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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2006

Session Schedule & Abstracts


* Disclaimer: All presentations represent the views of the authors, and not the organizations that support their research. Please apply the standard disclaimer that any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in abstracts, posters, and presentations at the meeting are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any other organization or agency. Meeting attendees and authors should be aware that this disclaimer is intended to apply to all abstracts contained in this document. Authors who wish to emphasize this disclaimer should do so in their presentation or poster. In an effort to make the abstracts as concise as possible and easy for meeting participants to read, the abstracts have been formatted such that they exclude references to papers, affiliations, and/or funding sources. Authors who wish to provide attendees with this information should do so in their presentation or poster.

Common abbreviations


   



.0    Analytical risk assessment : general procedure modele. Gaudru hg*; NGO   info@sveurop.org

Abstract: Risk assessment encompass the systematic use of available information to determine the likehood of certain events occuring and the magnitude of their possible consequence. As a process, it is generally agreed upon that it includes different activities: a)identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of a threat; b) determining the existence and degree of vulnarability exposure to the threat; c) identifying the capacities and resources available; d) determining acceptable levels of risk. The analytical phases involved in risk assessment must include some the basic tasks for risk management. Identification of hazards constitutes the departing point for a risk assessment process. Both hazard and vulnerability/capacity assessments must be utilize formal procedures (monitoring, data processing, mapping and social surveys techniques). Risk analysis contitutes must be core stage of the whole risk assessment process by means of providing relatively objective and technical information from which levels of risks can be estmated. Howewer, it is clear acceptable levels of risks may vary according to the relative contribution of views on objective risk versus perceived risk, at the varius individual, community and institutional scales. The distinction between risk assessment and risk perception has important applications for disaster risk reductions. In some case, as in vulnerability/capacity assessment exercises, risk perception could be formally included in the assessment process, by incorporating people\\\\\\\'s own ideas and perceptions on the risks they are exposed to.

.0    An approach to evaluate and engineer systems for threat risk mitigation. Gorman BM*, Boon JE; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory   bryan.gorman@jhuapl.edu

Abstract: The emergence of asymmetric threats, whether terrorist or insurgent, suggests a need to reexamine analytic methods applied to the design of systems intended to mitigate threat risk. Emerging threats have shown ability to adapt strategies rapidly, suggesting that threat characterization must include an accounting for the responsiveness of threat intention to defensive measures. We examine policies of targeting and random selection within checkpoint inspection systems, such as those used for seagoing containers. Specifically, we account for the effects of the transparency of targeting rules on the threat’s strategy preferences and ultimately on the requisite balance of targeted and random inspections to achieve a desired deterrent effect or to limit risk. Static risk analysis fails in this case, because it does not take into account the effects of policy design on the threat’s strategy. We analyze inspection policy and process from the perspective of mathematical game theory. From this perspective we gain important insights into the role of targeting and are able to identify design factors that critically impact the balance between sunk cost and risk. We further extend the analysis by addressing the allocation of inspection resources over multiple checkpoints.

.0    Use of cancer epidemiology studies in acrylonitrile cancer assessment . Persad AS*, Scott CS, Kopylev L; National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC   persad.amanda@epa.gov

Abstract: Scores of studies of varying quality and design have evaluated the relationship between cancer and acrylonitrile exposure. The early occupational epidemiology studies on acrylonitrile and cancer consisted of small cohorts with limited follow-up periods and limited assessment of actual exposures. Elevated incidences and death from lung cancer and incidence of prostate cancer observed in the early studies were sufficiently consistent to suggest lung cancer and prostate cancer as a priori hypotheses for other more recent epidemiologic studies. These newer studies increased statistical power by increasing the size of the study cohort. Periods of follow-up were longer, and exposure assessments were more sophisticated and included quantification of exposure. At least one study was able to obtain information on smoking habits. Small excess risks for lung and prostate cancer, as well as other cancer types, were identified in more recent studies. A weight of evidence approach, highlighting strengths and shortcomings of the individual studies, has been adopted for the examination of the body of evidence in the hazard identification step of the acrylonitrile cancer risk assessment. Finally, one of the recent cohort studies is used in the statistical modeling for dose-response between acrylonitrile exposure and cancer.

