HomeAbout SRAMembersEventsNewsletterJournalsOpportunitiesResourcesContact

Back to 2009 Meeting Main Page

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2009

Risk Analysis: The Evolution of a Science

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

M4-D Poster Platform: Risk Communication and Natural Hazards Room: Salon E   3:30-5:00 PM

Chair(s): Kjetil Rod

M4-D.1  15:30  The use of 3D technology to mimic real flooding experiences and consecutive coping responses. Zaalberg R*, Midden CJH; Eindhoven University of Technology   r.zaalberg@tue.nl Abstract: Delta areas are threatened by the consequences of global climate change. The Netherlands are prone to future flooding due to extreme discharges of the rivers Rhine and Meuse. Disaster research has shown that real disaster experience influences the motivation to cope with future risks. Specifically, Zaalberg et al. (2009) showed that real flooding experiences increased residents intentions to evacuate from flood-prone areas compared to residents who lacked direct flooding experiences. We focus on multi-sensory interactive 3D technology to mimic real flooding experiences and consecutive coping responses. Our research objective was to investigate whether 3D technology influences coping strategies to deal with future flooding risks. A lab experiment was conducted in which participants were exposed to a simulated dike breach and consequent flooding of their virtual house. We manipulated the qualities of the medium through which the simulated risk was presented; multimodal (i.e., visual and auditory) sensory stimulation using an interactive 3D simulation versus non-interactive film or slide simulations. We tested the hypothesis that a multi-sensory interactive 3D simulation influences coping strategies compared to non-interactive simulations. A multiple regression analysis showed that the motivation to evacuate from the virtual polder landscape, and to buy flood insurance to protect oneself in the real world was stronger in the multi-sensory interactive 3D simulation compared to the non-interactive slide simulation. Mediation analyses revealed that this medium effect was mediated by the presence subdimensions spatialness and involvement, respectively. Increased motivation was due to increased spatialness and involvement. Implications to use high-end flood simulations in a virtual environment to communicate flooding risks and coping strategies to threatened residents will be discussed.

M4-D.3  15:30  Citizens’ perceptions of flood hazard adjustments: An application of the Protective Action Decision Model. Terpstra T, Lindell MK*; T Terpstra, University of Twente; MK Lindell, Texas A&M University   mlindell@tamu.edu Abstract: This paper addresses the attributes that may underlie people’s attitudes towards flood hazard adjustments in Europe, by applying the Protective Action Decision Model. The data, collected from randomly selected residents from two flood prone areas in the Netherlands (n=1115), supported the construct validity of PADM’s hazard-related attributes (perceived efficacy for protecting persons, property, and utility for other purposes) and resource-related attributes (requirements for cost, knowledge/skill, time/effort, cooperation from others).We tested a path model comprising five hypotheses to explain citizens’ hazard adjustment adoption intentions. The model included the hazard adjustment attributes, attribute importance, risk perceptions, risk area, and demographic characteristics. First, correlation analysis indicated that the hazard-related attributes were positively correlated with adoption intentions, but rejected the hypothesis that resource requirements would show negative correlations. Second, to improve the predictive validity of the attributes we examined whether attribute importance moderated the effect of the attributes on adoption intentions. Although the results indicated that the hazard-related attributes were regarded as more important than the resource requirements, moderated regression analysis failed to detect substantial interaction effects. Third, as predicted, risk perception was positively correlated to adoption intentions but explained less variance than did the hazard-related attributes. Fourth, of the demographic variables, only female gender was correlated with risk perceptions and the hazard adjustment attributes. Finally, results indicated that there were differences in risk perception between the two risk areas. Directions for further research and practical implications are discussed.

M4-D.4  15:30  Exploring risk messages and messengers in the National Park System . Rickard LN*, Newman S, McComas K; Cornell University, National Park Service, Cornell University   lnr3@cornell.edu Abstract: Each year, millions of people visit U.S. National Parks, where they face a range of hazards that can result in serious injury or fatality. Data reported from the National Park Service (NPS) indicate that on average three visitors die in parks every week due to unintentional injuries and an average of 14 people are seriously injured daily. Besides engineering controls (e.g., road maintenance) and law enforcement, NPS also utilizes educational programs, brochures, signs, and Internet to communicate risks. Unfortunately, limited research has examined the effectiveness of the channels or message format of this “formal” risk communication. Moreover, no known studies have targeted the ubiquitous, unscripted interactions that occur between visitors and NPS staff (“informal” risk communication). Because these encounters may involve unofficial messengers (e.g., bus drivers or concession workers), they allow us to examine what previous research has designated “accidental risk communicators” (ARCs): individuals who relay risk information to public audiences, though often outside of their job description. Previous research argued that studying ARCs is critical, as the public’s risk information comes not only from “officials” or scripted interventions, but also from less formally-recognized sources. This study advances this research by asking the following: During formal and informal interactions, how do park staff relay risk information to the public? What do visitors take away from these interactions, and how might they draw on them to form risk perceptions and make behavioral decisions? To answer these questions, this study explores the nature and influence of formal and informal risk communication as it unfolds between park visitors and staff at Mt. Rainier National Park, using in-depth interviews, as well as participant observation with park staff. Conclusions present recommendations for NPS on presenting risk-based messages in formal and informal contexts, as well as forward our understanding of formal and informal risk communication.

