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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2007

Risk 007: Agents of Analysis

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

T2-I Real Time & Deliberative Decisions-making and Risk Assessment Room: 207B   10:30 AM - Noon

Chair(s): Elizabeth Ferguson

T2-I.1  10:30  Convergence Towards Integrated Risk Management: Results from the European SHAPE-RISK Project and other Initiatives. BOLVIN C, FARRET R, SALVI O*; INERIS   olivier.salvi@ineris.fr Abstract: SHAPE-RISK is the acronym for “SHAring exPErience on RISK management to Design future Industrial Systems”. It is a 3-years project co-financed by the European Commission within the 6th Framework programme. This project gathers 19 organisations from 12 countries, coordinated by INERIS, a French center of expertise in environmental safety. SHAPE-RISK aims at optimising the efficiency of integrated risk management in the context of the sustainable development of the European industry. Risk management covers the fields of following European framework directives: SEVESO, IPPC, Safety and Health of Workers (89/391) and ATEX. The innovation brought by SHAPE-RISK is to have a consolidated collection of knowledge, data, methods and tools related to all the above-listed dimensions of risk management. The key recommendation issued by SHAPE-RISK is to move towards an integrated Risk Management in the European process industry. In particular, SHAPE-RISK provides: . Recommendations about the regulatory framework in order to avoid overlaps and conflicts between directives, and in order to harmonise risk-based inspections by authorities . Recommendations about technical tools used for example to assess the various risks (HSSE) not separately but in a common approach . Recommendations for the monitoring of the performance of the management system . Recommendations about human and organisational aspects. This paper presents SHAPE-RISK results and points out some issues related to integrated risk assessment and management, for all kinds of technical risks – namely risks for man and for environment, on-site and off-site risks, accidental risks and continuous or long-terms risks. The interactions and overlaps between the present European regulatory framework clearly suggests an improvement through more integrated regulations and standarts, and reinforces the interest of Industry in using more efficient integrated tools, both for risk assessment and risk management.

T2-I.2  10:50  Real-Time Decisions: Background Counts for Rapid and Informed Decisions. Ferguson E*, Linkov I; US Army Corps of Engineers and Intertox, Inc.   ilinkov@intertox.com Abstract: Decisions have to be made in real-time from an individual’s mundane daily activities to an emergency response on an individual to a population scale. That which allows us to make these rapid decisions in such a way that the outcome is favorable depends significantly on the prior preparation. Preparation may include repetitive positively reinforced behavior for daily activities or larger scale emergency response decisions such preparation may include scenario or simulation training, decision analysis preparations and other such activities. Use of all state of the art preparation tools appears to increase the potential for favorable outcome. This presentation will provide an overview of the state of the art decision tools for rapid decision-making in an overview of a recent NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the topic.

T2-I.3  11:10  Ecological Risk Assessment as the Basis for Rapid versus Deliberate Decision Analysis. Cormier S*, Kapustka L, Linkov I; US EPA, Golder and Associates, Intertox Inc.   ilinkov@intertox.com Abstract: The principles of ecological risk assessment and decision analysis are unchanged regardless of the type of problems encountered by environmental assessors and decision makers. However, in practice, they are influenced by temporal and spatial scales frame in which the decisions must be made. Some decisions, such as those made within a rapidly evolving crisis require extensive pre-planning and training to prepare decision makers so that they may react instinctively in a timely fashion. Other decisions in which the timing of the decision is less critical can occur in a more deliberative, consensus manner. Clearly, a continuum exists across a range of situations. We propose that rapid and deliberative risk assessment and decision analysis can be improved by recognizing the similarities and differences encountered in these situations and optimizing strategies accordingly. Although, both types of decision are based on risk assessment that inform decision makers of their options and the potential outcomes of the choices before them, there are differences in the range of options and the type of outcomes that would be considered acceptable. For example during problem formulation, the rapid form required for a crisis situation focuses on a “triage” level of assessment endpoints such as human life, loss of property or irreplaceable environmental services and resources. The more deliberative type includes the same issues but may include longer term outcomes, aesthetics and opportunities to achieve multiple goals. Although risk assessments and decision analysis ideally are science-based, decisions about what to do are influenced by political, economic, and social drivers that may not be optimal for long term ecological goals or for the majority of people impacted by the decision. This presentation begins a dialogue on aspects of ecological risk assessment and decision analysis that apply to these two conditions encountered in environmental management, namely the rapid versus more deliberative process.

T2-I.4  11:30  Effective risk based disaster management. Renfroe NA*, Smith JL; Corporation   nrenfroe@ara.com Abstract: Risk management is a critical component of a comprehensive disaster management program for any organization. Disaster management consists of three phases: preparedness, response and recovery. The preparedness phase includes performing risk assessments to determine plausible scenarios which require risk mitigation. The response phase implements the evacuation and/or shelter-in-place plans developed during the preparedness phase. This presentation will outline new tools and models which can be utilized to address risk assessments, disaster management planning and evacuation modeling. Also included in the presentation will be an overview of some of the latest technologies available to mitigate hazards from both natural and man-made threats. These tools and technologies are leading the way when it comes to application of sound multi-hazard risk mitigation. The information presented will be of keen interest to architects, engineers, facility owners, facility managers, risk managers, security managers, emergency managers, and anyone who has responsibility for preparedness, response and/or recovery from an emergency or disaster event.

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