.0    Biotechnology, Industrial Agriculture, and the Risk Society. Knight AJ*; Michigan State University   knighta@msu.edu

Abstract: This paper examines whether the risk/reflexive society perspective can further our understanding of how risks are conceptualized by exploring how the risk/reflexive society perspective contributes to the understanding of perceptions of agricultural biotechnology applications. The thesis of the risk/reflexive society perspective is that industrial processes produce latent effects that cannot be solved through industrial means, primarily through science and technology, which lead to a society where risk anxiety, alleviation, and aversion dominate the public agenda. The rationale for choosing biotechnology is twofold: it is a technology in which both science and the public have little knowledge of the consequences associated with it, and the benefits and risks associated with biotechnology are highly controversial. This paper is divided into four main sections: an overview of the risk/reflexive society perspective; a meso-level analysis of debates surrounding biotechnology; an investigation of whether concepts associated with the risk/reflexive society affect support for agricultural biotechnology applications using data from a regional U.S. Southwest telephone survey (N=432); and a discussion of the results. The risk/reflexive society perspective aided in conceptualizing debates surrounding agricultural biotechnology applications. Proponents of biotechnology tend to promote arguments consistent with the industrial paradigm, whereas critics tend to espouse risk/reflexive society arguments. The survey findings were more difficult to interpret. Trust and items about industrial agriculture were significantly related to support for both plant and animal biotechnology applications. Perceived knowledge was only significantly related to plant applications, while perceived control and how foods are produced were not significantly related to support. As the debates surrounding biotechnology remain controversial and the populace remains relatively unengaged, these results portray a public that represents a spectrum of views along an industrial/risk continuum.

.0    The Health Physics Society Makes a Difference with Government, Media, and the Public. Classic K*, Dinger K, Roessler G; Health Physics Society   classic.kelly@mayo.edu

Abstract: The Health Physics Society (HPS) is composed of nearly 6,000 radiation safety specialists. Our activities include providing support to radiation safety professionals to ensure the safe and beneficial uses of radiation and radioactive materials, assisting in the development of standards and regulations, and communicating radiation safety information. Our primary mission is excellence in the science and practice of radiation safety. Radiation risks are often considered too technical and complicated to understand, thus the fear of radiation anywhere, at any time, continues to plague society. Three programs have been developed to further our practice regarding the communication of radiation safety information and the goal of fostering the use of sound science in public policy. These are the Government Relations (GR) Program, a Media Relations (MR) Program, and a publicly-available Ask The Experts (ATE) section on the HPS Web site. GR Program efforts are focused toward having legislation, regulations, and public policies based on current, sound science and good radiation safety practice. MR Program objectives include preparation of media reports that contain objective scientific information regarding high-quality radiation safety. Both programs work towards recognition of HPS by congressional and federal agency entities (for GR) and by media (for MR) as an independent, professional, and expert source of information on radiation sciences and radiation safety. The ATE section of the HPS Web site contains a vast amount of radiation safety information in the form of Frequently Asked Questions, Information Sheets, and Reference Sheets. However, the most popular function of this section is the interactive question and answer process. Individuals can submit a radiation safety-related question to the site and, within a few days, receive a personal answer by a radiation safety expert. The success of these programs, as demonstrated by referrals, and requests and questions received, will be discussed in the presentation.

.0    The Obesity Epidemic: \\\'Smoking\\\' Out \\\'Fat\\\' Data from the Centers for Disease Control. Belzer RB*; Regulatory Checkbook   belzer@regulatorycheckbook.org

Abstract: In 2002 the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued government-wide information quality guidelines to implement new statutory requirements (44 U.S.C. § 3516 note). These guidelines established, inter alia, standards for objectivity. Covered information published in peer reviewed journals was granted a rebuttable presumption that it met the objectivity standard, subject to an undefined procedure (“persuasive showing … in a particular instance”). OMB guidelines also directed agencies to establish pre-dissemination review procedures to prevent non-compliant information from being disseminated. In 2004, a team of scientists employed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) published a paper in JAMA alleging that 400,000 fatalities per year were attributable to obesity, an increase of one-third since 1990. CDC relied on these allegations to support its contention that the U.S. was experiencing an “obesity epidemic” warranting both a new federal program and the reallocation of funds from existing programs. This paper had been subjected to internal peer review widely regarded as exemplary among federal agencies. Nevertheless, the authors were subsequently shown to have seriously exaggerated the incidence of obesity, perhaps motivated to support CDC’s nascent anti-obesity campaign. Error was detected and publicized by a well-financed and stakeholder group willing and able to document error by accessing and analyzing the underlying data and models used by the CDC authors. Three lessons are drawn: (1) Conventional peer review is unlikely to be a successful tool to deter error; this case involves the failure of a probable best-case scenario. (2) The stakeholder group did not trust agency-run error correction procedures despite being extremely well-placed to maximize their effectiveness. (3) The incident supports an alternative quality assurance model combining full transparency with actively engaged, competitive review by scientific opponents rather than neutral parties.

