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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2005

Session Schedule & Abstracts


T15 - Symposium
Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas: Management Using Comparative Risk Assessment and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Scotland C   10:30 am-Noon

Chair(s): G. Kiker, T. Bridges

With attention in many areas of the world focused on perceived and real security issues, people in many professional disciplines are developing policies and actions that integrate risk assessment and functional decision-making into environmental resource planning. Coastal areas attract people and are subject to increased industrial activities and overpopulation. At the same time, these areas have a need to balance anthropogenic needs such as navigation, industrial development with ecological factors such as restoration or invasive species. During the 21st century environmental challenges in balancing human and ecological needs are likely to increase and may lead to significant conflicts if functional approaches to addressing these environmental problems are not recognized and discussed. In response to these challenges, integrative decision-making policies and plans should be launched jointly in the framework of co-operative strategies and conflict avoidance. Addressing the environmental threats and their resulting mitigation actions necessitates not only an understanding of the basic risk assessment paradigm along with a familiarity with the tools of risk analysis to assess, interpret and communicate risks, but also requires a modification of the risk paradigm to incorporate unique political and ecological challenges of different countries and their level of development. This Symposium will summarize results of the April 2005 NATO Workshop. The workshop discussed applications of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to environmental security in coastal regions including sub-topics such as navigation issues, restoration and invasive species. During the workshop, three working groups were tasked to summarize state of CRA and MCDA application in three topical areas: (i) Environmental Security, (ii) Contaminated Sediment Management and (iii) Environmental Restoration and Invasive Species Management. Working Group summaries will be presented by WG Chairs at this Symposium. NATO Workshop materials are posted on the website www.risktrace.com/nato

 

T15.1  Workshop Summary: Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas . Kiker G.A., Linkov I.; University of Florida and Cambridge Environmental Inc   gkiker@ufl.edu

Abstract: This presentation summarizes the NATO Workshop on Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas (April 2005, Greece). The workshop discussed applications of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to environmental security issues (reviewed in pre-conference white papers) including sub-topics such as navigation issues, restoration and invasive species. Specific results of the working groups are summarized in subsequent symposium presentations. While most workshops participants were well-versed in some aspects of CRA, MCDA or environmental security issues, few had wide experience in all three areas. The conference presentations and subsequent working groups showed that future demands on professionals will highlight the integrative and adaptive nature of decision-making within coastal areas. Given the significant challenges for coastal areas, structured and defensible decision-making tools are going to be increasingly required in environmental management decisions. MCDA in combination with risk assessment has the systematic foundation to build useful tools for integrating scientific analysis with stakeholder values. While assorted risk and decision tools have been developed, the associated regulatory frameworks may need to be revised to promote further use of these tools.

T15.2  Addressing Environmental Security in Ports, Harbors and Coastal Areas: Review of Approaches and Tools. Wenning R.J.*, Linkov I., Belluck D., Figueira J., Xenidis, M. Kiker Y.; ENVIRON International Corporation, USA; Cambridge Environmental Inc., USA; U. S. Department of Transportation; University of Coimbra and INESC-Coimbra, Portugal; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece; Zama Environmental, USA   rjwenning@environcorp.com

Abstract: At a NATO workshop on environmental security held April 2005 in Greece, a team of international risk assessment, decision-making, environmental modeling and engineering experts from 11 countries explored the tools and approaches available for addressing environmental security issues in ports, harbors and coastal areas. Environmental security is viewed increasingly by governments and international organizations as a critical issue; urban development and growth requirements and increasing environmental concerns are challenging current strategies regarding environmental protection and management. Several approaches and tools have emerged to evaluate natural and man-made environmental vulnerabilities at chemical manufacturing plants, energy plants, transportation networks and other critical infrastructure located in heavily populated urban areas and coastal ports and harbors. Evaluation of the effectiveness of these approaches and tools in the current framework of environmental management is important to verify their appropriateness and identify possible future needs to address environmental security. Maintaining or enhancing environmental security requires consideration of 3 elements: a) understanding of basic human, ecological and environmental conditions; b) prediction of various opportunities whereby security might be compromised; and, c) analysis of the range of options to enhance, prevent or minimize the opportunity for such events to occur. Each element requires consideration from different stakeholder perspectives, and entails a broad range of quantitative and qualitative sociopolitical, environmental and economic information. The convergence of these seemingly disparate sources of information is possible using one or more methodologies and available decision-making tools, although the strengths and limitations of different approaches must be recognized.

T15.3  ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND CONTAMINATED SEDIMENTS: MANAGEMENT USING COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK. Bridges T, Satterstrom K, Biggs B; US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, Cambridge Environmental, Cambridge, MA, Professional Training & Facilitation Services, South Africa   Todd.S.Bridges@erdc.usace.army.mil

Abstract: This presentation will summarize discussions of the Contaminated Sediment Working Group during the NATO Workshop on Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas (April 2005, Greece). The group discussions focused on four aspects of sediment management: management contexts and criteria, management processes and outcomes, people engagement, and information / knowledge. First, management contexts and criteria involve setting up the decision framework. Problem identification is an important and often overlooked initial step, as is careful determination of the proper criteria to use when evaluating possible management alternatives, including which life-cycle model, standards, and indicators would be appropriate. Second, management processes and outcomes include efficient planning and planning support tools, consideration of available remedial options, review of relevant technical tools, and lessons learned as well as process improvement. The group discussed each step in terms of time, predictability, and scale. Third, people engagement is an important aspect of sediment management – the group concluded that a successful project is one that embraces the stakeholders, culture, and decision makers involved in the management situation. Finally, information enables the other steps – it is created by people and the management process, and everyone should have the right to use it for community benefit. Contamination and responsible party issues affect information as well, and the group found that communication becomes problematic in the legal sphere when people begin to withhold information. The overall goal of the group was to provide a resource for contaminated sediment managers by discussing available management tools and common problems.

T15.4  ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND ENVIRONEMNTAL RESTORATION: MANAGEMENT USING COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS. Payne B, Kiker G, Yoe C; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180, University of Florida, and College of Notre Dame of Maryland   Barry.S.Payne@erdc.usace.army.mil

Abstract: This presentation will summarize discussions of the Restoration and Invasive Species Working Group during the NATO Workshop on Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas (April 2005, Greece). The restoration and invasive species working group defined coastal restoration as management of biological, chemical, and physical hazards and resources in the coastal zone to produce a desired, safe environment in accordance with nature. Important considerations for establishing objectives of restoration include consideration of feasibility, sustainability, damaging trends, minimizing environmental degradation and hazards, and aesthetics. The need for specific performance or success criteria that are realistic, relevant, and object-oriented was identified and related to identification of appropriate indicators and metrics for evaluating restoration efforts. Timing, spatial scale, and methods (remote sensing, models, in-situ monitoring) were discussed in relation to physical, biological, land use and human activities, and economic characteristics that determine the success of restoration. Special emphasis was placed on the need to recognize how broad-level uncertainties (e.g., global warming, catastrophes, population change) affect coastal restoration. Frameworks (e.g., risk analysis, scenario planning, collaborative learning, and adaptive management) and tools (e.g., fuzzy set theory, probabilistic scenarios, multi-criteria decision analysis, and comparative risk assessment) were discussed in relation to both coastal zone restoration and invasive species management.



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