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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2009

Risk Analysis: The Evolution of a Science

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Risk-Informed Organizational and Management Decision-Making Sponsored by DARSG

Room: Baltimore A   8:30-10:00 AM

Chair(s): Debra Decker

W1-A.1  8:30  Methodology for the assessment of the impact of informal processes on an organization's risk. Ross LM*, Mosleh A; Center for Risk and Reliability, University of Maryland

Abstract: A service industry launched a new product, one heralded as the best in the world. Informal processes associated with the product included the omission of required procedures, the unavailability of required equipment, ignoring vital communication, and not following standard protocol for the environment in which the product was operating. The culmination of these informal processes led to the deaths of 1,523 people. The product heralded as the best in the world, became the most infamous product as the RMS Titanic sank to the ocean floor on April 14th, 1912. Informal processes (activities that are not formalized with respect to the inputs, resources, and/or controls; or an activity that deviates from a formal process) exist, and can impact an organization’s risk. Informal processes affect all aspects of an organization’s business. Informal processes cannot be eliminated (nor should they necessarily be). A methodology for the assessment of the impact of informal processes on an organization’s risk has been developed that will enable businesses and organization’s to have more accurate and complete data from which to make their decisions. To assess the impact of informal processes, Bayesian Belief Networks were utilized to determine the probability of the process output failure with the inclusion of informal processes and then after the informal processes were brought into the formal system. It has been determined that when either informal processes that are beneficial to an organization are brought into the formal system, or detrimental informal processes are eliminated, the probability of the output failure decreases. The ability to assess the impact of the informal processes and to manage their occurrence within an organization will allow an organization to more effectively manage their risk.

W1-A.2  8:50  Is there a possible synergy between Sustainability and Safety? A sustainable development plan for a public institute in the field of industrial environment and risks. Myriam Merad MMe*, Frédéric Marcel FMa; INERIS

Abstract: The rarefaction of natural resources, the breathlessness of the economic model of development by the continuous increase of the industrial sector, the multiplication of the harmful effects for the man and the environment invite the most industrialized and emerging countries to reconsider their governance model. In France, Ministries of Environment and Industry conduct a join project within a think tank to produce a guideline for the implementation of Sustainable Development approach within the public sectors. Conscious of these stakes, INERIS as a research and expertise institute in the field of industrial environment and risks signed in 2008 the Sustainable Development charter (convention) and engaged itself in a strategic reflection. This paper aims at both demonstrating the complementarities between risk management approaches and Sustainable Development approaches and share the experience of implementing a decision aid methodology to work out a strategy and actions plans for Sustainable Development within INERIS. We will first present the French regulation in terms of sustainable development. We will then present the new challenges and new methodological suggestions to a complementary vision between risk management and sustainable development approaches and discuss about the INERIS case. To finish, we will discuss new perspectives for new governance model for expertise within industrial environment and risks considering the French culture.

W1-A.3  9:10  From Integrated Risk Management to Enterprise Risk-based Decision Support: A Phased Approach. Krishen L*; Futron Corporation

Abstract: In technology-related endeavors, applied risk management often results in a “stove-piped” approach by organization and is also influenced by a tactical versus strategic project management perspective. But,conversely,decisions and risk mitigation plans are then implemented at the enterprise level, resulting in a gap in an effective risk management process overall.This presentation discusses the strategic and tactical aspects of merging top-down integration processes driven by enterprise risk management (RM) needs with the bottom’s up approach of building and defining risk-based decision support initiatives. The merging of the RM processes with risk-based decision implementation is needed especially with changes at enterprise levels. To meet unique challenges posed by a Government agency undergoing organizational transformation, we developed a comprehensive strategy using enterprise-level decision management initiatives. Results of employing enterprise-level risk factors identification, strategic communications, and collaborative mitigation methodologies will be presented. Integration issues identified in existing risk information management tools and implementation methods will be presented. Additionally, the presentation will discuss innovative approaches to solving the integration issues in existing risk information management tools and implementation methods. The conclusions will be presented within the context of building a new and phased approach to Agency-wide strategic risk and decision management. This presentation will help provide best practices and lessons learned to RM practitioners and consultants facing the complex and unique challenges posed by clients undergoing enterprise and agency-level reorganization.

W1-A.4  09:30  Risk of what? Using enterprise risk management to consider national interests in a dynamic international context. Decker D*; Booz Allen Hamilton and Harvard University

Abstract: The field of risk management has expanded from some straight forward applications of risk analysis in limited decision frameworks (understanding hazards and helping to analyze choices around specific problems) to today’s broad applications of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) within organizations, including increasingly within some government agencies. ERM can be an effective way to manage multiple risks within an organization trying to fulfill a specific mission. Can these ERM principles be effectively applied at the next higher level, that is to help a country think about ways not only to protect but also to maximize its national interests? One challenge in risk management is framing the nature of the interests and harms to those interests. Whereas an organization may have a specific mission and express risk in terms of fulfilling that mission, the national interests are less clearly defined and agreed let alone managed within a risk framework. This presentation will first consider how national interests are defined and how they might be defined within a generalized social welfare framework for a country operating in an inter-dependent international environment, and then apply some ERM concepts, including managing risks as a system, to helping a country secure its interests. The types of “power levers” needed to manage national risks will then be considered.

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