.0    Introduction and Overview of Cessation Lag. Letkiewicz FJ*; The Cadmus Group, Inc.   FLetkiewicz@CadmusGroup.com

Abstract: The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief history of cessation lag and to define some of the terminology for the consideration of cessation lag in regulatory risk and benefit analyses. The aspect of a latency period between the time when exposure to a substance that causes cancer or other chronic effects begins and when those adverse effects become manifest in an exposed population is well-recognized and has been studied extensively for many toxicants. Less well-recognized and studied, however, is the aspect of the time period between the reduction or elimination of exposure in that exposed population and when the benefits in terms of reduced incidence of the adverse effects occur. EPA included some consideration of the timing of exposure and risk / risk reduction with respect to premature death from particulate matter in its 1999 report on the benefits and costs of the clean air act. A 2001 evaluation of the benefits analysis of the arsenic drinking water regulation by a subcommittee of EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) resulted in several specific recommendations regarding the timing of exposure and risk / risk reduction. The SAB subcommittee addressed the differences between the increase in risk over time following initiation of exposure, which is termed latency, and the decrease in risk over time following reduction or elimination of exposure, which they termed “cessation lag” to differentiate from latency. Following the SAB report, EPA developed a cessation lag model approach for arsenic in drinking water. Although never applied to the arsenic analysis (because it was decided not to change the arsenic standard), this approach was peer reviewed and presented in a 2003 EPA report. In early 2006, EPA promulgated the Stage 2 Disinfection By-Products Rule and included cessation lag in the bladder cancer benefits modeling using an approach that built upon that developed for arsenic

.0    Nuclear waste risk perceptions and attitudes in phase 2 of siting a high-level nuclear waste repository. Sjöberg L*; Private university college   lsjoberg@fastmail.fm

Abstract: The siting of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is a highly controversial issue in most countries. So far, Finland and Sweden have been exception. The corporation responsible for finding a site and building a repository for SNF in Sweden, SKB, managed to find two promising host communities in 2001: Östhammar and Oskarshamn, two small communities on the Baltic coast which both are hosting nuclear industry . They had been the subjects of pilot studies pointing to a need for an in-depth site investigation, here called phase 2. This phase involves geological studies of the bedrock in chosen localities, and also follow-up studies of the social and psychological consequences of the siting process. The present paper reports the results from such a study, carried out in 2005, in Oskarshamn and Östhammar. Comparison data from 2001 will also be presented, showing how attitudes have become increasingly more positive.

.0    Filling the Knowledge Gap:Global Efforts to Collect and Generate Information on Engineered Nanoscale Materials. Bergeson LL*; Bergeson & Campbell, P.C.   lbergeson@lawbc.com

Abstract: While consensus on matters pertinent to the human health and environmental implications of engineered nanoscale materials is elusive, there is global consensus that significant knowledge gaps exist, challenging our collective ability to identify, assess, and manage potential risks associated with engineered nanoscale materials.What information and data are needed most critically, how this information and these data are to be collected and/or generated, by whom, and by when are issues that have been properly framed by stakeholders, but for the most part remain unanswered. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.K. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (working in consultation with other Government departments and agencies), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), among many other government and private sector entities, are pondering how best to fill these knowledge gaps and how to do so efficiently, quickly, and in a way that avoids competitive inequities and market displacements. This presentation will provide an up-to-the-minute update on the status of global information collection and data development activities and identify the key issues arising in connection with these initiatives, including information collection mechanisms, confidentiality concerns, and related competitive sensitivities.

.0    Risk Perception, Scientific and Legal Causation arguments in Tort Cases. Krawciw Don*; Medical Consultant, Workers Compensation Board of British Columbia   donald.krawciw@worksafebc.com

Abstract: Injury and disability in personal injury cases often result from multiple causes. The determination of liability in such cases frequently rests on a legal causation analysis of scientific evidence. From my experience as a physician in the medico-legal field, I aim to show that there are significant parallels between the concepts of scientific and legal cause and scientific and legal risk. Using illustrative tort case law examples, I will highlight how \\\"experiential\\\" risk perception serves as a key bridge between expert scientific evidence and legal verdict.