M4-D.5  15:30  Determinants of publics’ worry of an imminent rockslide in Norway – What are the implications for communicating with the publics? Rod SK*; Norwegian University of Science and Technology   k-rod@online.no Abstract: On the west coast of Norway, about 3000 people are currently living in a danger zone with the threat of a major rockslide of 1,4 – 2,4 billion cubic feet, which may fall into the fjord below and cause a tsunami. The geologists estimate the annual probability for a rockslide to be 1/300 to 1/100. In other words, the rockslide is likely to happen within the next 100 to 300 years. The rockslide site, Åknes is among the sites in Western Europe with highest severity potential. Waves estimated to 30 yards high will hit the communities along the fjord. A research project has been initiated to provide answers to various questions related to living with such risk. This presentation will emphasize the variables that contribute to predict the publics’ worries about the risk, and a model that may enhance the communication between the experts and the publics. In the same geographical area, a similar natural disaster happened in 1934, which caused the deaths of 40 people. In the bivariate and multivariate analyses to be presented, subgroups within the population will be contrasted: for example publics who live in communities with previous disaster history and those who do not, publics with and without children who live at sea level (in the danger zones), etc. Moreover, psychosocial data, personality issues, self efficacy, and locus of control will be studied to explore the variables that cause publics to worry. An anonymous questionnaire survey was distributed to all 875 people above 18 years who live in the four most threatened communities. A total of 375 questionnaires were returned (a response rate of 43%).

M4-D.6  15:30  Promoting precautionary behavior through information-based policies: The case of Berkeley’s Soft-Story Engineering Study Ordinance. Rabinovici SJ*; University of California, Berkeley   srabinovici@berkeley.edu Abstract: In 2005, the Berkeley City Council established an Inventory of Potentially Hazardous Buildings due to a Soft, Weak, or Open-Front first story (SWOF). SWOFs are known to have a high risk of collapse in or being uninhabitable after major earthquakes. The law required owners of the 317 identified residential SWOF buildings with five or more units to: (1) obtain an engineering study within two years from date of notification, and (2) inform tenants and users that the building poses a significant earthquake hazard. This research summarizes findings from an in-depth evaluation of the law’s implementation and effects on tenants, owners, mitigation service providers, and the overall seismic safety of Berkeley’s multi-unit housing stock. In particular, variations in response to this innovative policy approach are used to gain insight into the decision processes of building owners related to investing in mitigation. The data show that as of October 2008, 22 of the 110 owners that complied with the law also initiated retrofits of their buildings even though the law did not require this step. This is triple the number of SWOF retrofits conducted in Berkeley between 2001 and 2005. Additionally, retrofits initiated after the law involved buildings with significantly more units and more expensive retrofit work per unit. Another 160 owners, however, did not complete one or both requirements during the initial compliance window, despite the possibility of a $5,000 per day fine. This suggests that information costs remain a major obstacle to precautionary behavior even when substantial legal and financial consequences are at stake. The Berkeley case also sheds light on the relevance of behavior-stage theories of precautionary behavior to designing new policies and risk communication messages to influence beliefs and behavior towards hidden, latent hazards. Future research on SWOF policies in the San Francisco Bay Area will explore additional factors such as affect-driven appraisals and social cognitions that can moderate the motivational power of threat information.

M4-D.7  15:30  Seismic risk perception and socio-economic vulnerability at the Nonoalco-Tlatelolco housing complex , Mexico City, Mexico. Novelo-Casanova DA*, Antonio-Nakamura YA, Valdes-Perez V, Pineda-Loperena G; INSTITUTO DE GEOFISICA, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO; FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS POLÍTICAS Y SOCIALES, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO   dnovelo@geofisica.unam.mx Abstract: During the 19 September, 1985, Mexico, earthquake (Ms= 8.1), one of the most devastated zones in Mexico City was the Nonoalco-Tlatelolco housing complex (NTHC). Out of the 31 buildings in NTHC, 11 of them were demolished and 18 were moderate damaged as a consequence of this earthquake. More than 10 000 deaths were reported in the country. Here, we determine the seismic risk perception and the socio-economic vulnerability of the people living in NTHC 23 years after this seismic event. From field surveys and statistical analysis, we evaluate the socio-economic conditions that make vulnerable the NTHC community to seismic hazards. We assess: 1) the seismic risk perception; 2) the social organization in case of a major disaster; and 3) the economical conditions for disaster’s resilience. The evaluation of the seismic risk perception indicates that the community considers: 1) that disasters are social consequences; 2) they live in permanent risk due to a possible earthquake in the near future; 3) there is a high probability of a disaster similar to the one occurred in 1985. Our social analysis demonstrates that: 1) they are not prepared or organized to mitigate the impact of a future earthquake; 2) in general, the community lacks of interest to create a plan of action. The economical vulnerability assessment establishes that: 1) most families have salaries just sufficient for daily living expenses but not to face emergency situations; 2) bank savings are very limited to most families; 3) about half of the population does not have the Mexican government’s health service. These results indicate that at present, the community of NHTC has socio-economic vulnerability between moderate and high in the case of the occurrence of a seismic event similar to the 1985 earthquake.

[back to schedule]