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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2009

Risk Analysis: The Evolution of a Science

Session Schedule & Abstracts


* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

M4-F
Application of GIS and Spatial Statistics as a Utility for Ecological Problem Solving Sponsored by BSSG

Room: Homeland   3:30-5:10 PM

Chair(s): David Oryang



M4-F.1  15:30  Assessing the risk of contact and transmission of Bovine Tuberculosis between Cattle and Deer for the purpose of Regionalization. Miller R*, Portacci K, Bush E, Freier J; USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services   ryan.s.miller@aphis.usda.gov

Abstract: Bovine TB has been identified in nine geographically distinct wildlife populations in North America and has become endemic in at least five of these populations. In 1994 and 2005 Mycobacterium bovis (bTB) was found to be endemic in free ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in Michigan and Minnesota causing significant challenges for control of the pathogen. The establishment of a wildlife reservoir for bTB in these states prompted the regionalization to reduce the risk of spread of bTB. In Minnesota the USDA applied OIE risk assessment process to evaluate the risk associated with a proposed region to control the spread of bTB after the detection of M .bovis in 11 cattle herds and free-ranging white-tailed deer. Geospatial methods where used to aid in determining the size and extent for the regionalized zone. Information obtained from epidemiologic investigations was used to identify potential pathways and the likelihood of M. bovis spread outside of the proposed TB control region. Using these methods we evaluated the potential movement (dispersal) of white-tailed deer out of the zone, the relationship between affected cattle herds and affected white-tailed deer and the potential movement of cattle into and out of the zone. The epidemiologic analysis concluded that transmission of M. bovis in the proposed region is active and due to local area spread. The majority (61%) of infected deer were within 5 km of affected cattle herds, implicating deer as a possible source of infection. Deer dispersal was evaluated and it was determined that the zone would contain potential deer movement. The risk analysis provided information to decision makers that can be used to guide modification to the proposed plan to help minimize the risk of M. bovis spread outside of the control region.

M4-F.2  15:50  Rift Valley Fever risk mapping: Contribution to response planning and control. Anyamba A*, Linthicum K.J, Small K, Britch S.C., Smith M, Pak E, Chretien J, Tucker C, Witt C; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. USDA-Center for Medical, Agricultural & Veterinary Entomology Gainesville, Florida. Walter Reed Army Institute for Research, Silver Spring Maryland   asaph.anyamba-1@nasa.gov

Abstract: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease of domestic ruminants in Africa. RVF was first described in 1930 in the Rift Valley of Kenya. RVF generally occurs during years of unusually heavy rainfall and when localized flooding occurs.  The excessive rainfall facilitates floodwater Aedes mosquito eggs to hatch.  Aedes mosquitoes acquire the virus from feeding on infected animals, and are capable of transovarial transmission (transmission of the virus from infected female mosquitoes to offspring via eggs), so new generations of infected mosquitoes may hatch from their eggs.  This provides a durable mechanism for maintaining the virus in nature, as the eggs of these mosquitoes may survive for periods of up to several years in dry conditions.  Once livestock are infected, a wide variety of mosquito species with enhanced breeding following high rainfall may act as vectors for transmission of RVF virus (RVFV) and can spread the disease. The disease has severe impacts on animal and human health and negative impacts on livestock trade, food supply and economics The disease has since occurred episodically over most parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Egypt over the last 40 years. In September 2000, following a massive East African RVF outbreak, the disease was reported in Saudi Arabia, representing the first RVF cases identified outside Africa and illustrating the spread of RVF into new areas. In this paper we illustrate how the monitoring of ecological and climate conditions using satellite remote sensing data combined with geographic information systems and risk mapping over the last 10 years led to the first prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak providing adequate lead time to decision makers for response planning and control for various regions over Africa from 2006 to 2009.