.0    Risk Management Tools for Port Security, Critical Infrastructure, and Sustainability: Summary of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop. Ramadan A*, Bridges T, Della Sala S, Kiker G, Valverde J, Wenning R; Atomic Energy Agency (Egypt), Venice Port Authority, Army Corps of Engineers, University of Florida, Insurance Information Institute, ENVIRON Corporation, Cambridge Environmental inc.   ramadan58@yahoo.com

Abstract: Effective risk assessment and risk management at industrial ports and harbors requires consideration of numerous factors, including the protection and maintenance of critical infrastructure, emergency response planning, and the adoption of sustainable practices. Risk assessment and Risk management provide port and government authorities with the appropriate tools to prioritize security needs and to evaluate scenarios that can potentially impact the environment, cause injuries or fatalities, and result in both short- and long-term economic impacts. While risk assessors have an enormous array of methods and guidance documents from which to select, risk managers do not have an equivalent toolbox from which to obtain prescriptive decision-making advice on how best to address environmental security and sustainability concerns. This presentation reports results of the NATO workshop designed to review the current practices and options for improvement of risk assessment and risk management practices to address the complex challenges of protecting, preventing, and responding to threats that jeopardize environmental security and critical infrastructure at industrial ports. The ARW provided risk managers with a “tool box” of approaches and methods that are useful to promote the development and enhancement of programs for addressing environmental protection, security, and critical infrastructure. The value of incorporating a systematic understanding of stakeholder perspectives in projects that have fundamental environmental security and sustainability issues was addressed. Various risk and decision analysis models were reviewed through case studies; case studies were also used to illustrate how retrospective and prospective evaluations of various security threats can be used to improve port operation practices, and to reduce the consequences of either natural or man-made disasters.

.0    Enhancing Joint Task Force Cognitive Leadership Skills. Satterstrom FK*, Linkov I, Fenton GP, Gaskins RC; Cambridge Environmental Inc.   satterstrom@cambridgeenvironmental.com

Abstract: Military ground forces in Joint Task Forces (JTFs), both now and in the future, are likely to perform operations in which they must be interdependent with the cultures of other Services, governmental agencies, multi-national forces, and the populations of countries in which operations are occurring. JTF staff member exposure to other services may be limited; they may not be familiar other Service competencies. Today’s war also requires cognitive skills from a warfighter who must deal with social, cultural, and language barriers. The focus of this project is on overcoming these barriers through jointness in leadership training. We will conduct front-end analysis to determine the components of shared mental models of JTF staff members’ understanding of jointness, cultural differences among the Services, and operational capabilities and environments where these issues are especially important. Based on this analysis, we will develop a computer-mediated training environment that can rapidly enhance the cognitive leadership skills required for ground component officers and non-commissioned officers to be effective in a Joint Task Force. We will create example exercises based on shared mental models designed to maximize JTF effectiveness. Performance metrics will also be developed that objectively measure leadership behavior and training progress utilizing the training software.

.0    Comparing Risk Assessment at FDA and EPA. Elliott ED*; Yale Law School   delliott@willkie.com

Abstract: Abstract: Author: Professor E. Donald Eliott, Yale Law School and former EPA General Counsel. This abstract is a contribution to the Workshop proposal submitted by Frederic Bouder on Lessons and Comparisons of EPA and FDA risk assessment approaches. Professor Elliott teaches courses in both FDA, EPA and Risk Assessment. The contribution will take the form of an input to a panel discussion involving other senior regulators and experts. The objective of the discussion is to compare and assess current mechanisms used by regulatory agencies to achieve the \\\"right\\\" balance between society\\\'s expectations and the need for science based decisions. The contribution will bring a lawyer\\\'s perspectives on food safety and pharmaceuticals, drawing on past and current experiences in both environmental and food and drug regulation. It will also discuss the OMB Risk Assessment Bulletin and other mechanisms for standardinzing risk assessment across agencies, as well as discuss the extent to which standardization of methods is and is not desirable or practical. Professor Elliott is an academic lawyer and member of the Board of Environmental Studies and Toxicology of the National Research Council, but also a former government official and practices actively in both environmnetal and food and drug law.

