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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2004

Session Schedule & Abstracts

T17 - Risk Management, Risk Science and Law San Jacinto

T17.2  Flood crisis management and awareness of municipal government employees. Kiyomine TERUMOTO, Teruko SATO, Teruki FUKUZONO, Saburo IKEDA; national research institute for earth science and disaster prevention   terumoto@bosai.go.jp Abstract: Flood disasters caused by typhoons, localized heavy rains, and other violent storms occur every year in Japan. However, on many occasions, when emergency response from municipal governments is called for, criticism of unsatisfactory crisis management follows. Measures to mitigate flood risk that do not depend on flood control facilities are very important. We examined issues related to crisis management, focusing on municipal employee awareness. We analyzed responses to a questionnaire targeting people in the crisis management sections of municipal governments. Our research questions concerned problems related to emergency situations, emergency response preparedness, effects of damage mitigation measures, and the needs for non-structural measures to deal with crises. We quantified the response to each questionnaire item and used canonical correlation analysis to find relationships between variables. The results showed that there are three main issues in crisis management: the necessity of resident involvement for emergency responses, the organization of municipal government emergency response systems, and the construction of information communication systems involving both facilities and people. In addition, municipal government employees strongly emphasized the necessity of emergency response by residents generally.

T17.3  Value of information analysis on decisions about farmed salmon consumption. JT* Tuomisto, J Tuomisto, M Tainio, J Pekkanen; Centre for Environmental Health Risk Analysis, KTL   jouni.tuomisto@ktl.fi Abstract: Fatty fish such as salmon is good for health because its omega-3 fatty acids protect against cardiovascular diseases. However, many persistent pollutants contaminate salmon and other predator fish. Hites and co-workers (Science Jan 9, 2004) analysed wild and farmed salmon samples from North and South America and Europe for organic pollutants. The authors concluded that farmed salmon should not be eaten more than 0.25 - 1 times per month. Because they did not consider health benefits in their analysis, we performed a risk-benefit analysis and value of information analysis on this issue. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate the uncertainties. For pollutant risks, we used the same U.S.EPA model as in the original article. For fish benefits, we considered cardiovascular effects of omega-3 fatty acids. The estimated reduction in cancer due to the recommendation suggested in the original article was in the order of tens of cases per year in Western Europe. However, the decrease in fish consumption would cause thousands of cardiovascular deaths during the same time period. It is therefore clear that if net health effects are considered, restrictions should not be recommended. In the value of information analysis, the only uncertainty having any value was whether net effect or cancer effect was the right metric. This is a political, not a scientific question. The decision can be formulated in another way and focus on further actions on fish feed, not consumer recommendations. In this case, value of information was associated with several scientific as well as political uncertainties. In conclusion, the question about restricting consumption of farmed salmon appeared to be non-scientific, because the outcome of the analysis was totally driven by a political variable. Instead, the question about fish feed regulation was partially scientific and would benefit from further research. Value of additional scientific information always depends on the decision being addressed.

T17.4  Development of Human Risk Assessment System for Integrated Environmental Management in Korea . JY Yang, DC Shin, MK Ho, KH Jung, SE Park; The Institute for Environmental Research, Yonsei University, College of Medicine   jyyang67@yumc.yonsei.ac.kr Abstract: Health risk assessment is a process of estimating the qualitative and quantitative effects that might occur when a person is exposed to environmental hazards. The ultimate objective of risk assessment is to provide rational and scientific information for risk management, especially in the areas of environmental policy making and regulatory control. The objectives of this study were to develop available ‘system software’ in health risk assessment for multimedia and multipathways scenarios and to serve it as Decision Support System (DSS) for effective management of environmental risk in municipal and industrial areas in Korea. We planed to develop a prototype of system software in the first and second year (2001~2003) and generic type of that including Geographical Information System (GIS) in the last year (2003~2004). The human health risk assessment model for multimedia and multipathways scenarios could estimate health risks from human exposure considering environmental multimedia (ambient air, indoor air, surface water, drinking water, and ground soil) and 12 multipathways. We constructed the several databases such as physiological, chemical and toxicological properties for 672 chemicals, exposure parameters of Korean, and population information for study areas. This model could evaluate individual and population risk and would be supported the various exposure parameters for Korean. We were assessed to 7 metropolitan cities and 10 industrial areas in Korea. For risk evaluation to 58 chemicals, we used the simulated data by the multimedia fate model and field monitoring data in study areas. The level of excess cancer risk was 1*10-3 at the Ulsan (industrial complex city) and Pusan (metropolitan city) and was higher than that of the other areas. The PAHs (Poly Cyclic Hydrocarbons) in ambient air and ground soil were the predominant pollutants at Ulsan city. The other hands, the metals in ambient air were the predominant pollutants at Pusan city.

