M2-E
Advances in understanding the likely risks of global climate changeMaryland E 1:30 PM
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| Chair(s): Jane Leggett jaleggett@crs.loc.gov
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| Global climate change has sometimes been characterized as the most important environmental risk of the 21st Century. Rigorous assessment of the potential impacts of climate change and their likelihoods, however, has lagged behind estimates of the costs of mitigation. Recent advances in data availability and analytical methods are providing quantitative, even probabilistic, estimates of market and non-market risks of climate change. This session will present a set of cutting-edge risk analyses that provide new probabilistic estimates of selected risks of climate change, with an emphasis on ecological risks. It will also address some of the challenges of using risk information in public and private decision-making. |
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M2-E.1 1:30 PM The climate change risk assessment framework: Value-at-risk and multicriteria methods for decisions addressing incommensurate risks . Pepper W*, Leggett J; ICF International jaleggett@crs.loc.gov
Abstract: A new integrated assessment model, oriented toward policy decision support, provides probabilistic and internally consistent estimates of future human-driven climate change, its socio-economic drivers and impacts. This presentation will present results from the Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework, providing insights into the relative magnitudes of various impacts, and their interactions with human and ecological systems. It highlights the challenges of informing decisions that must address the incommensurate risks and benefits associated with climate change - decisions that will have to make trade-offs across different populations and across economic versus ecological systems.
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M2-E.2 1:50 PM Improving information for decision-makers on the benefits of climate policies: Lessons from OECD work. Corfee-Morlot J, Tirpak D, Yohe G*; Organisation for Cooperation and Development jan.corfee-morlot@noos.fr
Abstract: Information on the benefits of climate change policies has lagged behind analyses of the near-term costs, particularly of mitigation costs. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) tackled this challenge with an expert workshop that surveyed the state of the art. It recommended a research agenda to improve understanding of benefits of climate policies, with emphasis on scientific and impact assessment, as well as how to develop and use economic and avoided impact benefit information to assess the trade-offs implicit in any climate policy choices. Since then, the OECD has followed up on this recommendation with several analytical activities. This presentation will review what has been learned from the OECD's work, on continuing research needs, as well as on results from sectoral case studies.
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M2-E.3 2:10 PM CO2, climate change and risks to coral reefs: The combo model. Buddemeier RW*, Bohling GC, Zimmerman KM, Jokiel PJ; Kansas Geological Survey, Kansas Geological Survey, Kansas Geological Survey, Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology buddrw@kgs.ku.edu
Abstract: Dramatic incidents of coral reef "bleaching" and mortality have been documented around the world, and are frequently attributed to episodes of excessive heat, although multiple factors are undoubtedly at play. In addition, recent findings regarding the effects of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, strongly implicated in driving global climate change, indicate that resulting ocean acidity may also have profound effects on the viability of coral reef systems. A new, relatively simple but flexible tool is available for evaluating the potential effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on coral reef communities, and initial results will be presented for Hawaii and the Great Barrier Reef. The COMBO model is an analytical simulation model that combines climate change and CO2 projections from other models with ocean climate and coral reef data as well as judgment on the part of the expert user. It has the capability of probabilistic assessment of the effects of temperature variance, as well as the effects of long-term trends in CO2 and SST. The COMBO model is designed to be understandable and usable by the "ordinary" biologist or manager to develop and explore scenarios, either on the desktop or via a web-based version, that may assist in understanding likely impacts of alternative mitigation policies and considering management strategies. The approach is appropriate to the scales of climate and climate models - time intervals of multiple decades and spatial scales of hundreds of km (or greater), but generates response scenarios useful at the smaller scales associated with individual reefs.
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M2-E.4 2:30 PM Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in climate decision making. Morgan MG*; Carnegie Mellon University granger.morgan@andrew.cmu.edu
Abstract: This talk will describe a US Climate Change Science Program report that discusses: 1) Sources and types of uncertainty; 2) The importance of quantifying uncertainty; 3) Cognitive challenges in estimating uncertainty; 4) Methods for estimating uncertainty; 5) Analysis of, and with, uncertainty; 6) Communicating uncertainty; 7) Making decisions in the face of uncertainty. The report ends by providing some simple guidance for researchers on how to characterize and deal with uncertainty, which will be the primarily focus of this presentation.*
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