.0    Risk Assessment Framework for Proteins in r-DNA plants. Tran NL*, van Germert M, Petersen B; Exponent, Inc.   ntran@exponent.com

Abstract: This paper reviews the safety and testing issues relating to proteins in r-DNA plants, including inherent toxicity of novel genes and their products, unintended effects, previous experience with protein safety testing, and testing issues related to novel foods and ingredients. In the context of the existing literature and with additional consideration for evaluating unfamiliar proteins, a three-tiered approach for assessing risk of proteins is proposed. The tiered framework provides the logical sequence of evaluating steps and decision points. While recognizing that proteins are rarely toxic, this framework has been designed to ensure that the isolated proteins and proteins within whole foods are evaluated in systems with sufficient sensitivity to elicit toxicity. The proposed approach incorporates a decision-tree approach and recognizes that proteins are not teratogenic, mutagenic, or carcinogenic and that virtually all effects are observed after single or at most short-term exposures. For the toxicity testing requirements to be imposed for each of the three tiers, an initial structure-activity screen is suggested, which is specifically designed to identify possible pleiotropic or mutagenic changes in the genome of the host. Using established and accepted methods of analytical, nutritional and toxicological research, the concept of substantial equivalence, and a tiered approach to protein safety testing, the safety of current GM foods can be compared with that of their conventional counterparts and their safety equivalent to that of traditional foods will be ensured.

.0    Practices for food-additive and food-contaminant risk assessment in FDA. Wilson JD*; retired   wilson.jimjudy@att.net

Abstract: FDA\\\'s practices for evaluation of risks from food additives and food contaminants vary because of different requirements of the enabling statutes. Food additive risk assessment informs a dichotomistic decision: to approve or not. Its practices are very policy-intensive, using a small number of toxicologic observations with more data on food intake, all underlain by a very extensive empirical, scientific base. Toxicologic data are processed using standard algorithms; predictions of intake use a distributional analysis based on food-intake surveys. The result is simple: the substance can be judged safe when used as intended, or not. Food contaminant risk analysis informs a more complex decision, one that considers both risk and some aspects of benefit. The analysis of intake is fundamentally the same as that used in food-additive assessment, although in most cases actual measurements of food content will be available. Food-additive practices are used in a screening evaluation. If a more detailed evaluation is needed, an estimate of conditional risk, given intake, is constructed from dose-response and intake information. Risk assessment practices of most EPA Offices are based strongly on the food-additive practices. Some observations on the implications of these practices will be offered.

.0    Fire Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Management - Stakeholders Perceptions of Research, Educational and Guidance Needs. Mackenzie S*, Taylor K, Moore D; Robert Gordon University   s.mackenzie@rgu.ac.uk

Abstract: Resulting from the current legislative and regulatory shifts towards a risk informed fire safety regime within the UK, those with a statutory duty under the proposals have expressed concern over the lack of suitable research, training, and guidance on fire risk assessment and management. These concerns are compounded by the fragmented development of the fire risk area which has led to the isolated development of a wide range of stakeholder groupings, professional registers, special interest groups, and consultancy services being offered in an attempt to fill the void. During an October 2004 FERN fire risk workshop, 16 high profile speakers presented their perceptions of future fire risk research needs to a small audience of key stakeholders. They as part of the fire community confirmed a significant need for the development of a national risk network, to allow the development of integrated, responsive and strategic research, educational, and guidance programmes within this developing area. Since the workshop, the network proposal has been advanced and the fire risk research team at Robert Gordon University, now report on the findings of a major survey of stakeholders perceptions of fire risk research, educational and guidance needs and support potential for such an inclusive network.

.0    The Effect of Uncertainty Factor Placement on Reference Concentrations Derived Using PBPK Modeling and Internal Dosimetry. Teeguarden JG*, Kirman CR; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (1); The Sapphire Group, Inc. (2)   jteeguarden@pnl.gov