T17.5  Legal Issues Facing Perchlorate-Contaminated Federal Facilities. Ilkay Pinar Dogru; Texas Tech University, Graduate JD/MS Environmental Toxicology   pinar.dogru@tiehh.ttu.edu Abstract: Perchlorate is a contaminant affecting the thyroid gland, that has the ability to migrate far distances in aqueous environments and persist for decades. The contaminant, ammonium perchlorate (NH4ClO4), is used as part of the explosive-manufacturing process, and was discovered present in the soil and water in 1998 at the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas, and has since been closely monitored by the TCEQ and EPA for compliance with the relevant environmental statutes and interim levels set for perchlorate. NWIRP, is new on the scene of perchlorate-contaminated federal facilities; however, with the dissolution of sovereign immunity and advancements toward perchlorate regulation, federal facilities such as NWIRP face potentially more liability than in the previous years. Due to the lack of conclusive studies, the EPA has been hesitant to set a national standard regulating perchlorate. Individual states may set their own action levels, the point at which notification and monitoring is required for the contaminant. Some states such as California and Nevada are readily pursuing their own action levels, setting the action level at 18 ppb. Over twenty-two states have now alerted the public that their neighboring drinking water supply may be contaminated by perchlorate. Texas joins the group with four perchlorate-contaminated sites that are currently being monitored for perchlorate. As a model, this study focusses on the risk and legal analysis at the Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant in McGregor, Texas.

T17.6  Controlling Emerging Risks: Preventing a Nanotechnology Arms Race. M Volk; Arizona State University College of Law   michael.volk@asu.edu Abstract: Molecular Nanotechnology ("MNT"), the construction of materials through control of matter on the nanometer length scale by atomic assembly, has the potential to revolutionize humanity. Potential applications include miniature detection devices for biological warfare agents, novel drug delivery systems, and technology that can reverse environmental contamination. With new technology comes the risk that the technology will be used as a weapon. Known as the "dual-use" problem, a technology with benign applications can also have destructive applications. For example, genetic engineering technology which has had enormous benefits for human health, has been used to introduce genes into bacteria amplifying their virility for use as a terror device. Some of the hypothetical weaponized MNT applications include MNT body armor, improved communication devices, precision guidance systems, miniature satellites, and large scale manufacturing of weapons by self replication. Because of the inevitable development of MNT, it is important to discuss strategies to assess and manage the risks of the development, use, or proliferation of MNT weapons in unwanted hands. This paper seeks to analyze the role of U.S. intellectual property law and other legal doctrines to manage the risks of MNT arms proliferation. Specifically the paper will examine patent enforcement, licensing, anti-copyright circumvention legislation, and trade secret law and will introduce funding and international issues relevant to manage the risks of MNT weapons prevention. This paper will seek to explain whether existing U.S. laws are sufficient to manage the risks of an MNT arms race or if other risk control measures are needed to control risky MNT technologies.

T17.7  Risk Assessment under California's Proposition 65. L. Zeise, Beaumont J., Campbell M., Donald J., Dunn A., Faust J., Golub M., Hoover S., Iyer P., Kaufman F., Krowech G., Li L., Luong S., McDonald T., Morgan J., Oshita C., Tomar R., M. Sandy , G. Alexeeff; Cal/EPA Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment   lzeise@oehha.ca.gov Abstract: Proposition 65 - the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act of 1986 – was passed into law by California voters (Health and Safety Code 25249.5 et seq.). The law requires the State to publish at least once a year of chemicals known to cause cancer or birth defects or other reproductive harm. Under the law, anyone in the course of doing business that knowingly and intentionally causes significant exposures to a listed chemical must first provide clear and reasonable warning, and discharges in significant amounts into sources of drinking water are prohibited. Embedded in the law and its implementing regulations are tiered approaches to hazard identification and dose response assessment. Since the law was passed, over 725 chemicals have been listed as known to the state to cause cancer or reproductive toxicity, eight chemicals have been removed from the list (Title 22 Cal. Code of Regs. section 12000), and over 260 regulatory levels based on dose response assessments have been promulgated (sections 12705 and 12805). Since 1986, the nature of the scientific information relevant to hazard identification and dose response assessments has changed and new quantitative methodologies have been introduced. Current analytical approaches for the listing of chemicals, and evaluating dose response relationships and risk are described, along with the challenge of such assessments for Proposition 65 risk characterizations, especially given the evolving information on human variability in susceptibility and exposure.

T17.8  Spatial Modeling and Human Health Risk Assessment - A SADA Experiment. F Dolislager, R Stewart, T Purucker; The University of Tennessee, Knoxville   fdolislager@utk.edu Abstract: Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) software was used to assist in determining soil remediation volumes at the David Witherspoon (DWI) 901 metal recycling facility in Knoxville, TN. The DWI facility is 10 acres and is situated in a location with residential property adjacent to industrial property. A small stream, Goose Creek, cuts through the site. Radioactive metals from the DOE Oak Ridge Reservation were processed at the site for many years. Contaminated rubble piles and soil exist on the site. Contaminants include metals, radionuclides, PAHs, VOCs, SVOCs, Dioxins, Furans and PCBs. Contaminants are scattered throughout the site. Past determination of soil removal volumes, to meet risk goals, were rejected. SADA was chosen to determine spatial distribution of contaminants, assess the risk for multiple landuses, determine areas of concern and calculate removal volumes. Use of SADA greatly simplified the determination of soil removal volumes to meet risk goals.