W0.1 Planetary climate change and personal cancer treatments: Very different scales, but very similar decision analyses. Schneider SH*; Professor, Department of Biological Sciences and Senior Fellow, Stanford Center for Environment Science and Policy of the Institute for International Studies shs@stanford.edu
Abstract: Predicting future climate change and impacts is a complex systems science issue combining theory, observations and modeling into a subjective - though expert - set of scenarios or forecasts. Subjectivity is unavoidable about the future as there is no frequency data yet, though process knowledge allows credible projections in many cases. Similarly, with cancer, particularly for rarer diseases with little clinical trial or other sufficient statistical information, judgments must nonetheless be made based on existing knowledge of the risks of the disease, the risks of the treatments, and the risk aversion philosophy of the patient. Applications of decision analysis to both problems are remarkably similar even if the scales involved are as different as they could be: planetary vs. personal. The author's experiences in both these realms will be recounted and contrasted.
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W0.2 Public perceptions of uncertainty, the media, and risk decision-making. Dunwoody S*; Evjue Bascom Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Journalism and Mass Communication dunwoody@wisc.edu
Abstract: Uncertainty is a dominant feature of scientific knowledge, yet researchers exploring public understanding of science issues have focused much more on what individuals do know rather than on what they don't. This talk will explore how lay publics perceive uncertainty in risky environments, the role of media accounts in truncating or fostering those perceptions, and the challenges for risk analysts and managers in coping with them.
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