Furthermore, the national impacts attained $10 billion losses as suggested by the NIEMO inter-industrial and inter-regional economic model.

W3-H.3  14:10  Managing Disaster Risk Strategies in Economic Systems Based on Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis. Yu KS*, Tan RR, Santos JR; De La Salle University / The George Washington University

Abstract: Natural disasters pose significant threats of disruption to economic systems. These disruptions lead to either loss of final demand, loss of supply of goods or both. The interdependence among the various sectors in a disrupted regional economy creates an amplified effect on the initial impact of such extreme events, which could induce additional vulnerability. This paper develops an extension to the IIM in the form of a vulnerability index, which can provide policy makers with a tool to measure the efficiency of post-disaster risk management strategies, considering economic impact, diversity and sector size as the determinants of sector vulnerability. The vulnerability index captures the impact of investments to various sectors in times of disaster in order to yield the maximum returns to the entire economy. This paper discusses seven scenarios that a policy maker may consider (1) preference on economic impact only, (2) preference for diversity of reach only, (3) preference on sector size only, (4) equal preference for all components, (5) priority preference for economic impact and diversity but none for sector size, (6) priority preference for economic impact and sector size but none for diversity, and (7) priority preference for diversity and sector size but none for economic impact. Varied results are generated across each scenario depending on the preference structure of the policy maker with respect to the vulnerability index components. Nevertheless, some sectors are less sensitive to such preference variations and may persist on their level of priority, independent of the scenario. Applying these to the Philippines, we find that the trade sector is consistently a high priority sector, while the government services sector tends to be a low priority sector. The manufacturing and transportation sectors are top priority sectors. However, disregarding sector size as part of the policy maker’s preference criteria reduces the priority level of the two sectors.

W3-H.4  14:30  Ideal Disaster Relief?: Using the IFRC Code of Conduct in model development. Coles JB*, Zhuang J; University at Buffalo

Abstract: Bridging the gap between research and practice has been a recognized problem in many fields, and has been especially noticeable in the field of disaster relief. As the number and impact of disasters have increased, there has been great interest from the research community to model and provide solutions for some of the challenges in the field. However, this research has not always been guided by an understanding of the complex and nuanced challenges faced by people working in disaster relief. In this talk we propose a model for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Code of Conduct (CoC) for use in relief operations. The CoC provides organizations involved in disaster relief with a clear set of expectations and objectives for behavior in a relief operation. The CoC is nonbinding and is designed to help organizations self-assess and refocus disaster relief operations. Additionally, the code provides a list of standards that could be used to assess a potential partner to ensure operational excellence and make sure that investments in relief are conducted with the utmost integrity. Though there are several standards and codes that apply aid and disaster relief, the CoC is of particular interest because it examines the methodology of operations rather than just a minimum goal (such as the SPHERE standards) or an overarching philosophy (such as the Seven Fundamental Principles of the IFRC).

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