T4-H
Bounding dynamic risks for technological deployment: The case of carbon capture and sequestrationHomeland 4:00 PM
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| Chair(s): Elizabeth Wilson ewilson@umn.edu
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| Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) could potentially enable the drastic reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Yet, for this technology to fulfill its promise, it must be widely deployed within a complex world, embedded within financial, public perception, legal, siting, and compliance regimes. This session focuses on several facets affecting the risk profile for CCS and attempts to weave together an integrated perspective of key issues influencing new technology deployment. The session includes discussion of assessment and management of risks posed by CO2 storage. Speakers will explore the importance of abandoned wells for storage security and shows how risks from abandoned wells can be modeled, summarize ongoing work on CCS public perception and presents plans for future studies, and address the implications of different financial mechanisms used to ensure compliance and accountability and their appropriateness for CCS. Specifically, the advantages and limits of bonding are developed for a technology with a low probability of failure, but with long risk tail. Each of these unique perspectives must be addressed by society before CCS can be deployed. |
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T4-H.1 4:00 PM Assessing and managing the risks of CO2 storage. Keith DW*; University of Calgary keith@ucalgary.ca
Abstract: This paper provides a review of the risks of CO2 storage providing a systematic characterization of the potential hazards and a discussion of the constraints on our understanding of the probabilities of occurrence and an overview of the challenges in constructing systematic risk assessments for CO2 storage and review some of the more prominent efforts to construct end-to-end risk assessments. Abstract discussions of the risk of CO2 storage are of little value as the risks are strongly contingent on storage system design and on institutional and regulatory factors. This paper discusses the interface between risk assessment and risk management and engineering methods that may become available to manage and minimize the risks of CO2 storage projects.
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T4-H.2 4:20 PM Performance and risk assessment of well integrity in long-term CO2 geological storage. Frenette RF*, Aimard NA, Auge LA, Poupard OP, Tombari JT; Oxand richard.frenette@oxand.com
Abstract: In the context of the Kyoto protocol, an increasing number of oil and gas operators are becoming interested in long-term CO2 geological storage as an important component of future carbon emissions reduction strategies. Indeed, the fact that hydrocarbons were geologically sequestrated for millions of years holds the promise of similar potential for long-term (5000 yrs) CO2 storage in depleted reservoirs and deep saline aquifers. Yet, the risks associated with emerging technology must be evaluated and addressed before obtaining societal acceptance. The performance of confinement system rests in particular on the long-term behaviour of the wells. A risk assessment and management approach is thus required that integrates the stakes (equipment and production losses, health and safety issues, corporate and technology image, environment impacts), complex processes (multiphase flows, material degradation) and high levels of uncertainties. OXAND has developed a P&RTM (Performance and Risks) assessment and decision support method for the evaluation of risk levels, risk sources and optimized solutions. Based on our experience in material ageing, risk assessment, statistical family regrouping and probabilistic simulations of complex systems, this quantitative approach enables the full integration of uncertainties as part of risk estimations. By doing so, characterisation and monitoring actions are valued as efficient risk treatment actions, the same way well work-over, design improvement or emergency plans can be. Updating the P&R assessment with incoming data allows for an evolving vision of risk levels and appropriate actions. Thanks to our industrial partners, the approach is now successfully applied on existing wells, leading to recommendations for safer and more efficient design, maintenance and monitoring strategies. Examples of such results are presented.
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T4-H.3 4:40 PM Environmental bonds and the problem of long-term carbon sequestration. Gerard D, Wilson EJ*; Carnegie Mellon University, University of Minnesota dgerard@cmu.edu
Abstract: The potential to capture carbon from industrial sources and put it in long-term storage, known as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), is widely recognized as an option to reduce atmospheric carbon emissions. Specifically, CCS has the potential to provide emissions cuts sufficient to stabilize greenhouse gas levels, while still allowing for the continued use of fossil fuels. In addition, CCS is both technologically-feasible and commercially viable compared with alternatives with the same emissions profile. Although the concept appears to be solid from a technical perspective, initial public perceptions of the technology have been very unfavorable. Moreover, little attention has been paid to developing an understanding of the social and political institutional infrastructure necessary to implement CCS projects. In this paper we explore a particularly dicey issue - how to ensure adequate long-term monitoring and maintenance of the carbon sequestration sites. Bonding mechanisms have been suggested as a potential mechanism to reduce these problems (where bonding refers to financial instruments used to ensure regulatory or contractual commitments). Such mechanisms have been successfully applied in a number of settings (e.g., to ensure court appearances, completion of construction projects, and payment of taxes). The paper examines the use of bonding to address environmental problems and looks at its possible application to nascent CCS projects. We also present evidence on the use of bonding for other projects involving deep underground injection of materials for the purpose of long-term storage or disposal.
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T4-H.4 5:00 PM Exploring communication strategies for people's understandings of climate change consequences and actions. Aoyagi-Usui M*; National Institute for Environmental Studies aoyag@nies.go.jp
Abstract: This paper reports the results from our group interview survey about the public understanding of the climate change issue during mid-February, 2006, which included 6 groups from 20 to 60 years old (divided into three age grades), male and females (divided into two) in the Tokyo metropolitan area. We found that people understand the climate change issue as a result of or causes of destruction of the ozone layer. In every group, climate change was highly recognized - in every group two or three out of seven members referred to climate change as the most important environmental issue. But as for the mechanism or consequences of climate change, many people are mixed up with ozone layer issues, and heat island issues. This interpretation was widely observed in every group. More importantly, this misunderstanding implies disincentives for taking actions to reduce the climate change, such as saving energy in everyday life, or purchasing energy efficient appliances. This phenomenon was reported in early 1990's, but is still true today, so we think that we need to talk more with people about the cause and consequence links about the climate change.
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