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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2007
Risk 007: Agents of Analysis
Session Schedule & Abstracts
* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.
Common abbreviations
W2-G |
| Chair(s): Margaret MacDonell, Peter Grevatt |
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W2-G.1 10:30 Risk management decision-making in a high risk recreational activity: Lessons from mountaineering. Lee RC*, Cook LS; University of Calgary rclee@ucalgary.ca Abstract: Mountaineers can be viewed as 'edgeworkers' who manage risks in a voluntary activity that has the potential for serious injury or death. We maintain that the act of managing risks contributes to a sense of 'flow' or transcendence that is a major psychological motivation for mountaineers. We also maintain that decisions associated with engaging in mountaineering as an activity, choices of particular types of mountaineering, and decisions associated with the act of mountaineering itself can be conducted, implicitly or explicitly, within a rational multi-objective risk management framework. There are numerous risk-risk, risk-benefit, and benefit-cost tradeoffs throughout this risk management process. Furthermore, the risk management process is dynamic on a number of different levels. This rational process must be conducted within a context of uncertainty and fear, balanced with the sense of flow, and survival is often at stake. Based on a review of the peer-reviewed, mountaineering association, and popular mountaineering literature, interviews with mountaineers and professional guides, and decades of personal experience, we were unable to find any explicit exploration of dynamic multi-objective risk management in voluntary, recreational risky activities. The psychology of decision-making in this context is also largely unexplored. Thus, we have developed a qualitative framework, based on Hammond, Raiffa, and Keeney's PrOACT framework, that helps elucidate and inform the risk management decision-making processes associated with mountaineering. We illustrate the framework using a case study of one of the authors' climbs (Mt. Robson in Canada). Our framework may help mountaineers and society understand the psychology and tradeoffs associated with this activity, and may be useful for risk management of other types of risky recreational activities (Lee RC, Cook LS. Risk management decision-making in a high risk recreational activity: Lessons from mountaineering. The Psychology of Decision Making. Nova Science Publishers [in press]) |
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W2-G.2 10:20 Risk Analysis of Nondeterministic GeoHazards. Klose CK*; Columbia University christian@cdklose.com Abstract: A new approach of possibilistic risk analyses for geohazards is presented. The methodology was applied to evaluate health risks of human individuals exposed to toxic gas concentrations in space and over time (e.g., extreme events). The approach is based on fuzzy set theory, which basically explains health risks semantically by words rather than by numbers. Advantages of this methodology are, first, risk levels can be still estimated even when limited or no statistical information is available (extreme events), e.g., high gas concentrations or long exposure times. Second, experts, non-experts, decision makers or the public are able to understand and communicate risk degrees by words without using numbers. Finally, practical results of this methodology are presented for SO2-gas concentrations on Vulcano Island of Sicily (Italy), where intense volcanic degassing has been remaining since the last eruption of the Fossa crater in 1888 – 1890 and where approximately 500 permanent residents live and 15,000 tourists visit during the summer time. Human health risks were determined for several concentration-time-scenarios. The assessment has shown that SO2-gas concentrations in many parts of Vulcano Island go beyond the proclaimed alert threshold of the European Union and the World Health Organization. |
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W2-G.3 10:40 Multi-objective network optimization method for efficient allocation of emergency assistance vehicles: An extreme event analysis. Dickey BD*, Santos JR; University of Virginia bdd8c@virginia.edu Abstract: This paper develops a methodology for analyzing the trade-offs among multi-objective solutions using network modeling. This application of the Multi-Objective Network Optimization (MONO) method compares the expected (mean) and conditional expected (extreme) values derived from probability distributions of risk measures. By considering not only the mean value of a distribution but also the expected value in the case of an extreme event, decision-makers will have a more comprehensive understanding of all possible consequences. In network modeling, consecutive arc values, which can be represented by distributions, must be combined to determine the total “cost” of a path. In order to precisely calculate the conditional expected values, such multiple distributions can be convolved using Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis, such as a modification of the Hurwitz rule, is performed on mean and extreme values to determine scenario-specific optimal solutions. The MONO method can be applied whenever multiple options exist with uncertain parameters. One such application is the Safety Service Patrol (SSP) deployment problem, which involves minimizing the response of emergency assistance vehicles from various dispatch headquarters. The “golden hour” in incident response is critical for managing traffic conditions and ensuring the safety of those involved in roadway accidents. Since the travel time from the dispatch headquarters to the incident varies, decision-makers must consider the response time during average and irregular traffic conditions. By evaluating the trade-offs between expected and conditional expected values, the overall efficiency of assistance vehicles can be improved. |
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W2-G.4 11:00 Monitoring and Regulating The Transportation Of Dangerous Goods Using Risk Analysis. Provencher M*; Transport Canada provema@tc.gc.ca Abstract: Each year products defined as dangerous goods are transported across Canada by road, rail, water and air. These shipments range from industrial chemicals to manufactured goods and, while indispensable to our modern way of life, they can pose a threat to life, property and the environment if not handled safely. The Transport Dangerous Goods (TDG) Directorate, Transport Canada, serves as the major source of regulatory development, information and guidance on dangerous goods transport. Examples of the work addressed in the area of risk analysis at TDG will be provided, such as a study on the road transport of blasting explosives to determine which is safer, small or large quantities, and a study of severity indices to place accidents in perspective. To measure the compliance with the TDG Regulations and do so objectively, a random inspection program has recently been introduced. Besides providing the expected measurements, some side benefits of this inspection program were found. |
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