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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2009

Risk Analysis: The Evolution of a Science

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

Identifying, Assessing, Managing, and Minimizing Risks from Emerging Contaminants Sponsored by DARSG

Room: Fells Point   10:30 AM-Noon

Chair(s): Steve Gibb

M2-G.1  10:30  Managing EC Risks: Using EC Assessments to Target Risk Management Options. Cunniff SE, Yaroschak PJ*; Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense; Department of Defense

Abstract: The new Chemical and Materials Risk Management office focuses on protecting people and readiness by managing risks from emerging contaminants and known hazardous materials used by the Department of Defense (DoD). Its Scan – Watch – Action Process first identifies chemicals of interest to DoD, then assesses the environmental, safety, health and mission risks associated with likely regulatory shifts, and finally develops options to best manage the highest risks. Development of risk management options involves careful consideration of the technical feasibility, costs and benefits, payback period, likelihood of acceptance and implementation, and identification of an “owner”. After considerable evaluation and vetting, risk management options are presented to an enterprise board for endorsement. Numerous risk management measures have been developed, approved, and are underway. Engineered nanomaterials, perchlorate, RDX, hexavalent chromium, beryllium, and naphthalene are among the chemicals for which DoD has taken risk management actions in advance of foreseen shifts in regulation. This presentation will cover current efforts to manage chemical-specific risks. Additionally, a few broader (i.e., not chemical specific) efforts by the Department to manage its chemical and material risks will also be highlighted.

M2-G.2  10:50  Scanning the Universe for Emerging Contaminants and What Happens Next. Hutchens SL*; Department of Defense

Abstract: In 2004, the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Installations and Environment began an emerging contaminants initiative. This has grown into the Chemical Material Risk Management Directorate whose Emerging Contaminant program mission is to identify emerging contaminants and proactively enable a fully informed, risk based investment decision process that protects health and Department of Defense (DoD) operational capabilities. The Chemical Material Risk Management definition of an Emerging Contaminant is: a chemical or material that has pathways to enter the environment and presents potential unacceptable human health or environmental risks, and either does not have regulatory peer-reviewed human health standards or the regulatory standards are evolving due to science, detection capabilities, or new pathways. This talk will give an overview of the first two steps in the DoD’s Scan, Watch, and Action process. The first step in identifying an emerging contaminant is to conduct scanning to stay abreast of activities pertaining to chemicals/materials. This is done by searching 80 electronic sources and nine hard copy publications. Due to the frequency of updates this results in over 500 reviews per month. In addition, personal contacts with subject matter experts also result in the positive scanning hits. A monthly newsletter, Emerging Contaminants in the News, is the result of the scanning process. The second step of the process is screening the potential emerging contaminant for DoD interest. The purpose of this step is to eliminate emerging contaminant candidates from further analysis, recommend priority candidates for more detailed analysis, and to identify potential issues associated with the emerging contaminant. The possible outcomes from this step are 1) no further action, 2) continue scanning, 3) a decision paper for the Emerging Contaminants Steering Committee for possible addition to the Emerging Contaminants Watch List.

M2-G.3  11:10  Assessing Risks from Emerging Contaminants: Using Expert Elicitation and Group Decisions. Rak A*, Glaccum W, Pitrat T; Noblis, Falls Church, VA; US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD

Abstract: The determination of potential future risks to the Department of Defense from emerging contaminants is a complex process that lends itself to the use of expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is a process by which the judgment of experts is used to quantify some uncertain quantity, relationship, parameter, or event. To assist in the identification of future risks, the Department uses multiple subject matter experts to help quantify the likelihood and the severity of potential impacts. The input of the subject matter experts is used to quantify not only the likelihood and severity of the potential events but also to capture the SMEs’ confidence in those estimates. Subject matter experts are sought from both inside and outside of the Department on five distinct areas of the Department’s operations: 1) Environmental Safety and Health, 2) Readiness and Training, 3) Operation and Maintenance, 4) Early Acquisitions Research and Development; and 5) Site Investigation and Clean up. This presentation will provide an overview of the elicitation process and the results of several elicitation sessions with subject matter experts for a range of emerging contaminants.

M2-G.4  11:30  Minimizing Future Risks - Chemical, Physical & Toxicity Criteria for DoD Acquisiton Programs. Yaroschak PJ*; Department of Defense

Abstract: The Department of Defense (DoD) has general policies for identifying, assessing, and mitigating hazards related to the development, design, and acquisition of new systems. However, detailed guidance is lacking on specifically what kind of information program managers should have to assess life cycle risks and when in the acquisition cycle this information should be available. DoD’s Chemical & Material Risk Management Directorate conducted a benchmarking study of global practices related to the capture of information needed to assess risks. The Directorate has now developed a set of tables with physical, chemical, and toxicity information needs. These needs are being overlaid on the DoD acquisition process milestones and are being tied to “technology readiness levels”. This presentation will describe the risk assessment information requirements and how the requirements will be integrated into the DoD acquisition process.

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