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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2007

Risk 007: Agents of Analysis

Session Schedule & Abstracts

* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations

M4-F Toward Effective Risk Communication Room: 206A   4:00 - 5:40 PM

Chair(s): Cliff Scherer

M4-F.1  16:00  The effect of communication formats on risk perception depending on numeracy skills . Keller C*, Siegrist M; ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions   ckeller@ethz.ch Abstract: The effect of risk communication formats on risk perception has been mostly examined utilizing samples of students, who are typically better skilled than the average population. It is not known whether the results of these studies also apply to the general population. Utilizing a representative sample of the general population in the first study, we examined the understanding of numerical information presented in either a frequency or probability format. As past research has indicated, participants tended to solve numerical tasks better when it was expressed as frequencies rather than as probabilities. However, a majority of participants did not comprehend either format. In the second study, we examined the effect of various communication formats (numerical format, pictogram and the Paling Perspective Scale) on risk perception. The Paling Perspective Scale is a graphical representation of risks covering different orders of magnitudes. Results revealed a three-way interaction between format, numeracy skills and risk level. Participants with high numeracy skills clearly distinguished between low and high risk when the information was presented utilizing the Paling Perspective Scale but not when the numerical format or the pictogram were used. Participants with low numeracy skills did not distinguish between low and high risk in any format. This applies for low risk probabilities (Probability of having a child with Down Syndrome) as well as for high risk probabilities (Probability of having cancer of the colon). Based on our research, we can conclude that the general population has difficulties in comprehending numerical and graphical risk communication formats, whereas people with high numeracy skills comprehend the Paling Perspective Scale format, but not the other formats. Practical implications for risk communication are discussed.

M4-F.2  16:20  The impact of stories on risk perception: Evidence from three experimental studies. Wiedemann P*, Schuetz H; MUT-INB, Research Center Juelich   p.wiedemann@fz-juelich.de Abstract: The paper will give an overview of our research into the story model of risk perception. It outlines 3 different experimental studies recently conducted by our research team. The first experiment investigates how stories as contextual frames of risks influence the intuitive risk perceptions. The results suggest a robust effect: An outrage story amplifies risk perceptions in contrast to a leniency story. The second experiment investigated the influence of separate versus joint risk appraisal following the seminal work of Hsee (1996). In a mixed between / within subject design we analyzed whether the evaluability hypotheses of Hsee helps to explain story effects on risk perception. The results of his experiment suggest that the story effects remain stable under both conditions, i.e. the separate as well as the joint risk appraisal. The third experiment tested how the peripheral versus central information processing (Chen & Chaiken 1999) will alter story effects on risk perception. We found that under both conditions the story effects are the same: The leniency story decrease and the outrage story increase risk perception. Furthermore, the outrage story produces a greater effect as the leniency story compared with the “neutral” story as a benchmark. Chen, S. & Chaiken, Sh. (1999): The heuristic-systematic model in its broader context. In: Sh. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.) Dual-Process Theories in Social Psychology. New York: Guilford Press, 73-96. Hsee, C. K. (1996). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 247-257 Wiedemann, P. M.; Clauberg, M.; Schütz, H. (2003): Understanding amplification of complex risk issues: the risk story model applied to the EMF-case. The Social Amplification of Risk / eds.: N. Pidgeon, R.E. Kasperson, P. Slovic. - Cambridge, University Press, 286 – 305.

