M0.1 If I look at the mass I will never act: Psychic numbing and genocide. Slovic P*; Decision Research pslovic@darkwing.uoregon.edu
Abstract: Most people are caring and will exert great effort to rescue individual victims whose needy plight comes to their attention. These same good people, however, often become numbly indifferent to the plight of individuals who are "one of many" in a much greater problem. Why does this occur? The answer to this question will help us answer a related question that is the topic of this paper: Why, over the past century, have good people repeatedly ignored mass murder and genocide? Every episode of mass murder is unique and raises unique obstacles to intervention. But the repetitiveness of such atrocities, ignored by powerful people and nations, and by the general public, calls for explanations that may reflect some fundamental deficiency in our humanity's deficiency that, once identified, might possibly be overcome.
|
M0.2 Seeing time: Exploring mental models of complex dynamic systems. Sterman JD*, Forrester JW; Professor of Management and Director, MIT System Dynamics Group jsterman@mit.edu
Abstract: Public attitudes about climate change reveal a contradiction. Most Americans believe climate change poses serious risks but also that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be deferred until there is greater evidence that climate change is harmful. Federal policymakers likewise argue we should wait and see whether climate change will cause economic harm before undertaking policies to reduce emissions. Such wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating substantial delays in the climate's response GHG emissions. I discuss experiments with highly educated adults showing widespread misunderstanding of the fundamental stock and flow relationships, including mass balance principles that lead to long response delays. Low public support for mitigation policies may arise from dynamically impoverished mental models rather than poor understanding of climatology, high discount rates, uncertainty, or common judgmental biases. I explore implications for education and communication between scientists, policymakers and the public.
|
