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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2005

Session Schedule & Abstracts


T3 - Oral
Transportation Systems Risk

Ireland C   8:30-10:00 am

Chair(s): S. Levinson
T3.1  Florida Drivers: Their Manners of Collisions and Risks. Straus S.H., Gu X.; ESRA Consulting Corporation   lephillip@esracorp.com

Abstract: This study evaluates the characteristics of manners of collisions, or harmful event collisions with motor vehicles in transport, in the State of Florida over an eleven-year period from 1991 to 2001. A database of two-vehicle accidents allows us to establish which licensed drivers of nine different age cohorts are most likely to be at-fault in any one of six types of motor vehicle collision through application of the Relative Accident Involvement Ratio (RAIR). We determine that the likelihood of at-fault angle, backing, head-on, left-turn, and sideswipe collision involvement steadily increases from age 20 to 89 years. We also observe that while drivers ages 16 to 19 years are mostly at-fault in rear-end collisions, drivers age 80 to 89 years are most susceptible to angle, backing, head-on, left-turn, and sideswipe at-fault manner of collision events. These findings appear to compare to our previous study on Arizona drivers (Straus, 2005; Straus and Gu, 2005).

T3.2  Uncertainties and Risks in Improving Ship Maneuverability Standards and Ship Safety. Li Y, Landsburg A, Barr R, Calisal S; University of British Columbia, US Maritime Administration and Hydronautics Research Inc.   ly_liye@mech.ubc.ca

Abstract: Ship maneuverability has assumed increasing importance in ship design and ship safety over the last forty years as a result of major marine disasters, increasing environmental concerns, increasing waterway congestion, and ever larger vessels which increases the potential impacts of accidents. The world wide accepted ship maneuverability standards were adopted by International Maritime Organization (IMO) which provides the detailed performance criteria. These criteria are only based on empirical relationships derived from full scale ship trials data and towing tank test data for vessels operating in unrestricted water and it evolves slowly in past decade. However, most recent large-ship accidents occurred in the shallow and laterally restricted water of harbors and channels where the accurate prediction of ship maneuverability is just becoming feasible. These accidents have compelled naval architects and engineers to advance the standards. The effort to improve the standards keeps focusing on the traditional factors in a conservative way and has no achievement reported yet, which already received attentions from government agencies. In this paper, an integrated approach is suggested to improve the standards for ship maneuverability and ship safety, which goes beyond the traditional full scale sea trial result and empirical judgment, and covers other aspects such as quantified harbor assistances, channel design, control system and even the concerns from the ship owners. The uncertainties related to this new approach no longer only lie in the data acquired from the random sea but also the control system and lots of human judgments, which will be highlighted in this paper too.

T3.3  DEFENSE IN DEPTH: IDENTIFY DEFENSE ELEMENTS WITHIN A TRANSPORT SYSTEM. COINTET A; Paris Mass Transport Authority   alain.cointet@ratp.fr

Abstract: RATP provides passenger transportation in Paris for more than a hundred years: Despite its huge experience in term of safety, it keeps facing problems related to complex system, due to actual requirements and constraints. It has progressively installed safety barriers within the system, written procedures, carried out inspections and audits, managed a system safety network composed of experts, taken into account human factors (ergonomic, formalized experience feedback) and optimize its design approaches in order to fit safety requirements related to equipment and software. Despite these preventive and corrective measures, serious breakdowns still appear but less often and their consequences are better controlled. Still, in order to improve always the safety level and to anticipate new hazardous situations, RATP has decided to complete its risk control policy by developing the " defense in deep " concept. To ensure risk identification and preliminary analyze, RATP wish to formalize and elaborate a referential of defense for the transport system. This means creating database of defense element and defining a way to represent these different elements. This referential, in order to be elaborated, needs two previous steps: One methodology to identify and characterize the defense elements participating to risk prevention and protection within the existing transportation system, One specification to describe the structure and illustration of the defense referential. This presentation deals with the methodology of defense element identification and will be illustrated through an example.

T3.4  A Multi-Criteria Risk Analysis of the Hazmat Multi-Shipment Routing Problem. Bronfman A.C. *, Miranda P.A., Bronfman N.C.; Universidad Andres Bello, Chile.   nbronfman@unab.cl

Abstract: In the last decades, systems and supply chain involving Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) has fashioned higher requirements and volumes handled. In this context, an efficient logistic management of HAZMAT appears as absolutely necessary to reduce and control the total risk arisen to the nearby population. The latter is especially relevant to the risks related with potentially catastrophic incidents during transport. The most common indicators of the risk issues related with HAZMAT transportation are the expected consequences over the links and routes selected, the occurrence probability of a catastrophic accident in the system, and conditional expected consequences given a catastrophic accident has occurred. Consequently, different kinds of events (low/high probability vs. low/high consequences, related with incidents of HAZMAT transport) can be considered. This work is based in the papers of Sherali, et al. (1997), Erkut, et al (1995, 1998), which developed different but related modeling structures to support decision making in transport HAZMAT. A modeling structure based on network flow was employed to support policymakers in defining a set of links and routes, in an urban network, to transport a specific HAZMAT. The problem considers a fixed and known number of shipments (trucks) to be transported between a particular pair Origin-Destination. Furthermore this methodology allows solving a decisional problem in an integrative perspective, balancing and controlling different objectives of the enterprises interested in to transport HAZMAT and those of policymakers. A suitable and efficient methodology, based on some principles of multi-criteria analysis, is developed to control the three conflicting risk indicators stated above. The methodology was applied into an actual case in Santiago, Chile, obtaining a reduction in the total risk arisen to the potentially exposed population.



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