Abstract: Uncertainty factors (UF) are applied in human health risk assessments for chemicals to reduce acceptable human exposures, and presumably risk from exposure, by a level that reflects the degree of uncertainty in the assessment. The U.S. EPA standard approach is to determine a human equivalent concentration or dose (HEC or HED, both external concentrations) from an animal effect level (NOAEL, LOAEL, BMD), and then divide this value by the composite UF. This approach does not always result in a margin of safety reflective of the level of uncertainty in the assessment, a problem not widely understood by practitioners. To address this problem, we develop the fundamentals of dosimetry based risk assessment, with a focus on the effect placement of UF (external or internal dose) has on the margin of safety for chronic exposure limits. A general case will be developed demonstrating that the assumption implicit in the standard EPA approach—applying UF’s to an HEC or HED reduces exposure by a factor equivalent to the composite UF results in an equivalent decrease in the target tissue dose—can fail when the exposure:tissue dose relationship is non linear. Several specific, published examples for systemic (propylene glycol methyl ether) and portal of entry (acrylic acid, styrene) effects will be presented. These case studies demonstrate that U.S. EPA standard approach can result in references levels for chronic exposures (RfC’s or RfD’s) that have margins of safety that are greater/lesser than intended. The recommended solution presented for discussion involves the application of uncertainty factors to the internal dose rather than the HEC or HED, an approach that can be shown to produce exposure limits that have a margin of safety equivalent to the assumed uncertainty in the assessment.

.0    Academic peer review: Gold standard or fool\\\'s gold? Finkel AM*; Princeton University and UMDNJ School of Public Health   afinkel@princeton.edu

Abstract: The rebuttable presumption of the Information Quality Guidelines that external peer review confers “objectivity” upon information used in risk assessment manages to simultaneously put some forms of peer review on a pedestal while denigrating other forms that may be superior. It also reflects confusion about the type of information that peer review of any form is capable of legitimizing; to oversimplify, policy opinions masquerading as science should not gain credibility merely because a small number of reviewers share them (or participate in a process that ends up ignoring their disagreement). Using two examples of recent peer-reviewed articles, associated with viewpoints at opposite regions of the ideological spectrum—one on phosphine and one on 1,3-butadiene—I will describe aspects of academic peer review that cast doubt on the core presumptions of objectivity and quality. Other mechanisms—notably the trial-type rulemaking hearings some agencies routinely convene—may have more potential for improving scientific rigor.

.0    EPA Peer Review Handbook and Peer Consultation. Farland W*; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency   patterson@tera.org

Abstract: ABSTRACT TO BE SUBMITTED A LITTLE LATE - We had a last minute cancellation for the symposium and Bill Farland agreed to present in this spot. However, he\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s on his way to Vietnam and cannot get the abstract in on time. Sue Burk suggested I submit this note.

.0    Factors Affecting Model Selection and Input Parameter Variation on Fire Risk Assessment Procedures in Educational Occupancies. Mackenzie S*, Moore D, Kilpatrick T, Hardcastle C; Robert Gordon University, Glasgow Caledonian University   s.mackenzie@rgu.ac.uk

Abstract: Statutory requirements implemented within the UK in 1997, required employers to assess the fire risk associated within their premises. Despite the proliferation of alternative assessment methodologies since 1997, there was an absence of a method which allowed the effective assessment of risk and prioritisation of resources within educational occupancies. This paper outlines an Engineering and Physical Science Research Council project and the findings of interviews with educational occupancy facilities management teams. The participants perceived that available generic methodologies were: (i) unsuitable for complex educational portfolios, (ii) difficult or costly to apply, (iii) produced overly complex or simplistic output data, (iv) lacked one or more of the following attributes: sensitivity, robustness, reliability or validity (v) significant variations between assessors rankings were encountered, (vi) guidance on survey and data capture procedures omitted, and (vii) lacked usable output data for expenditure prioritisation. The project team conducted a parallel literature review, of factors affecting model selection and input parameter variation on fire risk assessment procedures, to augment the interview findings. Triangulation of these research findings with the legislative requirements allowed construction of the qualitative model presented in this paper and describes the hierarchy of factors impacting fire risk assessment model selection or development.

.0    Lessons and comparisons of EPA and FDA risk assessment approaches. Gray GM*; US EPA   gray.george@epa.gov

Abstract: The Symposium panel discussion will benefit from a perspective on current and evolving human health risk assessment practices at EPA. Identification of processes used to develop and implement risk assessment procedures, including scientific input and peer review, will be important in comparing approaches in different Federal agencies. The varying uses of risk information in a range of different EPA decisions will highlight challenges to current practice and opportunities for improvement.

