SRA Logo (print)

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2008

Risk Analysis: the Science and the Art

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations


.0    Environmental safety ranking framework for surfactants in personal care products (PCPs). Thakali S*, Sharma M, Verslycke T; Gradient Corporation

Abstract: Personal care products (PCPs) companies are increasingly implementing product safety strategies to proactively reduce the environmental impact of their products. Pro-active strategies for making ingredient choices based on environmental safety considerations are being developed under a myriad of \\\\\\\'eco-schemes.\\\\\\\' Existing eco-schemes generally focus on the intrinsic properties (e.g., acute aquatic toxicity and biodegradability) of ingredients in a product without considering their expected environmental fate and effects. Established regulatory frameworks for product/ingredient registration and evaluation are generally based on an evaluation of the hazard quotient, the ratio between the predicted environmental concentration (which is dependent on an ingredient\\\\\\\'s use volume) and the predicted environmental effects concentration. We developed an environmental ranking framework for 38 widely used PCP surfactant ingredients that considers both their intrinsic properties and their environmental risk, and that could serve as a useful tool for selecting \\\\\\"eco-friendly\\\\\\" ingredients during PCP development.

.0    A Probabilistic Cancer Risk Assessment Model of 4-(Methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone in Smokeless Tobacco. Naufal ZS*, Kathman SJ, Wilson CL; Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; RJ Reynolds Tobacco Co., Winston-Salem, NC 27102

Abstract: The compound 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is found in tobacco products at varying levels. This report describes a probabilistic lung and pancreatic cancer risk assessment model of NNK in two categories of commercially available smokeless tobacco (ST) products, moist snuff and snus. The concentration of NNK as well as moisture content varied considerably between products tested. Distributions incorporated in the model included: NNK moisture-adjusted concentration (built from quantitative chemical analysis data collected in triplicate for each product), daily ST consumption (based on market surveys and the peer-reviewed literature), frequency of use and body weight (based on data from the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys) and duration of use (based on U.S. Census Bureau life expectancy data). A distribution of NNK oral cancer slope factors was also used in the risk model. Risk characterization by Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the median lifetime lung cancer risk estimate was 3.84 x 10-4 for snus products and 1.43 x 10-3 for moist snuff. The median lifetime pancreatic cancer risk was lower for both product categories and was estimated to be 2.49 x 10-4 for snus and 8.91 x 10-4 for moist snuff. In both cases, the estimated risk presented by NNK was significantly lower for users of snus products compared with users of moist snuff. Sensitivity analyses indicated that overall, the concentration of NNK in the product and the daily ST consumption had the greatest impact on the risk outcome. By allowing the analyses of multiple observations of each parameter in the model, the probabilistic analysis described here provides a better informed conclusion on the cancer risk presented to ST users by NNK than deterministic methods. The resulting distribution of the risk outcome translates into greater confidence in health-based risk management decisions needed to guide the necessary actions for harm reduction.

.    International study of the effects of information about precautionary measures on risk perceptions of mobile telephony. Data and observations from the United Kingdom. Barnett J*; University of Surrey, United Kingdom

Abstract: There is growing interest in public understandings of precaution and public responses to precautionary action or advice (Wiedemann et al. 2007). This paper explores these issues in relation to the precautionary stance adopted in the UK around the regulation of mobile telecommunications. Previous research however suggests that a precautionary stance, rather than providing reassurance, instead triggers concern. This conclusion is supported by two different questionnaire surveys in the UK (Barnett et al 2006, 2008) although qualitative work (Timotijevic and Barnett, 2006) provides a more complex picture of risk perceptions regarding precautionary measures. The UK data of this present multi-country study provides an experimental test of these observations and is the first such test in the UK. The study looks at the effect of five different precautionary measures and frames these either positively or negatively. In this 5 x 2 between-subjects experimental design we report the effect of these manipulations upon the outcome variables of risk perception and trust. The study design also allows us to explore whether effects vary in relation to prior beliefs that are held. We discuss the possible explanations for the results and, importantly, explore possible implications of these results for risk communication and risk management strategies for the continued development of mobile telecommunications in the UK.

.1  14:00  DHS's Role in the Executive Order for Import Safety. Hampton E*; Homeland Security Institue

Abstract: Following the issuance of the July 2007 Executive Order for Import Safety, the Office of Health Affairs (OHA) was tasked as the lead component for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In this role, OHA coordinated 11 components in the analysis of all Departmental authorities, existing programs and recommendations for improvements. This effort addressed many Departmental challenges and faced many obstacles in the short execution time. Ultimately, OHA employed several processes to successfully meet all deadlines imposed within 60 days and also initiated several other efforts including furthering the International Trade and Data System (ITDS) planning process. The execution of this executive order is an outstanding example of Federal level coordination and joint issuance of recommendations.

.2  14:20  Reducing Risk to the Security of our Nation’s Food and Agriculture Supply. McGinn T*; Department of Homeland Security, Office of Health Affairs

Abstract: The overarching health aspects of import safety and implications for reducing risk and to the security of our Nation’s food and agriculture supply will be presented. A historical perspective as well as projections for continued challenges if import safety risk reduction practices are not systemically incorporated will be given.

.3  14:40  Import Safety at Our Nation's Border. Sauceda C*; Customs and Borders Protection

Abstract: An in-depth analysis of the unique challenges that Customs and Border Protection faces as an operational unit responsible for import safety risk reduction. Many recommendations will also be detailedthat CBP is solely responsible for implementing as well as the current status and challenges.

.4  15:00  Import Safety from an Enforcement Point of View: Commercial Fraud Initiatives . Hampton SL*; Department of Homeland Security, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement

Abstract: To combat the growing rise in the importation and distribution of harmful, foreign manufactured products, the Commercial Fraud and Intellectual Property Rights Unit (CF&IPRU) has implemented Operation Guardian (Guardian). Guardian combines the expertise of specific areas of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Office of Criminal Investigations (OCI), U.S. Postal Inspection Service (USPIS), the Department of Justice Computer Crimes & Intellectual Property Section (CCIPS) and the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) to target, interdict, and investigate substandard, tainted, and counterfeit products being imported into the United States that pose a health and safety risk to consumers. In December 2007, ICE, CBP, FDA, USPIS, CCIPS, and CPSC formed a Guardian Headquarters Working Group (WG), which conducted assessments to identify high risk commodities and specific ports of entry for enforcement activities. In addition, the WG created inspection and investigative standard operating procedures that will be employed over the course of Guardian enforcement actions and specific surge activity targeting known shipments, commodities, and/or identified smuggling organizations. The WG targets high risk commodities from all foreign sources.

[back to schedule]