M11 - Landscape and Regional Scale Ecological Risk AssessmentChino 2 1:30 - 3:00 pm
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| Chair(s): Charles Menzie, Randy Ryti
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M11.1 Risk Management for Threatened and Endangered Species at US Army Installations. K.E.* von Stackelberg, C. Butler, J. Famely, B. Amos; Menzie-Cura & Associates, Inc. kvon@menziecura.com
Abstract: Preparation for anticipated, unknown, and invariably adverse battlefield conditions requires military training activities involving a variety of smokes and obscurants (S&O), and other similar chemical agents and military unique compounds associated with munitions (MUCs). Many threatened and endangered species (TES) are associated with military training areas where S&O and MUCs are released. Although the military is by definition tasked with protecting United States citizens, the military must also demonstrate compliance with the threatened and endangered species act. Since US Army Installations are often large in size and located in remote areas, they typically provide excellent habitat for a number of TES.
We present a screening level ecological risk assessment framework and risk assessment results for selected TES at 17 US Army Installations. Our analysis identifies data gaps, and provides recommendations to provide more robust risk estimates. TES may be exposed to chemicals present in smokes and obscurants and munitions used in training and maneuver exercises. The screening level risk assessments used conservative assumptions to model upper bound estimates of environmental concentrations of chemicals of concern (COC) and resulting exposures to TES. The framework allows us to prioritize potential risks to TES from typical training exercises, and identifies areas that would benefit from additional research.
We developed a database of munition and S&O usage at 17 installations, and another database that quantifies specific chemical constituents in each of the munition types. We present the method for estimating how much of each chemical ends up in the environment and how TES might be exposed. We also present the results of two comprehensive literature reviews on the fate and effects of MUCs and S&O.
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M11.2 Modeling the risks of non-indigenous species introductions using a patch-dynamics approach incorporating contaminant effects. A. M. Deines, V. Chen, W. G.* Landis; Western Washington University landis@cc.wwu.edu
Abstract: The establishment and spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) has caused concern from stakeholders in affected areas, and has prompted many field and modeling studies to help mitigate and manage effects on native species. However, field studies have proven too idiosyncratic as of yet to make predictions concerning NIS. Modeling studies have added much to the NIS knowledgebase, and the addition of patch dynamics to models has proven insightful. We present a simple stochastic two-species three patch dynamic model derived from Wu et al and Spromberg et al to assist in the generation of useful hypothesis concerning NIS. We find that competition increases population variability, but decreases the number of distinct outcomes possible from the same initial conditions. The main determinant of successful establishment was isolation of the patch of the introduction through a process we call the beachhead effect. Coexistence of species was often possible in local patches, contrary to analytical solutions of Lotka-Volterra equations and numerous modeling studies. Both persistent and degradable toxicants have been incorporated into the model system. Contaminants as currently modeled were important as contributors to the stochastic nature of models leading to a variety of outcomes from some sets of initial conditions. Different outcomes have different probabilities of occurrence with are dependent upon the specific region of state space that represents the initial conditions of the simulation. We make predictions and provide specific research hypotheses as to the causes and effects of NIS establishment, spread, and impacts.
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M11.4 Landscape scale ecological risk assessment of invasive species. W. G.* Landis, A. M. Colnar, A. M. Deines, A. J. Markiewicz; Western Washington University landis@cc.wwu.edu
Abstract: Ecological risk assessment for Invasive species is a developing field of study. Most research on the risk assessment of invasive or non-indigenous species have focused on hazard and exposure, not on risk as currently understood or at a regional scale. At a regional scale there are always multiple other stressors, a variety of environmental gradients, spatial heterogeneity and a wide variety of valued characteristics. These factors make estimating risk a daunting but achievable task. In order to estimate regional risk due to invasive species at a regional scale we use spatially explicit conceptual models based upon the source-stressor-habitat-impact relative risk model as formulated by Landis and Wiegers. This approach is integrated with the Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Paradigm (HPDP) as formulated by J. Wu and colleagues. This type of conceptual models for invasive species have been applied to Cherry Point, Washington and to the Chesapeake Bay. In the Cherry Point Washington area the species of interest are the European Green Crab and the algae Sargassum muticum. In the Chesapeake Bay area the Nun Moth and the Asian Oyster are the invasive species being investigated. Although the Nun Moth is a forest species, our endpoints are at the watershed level. Our efforts to date have demonstrated that the combination of the relative risk model and the HPDP is amenable to estimating risks due to invasive species at a regional scale. Patch dynamics modeling demonstrates that the spatial relationships within a landscape are critical. Contaminants and other stressors serve as confounding factors. Our efforts demonstrate a disconnect between the data needs for estimating regional scale risks and available data. The development of conceptual models for these very diverse set of invasive species should lead to a better documentation of data needs and investigations focused on estimating risks and subsequent management actions.
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M11.4 Overview of spatial approaches to risk assessment in terrestrial and aquatic environments. C Menzie, T Wickwire, D Vorhees, D Burmistrov, T von Stackelberg; Menzie-Cura & Associates camenzie@menziecura.com
Abstract: We present a series of case studies illustrating the application of spatial approaches to ecological and human health risk assessment. The first case involves a physical stressor - temperature - with risks to fish species in the Susquehanna River. The second case illustrates the development of a series of tools for evaluating risks to wildlife species. The latest version of this effort is SEEM, a colaborative project with several investigators on behalf of the Army. The third case study illustrates an approach to estimating risks to people and ecological receptors at the HARS site in the New York Bight. Here, we illustrate the important of including spatial information as well as simulating the movement of fish and spatial pattern of fishing by people. This study includes a survey of fishing activity to reduce uncertainty as well as fish tagging studies. The final case illustrates approaches being developed to communicate spatial information related to human health risk assessments to remedial engineers and decision makers. The "lessons learned" from these experiences will be presented.
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