.0    Evaluation of site-specific vapor intrusion data for developing a conceptual site model. Weinberg NM*, Wacksman MN, Zahradnik A; ARCADIS   nweinberg@arcadis-us.com

Abstract: Vapor intrusion and potential human health exposure and risk from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in indoor air continues to be an important regulatory issue. In most cases, groundwater containing VOCs below a building is considered to be the primary source for vapor intrusion. As reported in this case study, sources of vapor intrusion were examined at two commercial buildings overlying groundwater containing VOCs including trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene. Subslab soil gas and indoor air sampling indicated that vapor intrusion was only of concern at one facility. To further investigate potential sources into this building, a field screening survey was developed to determine if floor cracks were providing entry for vapors, or if the concrete floor was a source due to off-gassing from historical spills. Data results from both facilities were combined with the field screening survey to refine the conceptual site model (CSM). The CSM suggested that low levels of VOCs in subsurface soil below one facility were the primary source of VOCs into indoor air. This hypothesis was validated by the results of Johnson and Ettinger modeling that showed that subsurface soil as opposed to groundwater could be the primary source. The CSM developed for these buildings will be used for other properties also over the groundwater plume. This study highlights the importance of fully developing a site-specific CSM and investigating all potential sources of contamination.

.0    RISK FACTORS FROM LIVING AND WORKING IN MEXICO CITY. PEREZ-FLORIANO LR*; ITAM-UNIVERSITY   lorena@itam.mx

Abstract: Insecurity is an important and salient concern for most individuals around the world. From fear of terrorism attacks to fear of injury during wartime. One needs to take into consideration people’s psychological, cultural, and ecological conditions, since these three elements interact to help people create meaning about the danger of a given hazard or event and eventually make decisions about hazard management. The issue of societal risks as context and its effects on individuals productivity within organizations is here explored. Perceived risk from living and working in Mexico City were elicited from a group of professionals. Thirty risks were rated by 401 professional living and working in Mexico City. After factor analyses were performed, nine items were deleted (i.e., risk from weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, cloning, visual pollution, African bees, sources of high voltage, illegal electrical installations, biotechnology of corn) the risk factors are: (a) Crime risk: The likelihood of being a victim of crime; (b) Risk from urban decay: Risk derived from big city alienation and unaccountability of behavior among people; (c) Risk from natural disasters: Risk associated with probable natural disasters in the Mexico City geographical area; (d) Risks from overpopulation: Risks associated with human’s destruction of nature and living in an overly crowded geographical area; and (e) Market and economic risk: Risks associated with living and working in a developing economy. The risks are associated with Schwartz values, stress, behavioral changes in lifestyle, consumption, and ideology. Crime and risk from urban decay predict intention to move out of the city and to quit one’s jobs.

.0    Investigation of particle-bound nicotine concentrations in the public places in Taichung city, Taiwan. hsu ht, kuo ct, wang yl*; China Medical University   hthsu@mail.cmu.edu.tw

Abstract: Taiwan passed the Anti-smoking Law in 1997. However, the law did not ban the smoking in the public houses. Consequently, customer environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure can take place. In order to understand the level of exposure to ETS in the public places in Taichung city, a sampling program was established in 2005. The respirable suspended particles were collected by using active sampling method equipped with XAD-2 sampling tube. The airborne nicotine concentrations were then measured by GC/FID. We divided the public places into four categories, namely commercial type, school, occupational type, and office. The results showed that the highest nicotine concentration was collected at recreational center of billiard. The concentration was 20.88 g/m3. The average was about 9.18 g/m3. Comparing with the concentrations of nicotine in the public place of U.S., our results were significantly higher than those of reported data.

.0    Investigation of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivations for Smoking Cessation—A Case Study of Taichung City. hsu ht, wu ym, lin cf, chou ws*; China Medical University   hthsu@mail.cmu.edu.tw

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to smoking cessation. In addition, we use risk perception of smoking to explain the difference among different respondents. Our samples are taken from Taichung city. The ages of all respondents are all above 15. The total samples are 704 in which 189 are smokers. Among smokers, 133 replied that they have intention for smoking cessation and 56 of them never have intention for smoking cessation. The results indicated that regardless of social-economical status, “health concerns” is the most important motivation for smoking cessation. From this study, we also found that most smokers replied that they don’t think that they can quit smoking successfully (with low self-control motivation). Conclusions: This can explain the reason why the percentage was low for smokers successfully achieved smoking cessation in Taiwan. In order to help smokers for smoking cessation, we suggested that using the motivation model is a necessary step in smoking cessation program.

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