Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2013

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Infrastructure Management and Investment

Room: Latrobe   10:30 AM- 12:00 PM

Chair(s): Shital Thekdi

Sponsored by EISG

T2-I.1  10:30  Addressing Uncertainties of Avoided Crash Risk, Travel Time Savings, and Lifecycle Costs in Transportation Access Management . XU J*, Lambert J.H.; University of Virginia

Abstract: Access management in transportation planning can save travel time, reduce crashes, and increase route capacities. The literature suggests a need for performance metrics and a decision-aiding framework to guide access management programs across large corridor networks and diverse time horizons. This research discusses a quantitative framework to support access management programs decision making, applying multicriteria analysis and cost-benefit analysis with data and parameter uncertainties. The metrics used to assess relative needs at existing access points include: crash intensity, crash exposure, travel time delay factor, access point density, traffic exposure, value of time, costs of typical access management activities, etc. Uncertain data and parameters that influence the estimates of potential benefits and costs are identified and treated via a numerical interval analysis. The framework is demonstrated at several geographic scales and locations including six thousand miles of highways of a geographic region and its several sub-regions. The results assist decision makers to find from various perspectives which route segments should be addressed sooner by collection of additional data, reserving right of way, closing access points, new alignments, development proffers, etc. The methods combing uncertainty analysis, multicriteria analysis, and cost-benefit analysis should be interest to engineers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in the strategic planning of access management and other multiscale systems, and are transferable to other topics involving cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, evidence-based decision aids, strategic resource allocation, and others.

T2-I.2  10:50  Applying multi-criteria decision analysis and life cycle approaches to direct engineering research regarding the selection of CZTS back-contacts for thin film solar photovoltaics . Scott RP*, Cullen AC; University of Washington

Abstract: Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) thin film photovoltaics are currently in the research phase as a potential method of producing electricity for $0.50 per watt at terawatt scales of production using abundant earth materials. Many uncertainties have arisen in terms of scalable manufacturing methods, device materials, and social and economic feasibility. One area of uncertainty in the quest to scale up production results from current use of molybdenum as a back-contact material, due to concerns about price volatility. However, research on potential substitution materials, including graphite, graphene, and molybdenum on steel, is still in the earliest stages. Since the broader goals of photovoltaics involve producing energy in a manner that protects both the environment and human health, developing the new back contact material without first considering the long-term price feasibility and impacts to health and environment could derail the future commercial viability of the thin film technology. This case provides an empirically based analysis of using decision tools to inform research directions in emerging technology so as to avoid negative consequences. First proposed by Linkov et al (2007), a combined approach of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, Risk Assessment, and Life Cycle Assessment allows for the application of available risk assessment and life cycle data within a larger decision framework. This work assesses the limitations of MCDA-RA-LCA while providing valuable decision analytic information to CZTS engineers. For the case of CZTS back contact selection, MCDA is used to assess the various material options with the goal of maximizing future device utility through optimizing across cost, environment, and health metrics. Application of utility theory and the use of Monte-Carlo simulation to partition significant sources of uncertainty allows the selection of materials to incorporate social responsibility and risk minimization alongside future technical promise.

T2-I.3  11:10  A Fuzzy-VIKOR model for risk assessment of environmental management system implementation in construction projects. Assadian MS*, Sadeghi F; Isfahan Regional Center for Business Incubators & Science Parks Development

Abstract: Increasing human demands and limitation of natural resources has brought environmental issues into more consideration in recent decades. Construction industry is known as least sustainable industries in the world; consuming about 50% of global energy and water consumption. Also, around half of the climate change gases are produced by buildings. These problems indicate a growing tendency for Environmental Management System (EMS) implementation in construction projects. EMS suggests some benefits by increasing compliance and waste and energy reduction. For instance, it provides positive effect on environmental performance of construction companies; also it drives to improve the performance of construction site management in water and energy consumption. Beside this positive aspect, as any strategic policy change, it consists of a certain degree of risk which could lead to different problems. Hence, an appropriate risk assessment method is needed. In most cases, as EMS implementation goes together with change in strategy, policy maker is faced with multi alternatives to select. Accordingly, this could be described as multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. From different available methods for MCDM problems, we chose VIKOR because generally there are conflicts between environmental criteria and other aspects of projects including cost, time, and quality. Also we applied Fuzzy to adjust our model with uncertainty accompanied with environmental issues. The model is presented to apply for policy/decision makers to increase the success probability of EMS implementation in construction industry.

T2-I.4  11:30  Risk-based investment for prison infrastructure systems. Thekdi SA*; University of Richmond

Abstract: By 2018, the Bureau of Prisons network is expected to operate at 45% above inmate capacity (GAO 2012). Limited research has evaluated the management of prison infrastructure systems from a risk-based perspective. Overcrowding may result in avoidable government expenditures, degraded security, sanitary concerns for inmates, and inadequate rehabilitation programming. Traditionally, demand planning and management for prison infrastructure have been addressed through prison sentencing in court systems. However, this work addresses the risks associated with prison management through the evaluation of rehabilitation programs, investments in capacities, and other program analysis methods. A multicriteria analysis is used to prioritize investments to reduce vulnerabilities of prison systems.

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