Plenary Session Tuesday 8:30-10:00 AM
|
Assessing Hurricane Wind Risk in a Changing Climate. Kerry Emanuel
Abstract:All extent assessments of wind risk are based on statistical analyses of
historical storm data, perhaps modified by statistical relationships between
storms and large-scale environmental parameters. But in many applications,
the historical storm data base is too sparse and error-prone to serve as a
reliable basis for making good, quantitative assessments of wind risk. In
the developed world, risk rises very rapidly with wind speed, so that risk
assessment must necessarily concern itself with the tails of the wind
distribution functions, which are particularly poorly defined by sparse
historical data.
It is therefore of potentially great benefit to constrain wind risk using
knowledge of the physical system. I will describe a new method we have
developed to assess wind risk given only knowledge of the large-scale
climate provided by, e.g., reanalysis data sets or climate models and not
depending in any way on historical hurricane data except as a check on the
quality of the technique. With this technique, it is easy to generate
hundreds of thousands of physically modeled synthetic storms from which
robust risk assessments can be produced, and it is possible to do this for
any climate state, including projections made using global climate models. I
will discuss implications of such risk assessments for long-range planning.
|
The Three Things You Need to Know About TSUNAMIS. Eddie Bernard
Abstract: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed over 227,000 people and caused an estimated $10B in damage. In the wake of this catastrophe, there was an unprecedented outpouring of aid ($13.5B) from around the world to help alleviate the suffering. The power of the tsunami along with the compassionate response by the global society demanded that tsunami science focus on reducing the impact of the next tsunami. Tsunami science will be expected to develop risk assessment, warning guidance, and community preparedness standards, based on scientifically endorsed procedures, which assure the highest quality application of this science. The tsunami risk for individual communities can be assessed using historical and/or geological data or estimates derived from numerical simulations of probable earthquake activity of the area. Real-time warnings can be provided using state -of -the art tsunami detection, modeling, and dissemination technologies. Preparedness can be achieved through a comprehensive educational program and a community commitment to properly respond to the next tsunami, including appropriate responses to the ground shaking and redundant communications for receiving and responding to warning guidance. Together, the application of standards for risk assessment, warning guidance, and community preparedness will create and maintain a tsunami-resilient coastal community that will survive the next tsunami.
|