M4-F.3  16:40  Food safety in the domestic environment: The effect of consumer risk information on human disease risks. Nauta MJ*, Fischer ARH, Van Asselt ED, De Jong AEI, Frewer LJ, De Jonge R; RIVM, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands   maarten.nauta@rivm.nl Abstract: The improvement of food safety in the domestic environment requires a transdisciplinary approach, involving interaction between both the social and natural sciences. This approach is applied in a study on risks associated with Campylobacter on broiler meat. First, some web-based information interventions based on negative emotions were designed and tested on participant motivation and intentions to cook more safely. Based on these self-reported measures, the intervention supported by the emotion ‘disgust’ was selected as the most promising information intervention. Its effect on microbial cross contamination was tested by recruiting a set of participants, who prepared a salad with fresh chicken breast fillet that carried a known amount of tracer bacteria. The amount of tracer that could be recovered from the salad was used as a measure of transfer and survival of Campylobacter during food preparation. This finding was introduced into an existing quantitative microbiological risk assessment model on Campylobacter on broiler meat, to assess the effect of the information intervention both at the level of exposure and the level of human disease risk. We showed that the information intervention supported by the emotion ‘disgust’ alone had no measurable effect on the health risk. However, when a behavioral cue is embedded within the instruction for the salad preparation, the risk decreased sharply. It is shown that a transdisciplinary approach, including research on risk perception, microbiology and risk assessment, is successful in evaluating the efficacy of an information campaign on food hygiene in terms of human health risks. The approach strengthens the existing disciplines and offers a novel tool for science-based risk management in the area of food safety.

M4-F.4  17:00  Reducing risks to the Anishinaabe from methylmercury: A GIS-based fish consumption advisory program for walleye. DEWEESE AD*, KMIECIK N, FORAN JA; GREAT LAKES INDIAN FISH AND WILDLIFE COMMISSION   adeweese@glifwc.org Abstract: Since 1989, the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has collected data on mercury concentrations in walleye from lakes in the 1837 and 1842 treaty-ceded lands of northern Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Beginning in 1996, GLIFWC used these data to produce color-coded, GIS-based consumption advisory maps providing lake-specific information on the amount of methylmercury in walleye. GLIFWC received an EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) grant in 2003 to enhance and evaluate its efforts to reduce risks associated with subsistence based consumption of methylmercury contaminated walleye. As part of this grant, GLIFWC’s maps were revised to ensure that they were culturally-sensitive and that they adequately protected the health of tribal members. Tribal leaders, health care providers, fish harvesters, children, and elders were trained in the use of the maps. Tribal health care providers were asked to train mothers with young children and women of childbearing age through tribal health programs. The efficacy of these interventions was evaluated through a series of targeted surveys designed to document changes in knowledge and behavior after implementation of the program. A description of the advisory program and results of the surveys will be presented.

M4-F.5  17:20  A Study of the Impact of California’s Proposition 65 Warnings on Safety Related Awareness and Behaviors . Huntley-Fenner G, Sala J*, Wood C; Exponent   ghuntley-fenner@exponent.com Abstract: In 1986, California voters passed Proposition 65 enacting that state's groundbreaking environmental labeling law that required that state health officials establish and maintain a list of carcinogens and reproductive toxins. The law also requires some employers to post warning signs about those chemicals, such as “WARNING. Chemicals Known to the State of California to Cause Cancer, Birth Defects or Other Reproductive Harm May be Present on these Premises”. The intent of the referendum was that Californians should be informed of potential risks and prepare “To protect themselves and the water they drink against chemicals that cause cancer, birth defects, or other reproductive harm.” There has been no research on the impact on consumers of the widespread presence of these risk communications posted on or within buildings. In the present study, 108 adults who live in California were surveyed to determine their awareness, comprehension and their reported behavioral response to such signs. Nearly every person surveyed had visited at least one store with a Proposition 65 sign posted, and half of the respondents had lived in California for more than 20 years. Nevertheless, nearly 40% failed to recall ever seeing such a sign. When shown a sample sign, comprehension of the text was high; however, for a majority of persons surveyed who had recalled seeing Proposition 65 signs previously, the presence of signs did not prompt changes in behavior (e.g., decision to enter a building, length of stay). Literature relating to general cognitive psychology, attention, and effectiveness of risk communication suggests that contributing factors to the lack of awareness and response include habituation to the warnings due to their ubiquity, the behavioral intentions and goals of person visiting a building, and an attenuation of perceived risk due to the contradiction between the warnings and their own experience.

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