M4-F.3  16:10  Use of geospatial patterns in targeting quarantine pests at US Ports. Auclair A*, Chioino C, Oryang D; USDA-APHIS, USDA-APHIS, FDA-CFSAN   allan.auclair@aphis.usda.gov

Abstract: PestID is the largest, most complete and systematic interception database on pests in world trade. It is APHIS’ unique 25-year (1984-2008) electronic archive of pest interceptions at the nation’s 326 ports-of-entry. It tracks 8645 quarantined species, and now contains 1.4 million records on 6.2 million live organisms. Many now recognize that its’ analysis is absolutely critical to innovating the Agency’s core functions of early warning, targeting, and detection. Toolkits are being developed which will enable the Agency to allocate staff and other resources to US Ports based on the risk posed by a given volume of a specified commodity arriving offshore from a given origin and a given time of year. Early analyses of patterns in PestID clearly identify globally ‘epicenters’ of pest origin, and marked changes in pest frequency at these epicenters. When standardized for trade volume, climate indicators provide important clues on what ‘drives’ marked seasonal and year-to-year variation in levels of quarantined pests. A statistical test measuring the expected improvement in detection rates using simple PestID source and commodity data suggests the Agency could save millions by better timing and allocation of inspectors among the nation’s ports.

M4-F.4  16:30  Risk-based eargeted surveillance: Identifying areas and populations of Importance for surveillance of High Path Avian Influenza. Miller R, Farnsworth M.L.*, Franklin A.B., Freier J.E.; USDA-APHIS-VS, USDA-APHIS-VS, USDA-APHIS-WS, USDA-APHIS-VS   Matthew.L.Farnsworth@aphis.usda.gov

Abstract: The recent emergence of Asian H5N1 and its rapid spread throughout Asia, Europe and Africa has focused attention on the need for enhanced avian influenza surveillance. Waterfowl and shorebirds appear to be the primary natural reservoirs for type-A influenzas and have been implicated as the progenitors of previous human flu pandemics. Avian influenza surveillance programs have been established to detect the H5 and H7 subtypes of AI in domestic poultry and wild waterfowl. However, early detection of avian influenza requires risk-based targeted surveillance of populations at highest risk for emergence of the virus. Using knowledge about the ecology of migratory waterfowl and the distribution of poultry farms, areas of importance for surveillance of wild waterfowl and domestic poultry can be identified. With limitations, continental movements of waterfowl can be estimated using data from bird band data. Analysis focused on waterfowl functional groups thought to be responsible for large-scale movements of avian influenza. Recoveries of banded birds were used to identify areas within the mainland United States where higher proportions of migrant waterfowl originating from breeding areas in Asia, Alaska, and Canada congregate. In addition, National Agricultural Statistics Service data on the number and size of poultry farms was used in conjunction with the bird banding data to identify areas important for enhanced surveillance in domestic poultry flocks. National Wildlife Refuges and State Wildlife Areas with higher occurrence of high risk migrant waterfowl were prioritized for avian influenza surveillance. These refuges represented 9% (918) of all National and State Wildlife Refuges and represent 72% of all band recoveries for birds originating from Alaska and Asia recovered on refuges. Ranking of areas with domestic poultry flocks identified 15% of counties where enhanced surveillance may help detect emergence of Avian Influenza.

M4-F.5  16:50  Spatio-temporal modeling of seed and pollen-mediated gene transfer from genetically modified plants. Oryang D*, Auclair A, Chioino C; Food and Drug Administration, USDA-APHIS   david.oryang@fda.hhs.gov

Abstract: Genetically modified plants have helped to make crops more competitive in ecosystems by fortifying them with disease resistance, drought tolerance, insect resistance, saline tolerance, and a wide host of selective traits. Genetic modification has also enabled crops to be designed for the consumers taste (increasing the worlds variety, production and shelf life of food). Plants can be engineered to provide a more sustainable, healthy and productive source of food, while reducing the environmental impacts of their cultivation. However, when these genetically engineered crops hybridize with other related species, and get established in the environment, undesirable consequences can result. A stochastic, spatio-temporal model has been developed to examine the magnitude and extent of seed and pollen mediated gene flow from seed production sites (and cultivation areas) to environmental areas where establishment of the genes is undesirable. This model can be used to examine where, and under what conditions, it is safe to grow genetically altered crops. The model is programmed in Visual Basic, and is integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to present the temporal results as layers on a map. The model can be adapted for use with different crops, including trees. An example of glyphosate tolerant crops is presented.



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