W17 - Education in Risk Analysis I: World ProgramsSan Jacinto 1:30 - 3:00 pm
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| Chair(s): David Hassenzahl
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W17.1 Risk Analysis Courses and Programs in the US and Canada. D Hassenzahl; University of Nevada Las Vegas david.hassenzahl@ccmail.nevada.edu
Abstract: An increasing number of colleges and universities offer courses or programs in risk analysis. This paper evaluates whether there is an established academic standard for risk courses and / or programs by reviewing a variety of risk analysis syllabi and program descriptions in the United States and Canada. It finds diverse attention to methods, topics and disciplines, but limited attention to international issues. There is no established norm for risk analysis training. I present a matrix of risk analysis course and program types, as well as the range of institutions in which they are offered. Note that the focus is on environmental, health and safety risk, and does not include courses or programs in financial risk management.
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W17.3 Foundational issues in risk analysis. T. Aven; University of Stavanger terje.aven@tn.his.no
Abstract: Many risk analysts do not understand the fundamental building blocks of risk analysis. This apply for example to the meaning of risk and uncertainty, and the understanding and use of models, including probability models. This is not surprising when looking at the literature of risk analysis. There exists a lot of risk analysis methods and tools, but no authoritative guide on how to think when analysing risk and uncertainty. And if we challenge a group of risk analyst professionals to explain what the risk analysis results express and what is meant by uncertainty in the numbers produced, we obtain a number of different answers and many of these we would characterise as extremely poor. The same conclusions we would make if we ask the analysts to elaborate on for instance model uncertainty.
We believe that the present status is unacceptable, and there is a strong need for improvements. How can risk analysis successfully be applied in a decision making context if not the risk analyst know what they are doing and are able to communicate risk and uncertainty in a good way? In our view such improvements can only be achieved by sharpening the level of precision on the foundational basis of risk analysis, and this means a clarification of what the analysis seek to express; uncertainties of future observables, or assessment of fictional probabilities and expected values representing some average performance of thought constructed similar units to the one being studied.
In the paper we explain these views in more detail and discuss how it would be possible to obtain the desired improvements. Examples are used to illustrate our message.
Key reference: Aven (2003) Foundations of Risk Analysis, Wiley, N.Y.
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W17.4 Teaching Risk Analysis to a Global Audience. C. Yoe; College of Notre Dame of Maryland cyoe1@comcast.net
Abstract: Food production, processing, distribution and consumption comprise one of the world's largest economic enterprises. Modern food safety systems are science-based. The risk analysis paradigm is an essential element of a science-based approach to food safety and public health. The need for training and support in the use of the risk analysis paradigm in food safety is large and growing.
Developed nations are generally capable of providing for their training needs while developing nations need assistance in building the capacity to use the risk analysis paradigm. Working with translators, conveying concepts in a jargon that does not translate well to audiences that may not include the right people with equipment that may or may not work present some very practical challenges to the trainer or lecturer. Efforts to data to provide training to developing nations have produced many very practical lessons learned about teaching risk analysis to a global audience. The most obvious yet the most often omitted step is to identify and write down the objectives of the training seminar and each presentation in it. A less obvious example is that with simultaneous translation you lose all control of your language skills and must compel your audience with the clarity of your ideas because nuance is gone, timing is gone, humor is gone, even accuracy is gone. This presentation offers a practical collection of lessons learned over several years of training in developing countries.
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